How many points will be needed to win the league? (74 GD)

How many points will be needed to win the league?

  • 81 - 85

    Votes: 671 67.0%

  • 76 - 80

    Votes: 280 28.0%

  • 70 - 75

    Votes: 50 5.0%
  • Total voters
    1,001
  • Poll closed .
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The good thing for us is that even if we get a few more injuries, suspensions, Covid outbreak or our great run comes to an end; all of these fixtures are still to be played:
Chelsea v United
United v West Ham
Leicester v United
United v Leicester
West Ham v Leicester
Chelsea v Leicester
Chelsea v Everton
West Ham v Chelsea
West Ham v Everton
...because there’s so long to go in the season (we’re over a month behind where we usually would be in mid-February), there are loads of points to be dropped below us yet.
 
Teams that can still reach 80+ points:

City 98
United 88
Leicester 88
Chelsea 84
Villa 84
West Ham 84
Liverpool 82
Everton 82
Tottenham 81
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
The good thing for us is that even if we get a few more injuries, suspensions, Covid outbreak or our great run comes to an end; all of these fixtures are still to be played:
Chelsea v United
United v West Ham
Leicester v United
United v Leicester
West Ham v Leicester
Chelsea v Leicester
Chelsea v Everton
West Ham v Chelsea
West Ham v Everton
...because there’s so long to go in the season (we’re over a month behind where we usually would be in mid-February), there are loads of points to be dropped below us yet.
Click to expand...
Leicester v United already played 2-2
 
7 wins and its over - 77 points.
The reality is - we are Premier League Champions of 2021-22
We could get 93 the way were going. (1 more draw and 1 more defeat)
 
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If you look at our remaining fixtures, there are 10 that we should win, that would put us on 86, even if we lost the rest (arsenal, united, leicester, and chelsea), that will be more than enough to win the league.

I can see us winning 12, drawing 1, and 1 defeat, 93 points, it will be 10-15 more than anyone else.
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
The good thing for us is that even if we get a few more injuries, suspensions, Covid outbreak or our great run comes to an end; all of these fixtures are still to be played:
Chelsea v United
United v West Ham
Leicester v United
United v Leicester
West Ham v Leicester
Chelsea v Leicester
Chelsea v Everton
West Ham v Chelsea
West Ham v Everton
...because there’s so long to go in the season (we’re over a month behind where we usually would be in mid-February), there are loads of points to be dropped below us yet.
Click to expand...
Nobody else is getting anywhere near 80 points
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
The good thing for us is that even if we get a few more injuries, suspensions, Covid outbreak or our great run comes to an end; all of these fixtures are still to be played:
Chelsea v United
United v West Ham
Leicester v United
United v Leicester
West Ham v Leicester
Chelsea v Leicester
Chelsea v Everton
West Ham v Chelsea
West Ham v Everton
...because there’s so long to go in the season (we’re over a month behind where we usually would be in mid-February), there are loads of points to be dropped below us yet.
Click to expand...
villa, spurs, liverpool, and arsenal will also take points off some of these teams (and us potentially), not to mention leeds and wolves probably as well.
 
In these remaining 14 games, all teams can theoretically get 42 points.

Currently Man U and Leicester are closest to us, let's suppose they can average 2pt/game (they are both currently average 1.92pts/game, so basically just doing what their doing), then they could end up with (add 28 pts) 74 pts.

This means we need 18 pts (1.29 pts/game, very awful, barely better than relegation quality) to match that, which is 6W, 0D, 8L. So we can still potentially win the league if we are dog shit and the rest keep doing what their doing.


What if they go on a better run? Very possible, let's say those teams go on a massive 2.5pt/game run (equivalent to a 95 pt season), this means they'd up at 81 pts.

This means we need 25 pts (1.79 pts/game, about a 68pt season) to match that, which is 8W, 1D, 5L. I mean this isn't an AWFUL return, but it's not good and would definitely mean our form dipped. This means we can win the league if the other 2 are phenomenal, and we are play just okay.


Both scenarios are way too unlikely, 1) We play to just barely above relegation level or 2) We play meh, but one of the other 2 go on a phenomenal run. League's done in my mind based on this, probably bad to say this, but the math is convincing me more and more.

So at their best, those teams could end up between 74 and 81 points. The second we win 8 games (80 pts) the league is probably mathematically over. Which could potentially happen in a row, meaning we'd have 6 left before league ends.
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
The good thing for us is that even if we get a few more injuries, suspensions, Covid outbreak or our great run comes to an end; all of these fixtures are still to be played:
Chelsea v United
United v West Ham
Leicester v United
United v Leicester
West Ham v Leicester
Chelsea v Leicester
Chelsea v Everton
West Ham v Chelsea
West Ham v Everton
...because there’s so long to go in the season (we’re over a month behind where we usually would be in mid-February), there are loads of points to be dropped below us yet.
Click to expand...
Leicester/United still need to play each other home/away , how has that happened?
 
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