Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Did I smoke too much weed last night or was there really some conspiracy theory thread about the vaccine? Must have dreamt it.
 
Northern Ireland data:

3 deaths - was 1 last week - only home nation not down today

137 cases - was 208 last week

8.2% positivity - very low for NI - was 11.3% last week

1102 weekly rolling cases total - down from 1152 yesterday and 1311 last week. This has started falling again after rising a bit last week.

8 Care Home Outbreaks. Down from 12 yesterday and 14 last week.

First time I ever recall seeing this in single figures. In January it was around 150.

166 patients - down 1 on yesterday - was 183 last week.

14 ventilated - same as yesterday - was 18 last week.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
For the first time in the entire pandemic we're now clearly and consistently looking better than the European Union.

Most of that is down to the long and strict lockdown, rather than vaccination

View attachment 12752
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Can you explain why it is down to the lockdown not vaccine. How do you tell what causes the falls?

I agree we have had stricter lockdowns but also have been ahead of vaccinating for 3 months now. Must be starting to have an impact too you would think.

Though I guess age of those where the cases originate is the most likely answer having thought this through.

The cases likely will mostly come from the ones out there and interacting and likely not yet vaccinated.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
For the first time in the entire pandemic we're now clearly and consistently looking better than the European Union.

Most of that is down to the long and strict lockdown, rather than vaccination

View attachment 12752
Click to expand...

I’d hazard it’s more to do with the vaccination programme rather than the severity of any lockdown; the curfew rolls on in the Netherlands. Impossible to say definitively either way, of course.
 
Healdplace said:
Can you explain why it is down to the lockdown not vaccine. How do you tell what causes the falls?
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Sure. Noting that's a graph of cases, not deaths:

1. Most of the fall in cases was prior to any significant numbers of vaccine rollout (transmission being at the very best directly related to the proportion vaccinated)
2. Those most active in transmitting the virus are relatively younger age groups whose vaccination came later or has not yet arrived.
3. The R number has been consistent throughout lockdown (until schools went back at least)- if vaccination was causing the fall in infections you'd expect R to fall consistently as more people were vaccinated.
4. We've seen the impact on deaths just coming through in the last month or so - most of that in the older population, so a relatively small part of the case data.

Where vaccination really comes into play is now:

5. Deaths falling beyond cases and continuing to fall even if cases plateau or rise a little.
6. The proportion protected allowing us to open up without seeing a resurgence in cases.

I don't think this is controversial or contrary to scientific opinion, but very happy to be corrected if so.
 
So the total deaths today with out of hospital England only to add is 94. The lowest on a Friday this year and for most of late last year.

Wk to wk:- 508 v 367 v 352 v 199 v 162 v 94 Today
 
Gabriel said:
I’d hazard it’s more to do with the vaccination programme rather than the severity of any lockdown; the curfew rolls on in the Netherlands. Impossible to say definitively either way, of course.
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See above. Plus even now, from my reading, Netherlands restrictions are less tight than ours (household visits allowed, for instance)
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Sure. Noting that's a graph of cases, not deaths:

1. Most of the fall in cases was prior to any significant numbers of vaccine rollout (transmission being at the very best directly related to the proportion vaccinated)
2. Those most active in transmitting the virus are relatively younger age groups whose vaccination came later or has not yet arrived.
3. The R number has been consistent throughout lockdown (until schools went back at least)- if vaccination was causing the fall in infections you'd expect R to fall consistently as more people were vaccinated.
4. We've seen the impact on deaths just coming through in the last month or so - most of that in the older population, so a relatively small part of the case data.

Where vaccination really comes into play is now:

5. Deaths falling beyond cases and continuing to fall even if cases plateau or rise a little.
6. The proportion protected allowing us to open up without seeing a resurgence in cases.

I don't think this is controversial or contrary to scientific opinion, but very happy to be corrected if so.
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Thank you. That is very clear and makes very good sense and a roadmap for the steps we are about to take.

Which infers there could still be potholes awaiting unseen on the street in front. Hopefully filled in by the vaccine before we get there.
 
Claytop said:
www.bbc.co.uk

Covid: UK death rate 'no longer Europe's worst' by winter

Six other countries were worse affected during the second wave of the pandemic, according to ONS figures.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk

7th for all ages highest cumulative mortality rate in 2020, though 2nd for under 65's
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Russia isn't included in that report. Their vital events statistical authority reported 189k excess deaths for 2020 in early Jan 2021 - some 40% higher than the UK per capita over the same period.
 
The three nations cases with England to com is:- 993.

Wk to wk: 1845 v 1731 v 1130 v 894 v 1080 v 993 Today
 
Healdplace said:
Which infers there could still be potholes awaiting unseen on the street in front. Hopefully filled in by the vaccine before we get there.
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Yes indeed. There is still the potential for a substantial surge if we open up too quickly.

And of course there is huge uncertainty on quantitatively what will happen - it depends on vaccine rollout, how seasonal the virus is, how far people will comply with restrictions, effect of variants, exact vaccine efficacy, etc etc.

Anyone who claims they know exactly how it will pan out is naive.
 
twosips said:
Down and down it goes. Lovely stuff.



(Obviously the lives of those lost are awful before anyone has a go)
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Very very good.

I really feel for the rest of Europe at this point, who must be feeling a bit how we were back in December.

It's particularly pleasing to see cases falling again now the schools testing has unwound, starting to look like the return of schools won't cause a significant uptick. And if that doesn't, the rest of opening up looks much less risky too.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Very very good.

I really feel for the rest of Europe at this point, who must be feeling a bit how we were back in December.

It's particularly pleasing to see cases falling again now the schools testing has unwound, starting to look like the return of schools won't cause a significant uptick. And if that doesn't, the rest of opening up looks much less risky too.
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I'm pleasantly surprised that school hasn't bumped the figures up but, just imagine what they'd likely be if schools were still closed.

I'd have still favoured waiting until after Easter to start the kids back, I know there's pros and cons on both sides of the argument.
 
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