Coronavirus (2021) thread

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unicorn said:
44 of the deaths reported today from the Liverpool Uni Trust alone, single figures the norm, so I expect the large part of those 44 are contained in the "catch-up" resulting from hospital audits.

As you noted, these catch-ups coming from January when deaths much higher skew the figures reported now that deaths have thankfully fallen.
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I did note that Liverpool number in my reports earlier but it is important I agree.
 
We may not get vaccine passports but it won't be long before vaccination is a requirement for travel insurance.
Also I can see the same requirement attached to health and pension cover.
 
NeilYoungIsBack said:
That's what it looked like to me but your comment made me curious so I had have had a quick play just now with the daily Gov.uk vaccine data released over the last couple of weeks.

My conclusion is that - based on the data released yesterday - the rate of vaccination has indeed nearly recovered.

For example:

  • the data released on Monday showed that vaccinations was only 63% of the level reported 7 days earlier.
  • by Tuesday this had improved, to 75% of the level reported the previous Tuesday.
  • by Wednesday it had improved still further, to 93% of the level reported the previous Wednesday.
  • by yesterday it was at nearly 97% of the level of the previous Thursday.
(There is a very strong pattern in vaccinations, with the data released on Monday always the lowest for the week, normally successively building up to Sunday data, which is usually the highest figure for the week).

But, the big drop off in vaccination rates started in last Friday's data, We will know for sure if the supply problem is behind us at around 4pm this afternoon when today's data is released. If the percentage is well north of 100% then it is well and truly full steam ahead.

I'll update the thread when this new data emerges.
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1st dose + 2nd dose daily total - 521,039, which is around 11% higher than the equivalent total released last Friday.
 
Healdplace said:
We did - Eds !!!

345 all settings deaths

8523 cases

716, 212 pillar 1 & 2 tests - pretty similar to yesterday. So another very low positivity
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Wonderful news in terms of infections and whilst it's not great news that anyone dies the numbers are dropping. We will learn to live with this virus, the quicker the jabs get done the better and it won't be long before a huge degree of normality is back. Hang on in there folks, it's getting better.
 
Healdplace said:
England hospital deaths by age:-

20 - 39 (2) 0.6%

40 - 59 (30) 9.8%

60 - 79 (124) 40.4%

80 PLUS (151) 49.2%

Not much has changed here. Much as past week or so.
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Shouldn't the deaths in the 80 plus age range be much lower now given that nearly all 80 pluses were vaccinated in January ( mostly early to mid) with the three weeks protection kick in by mid February?
Or put another way how many of the 151 people who died were vaccinated?
Or is this a 'catch up' thing?
PS These are genuine questions. I'm not casting doubt on the optimism of the figures.
 
Healdplace said:
I did note that Liverpool number in my reports earlier but it is important I agree.
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You did indeed note it in your comprehensive analysis of the deaths.

Worth putting that alarmingly high daily figure at Liverpool in context, it's almost certainly largely backlog given their normal numbers. I guess the majority of deaths sparked by irresponsible placing of the region in Tier 2 before Christmas will have worked through the system by the end of January.
 
You will not be stunned to hear that the North West went up today with this big fall in cases.

Pretty much everywhere else down - even West Midlands - though at 1053 it was the only other region in four figures.

Frustrating if you live in the NW to see those death numbers today and the struggle to get cases down still being had.

Though the rise was not much - just 103 to 1315 - but there have been three lower totals in the past week alone.

Hopefully next week will be when - though population wise and demographic wise the NW will always have one of the highest numbers.
 
unicorn said:
You did indeed note it in your comprehensive analysis of the deaths.

Worth putting that alarmingly high daily figure at Liverpool in context, it's almost certainly largely backlog given their normal numbers. I guess the majority of deaths sparked by irresponsible placing of the region in Tier 2 before Christmas will have worked through the system by the end of January.
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I agree that much of today seems to be catch up and as I noted the more recent dates all show week to week drops in death numbers which is what I look for in terms of how things are going now.

Here are past 2 weeks 5 day death totals in England hospitals:

441 - 373 - 361 - 361 - 346 - 304 - 302 - 319 - 288 - 287 - 263 - 234 - 222 - 230

Feb 22 the day behind after 4 days is on 181 - if it does not add more than last week tomorrow (as nobody has in a week or two now) then it will be the first sub 200 5 day death total in England hospitals since bonfire night. Nov 5.
 
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Eds said:
Hopefully we will see cases start to drop even further now and maybe get below 9k today and then below 7.5k in a week or so. We are beating this virus and this time next week another 3m+ will have had the 1st vaccine. Clocks move in a few weeks and we can see the light at the end of the tunnel
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Sun is shining, birds singing, City top of the League, cases falling. The light is getting closer.
 
As you see from the briefing just now the doctors agree with my concerns over North West and Midlands where the problems are.

Let's not blow it says Hancock.

With reference to areas where people are taking things too easy and breaking rules as if it is over

It really is not if you live in those areas especially.

They are on a tipping point where cases are stubbornly not going down.

GM today shows that well. 80 of the NW rise today of 103 is in the Greater Manchester.
 
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