Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Healdplace said:
I actually think it is a good thing if we can only take UK holidays this year. We should be helping our own economy recover not boosting the coffers in countries that have spent all Winter blaming us for all their own mistakes. They are still going on about the British variant creating their new waves. And the dodgy/no brilliant/um no dodgy/ um no brilliant British vaccine causing anti vaccine thoughts in their people.

Summer 2021 should be built around getting our own seaside towns and country retreats and major cities back on track. Nobody going to Benidorm in July will save jobs in Blackpool or Brighton.

I bet there will be a big stay at home discount scheme and campaign too.
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Nobody in the UK works for the international travel industry then? No UK jobs in airlines, trains, travel companies, ferries? No jobs at airports, ports etc. Perhaps not everyone wants to stay at home.
 
Healdplace said:
Obviously nobody can know this other than expectation as even those who had the vaccines in trial have had it under a year. But it might prove to be true.

What they do know though is that antibodies are present in those who had it 3 or 4 months ago at the start of the vaccination programme here - so it seems reasonable that we can say that long and likely more. There as yet seems little sign that these numbers wane fast.

I do not think anybody expects this to be a one shot and out solution as the virus has shown itself adept at mutating into strains that get around barriers. Largely as it is so infectious it gets millions of goes at hitting on a winning lottery ticket. And any that infect more easily and thrive then survive by natural selection. The variant first identified in Kent that sent the Southern UK rates skyrocketing in December is now dominant across Europe (hence their new lockdowns springing up as they are way behind in vaccinating to be ahead of the wave) and others will emerge.

Quite likely some degree of protection will remain even to new ones but it is equally probable that an annual booster jab for the vulnerable will be happening around September/October this year and possibly every year alongside the flu jabs for the ones who are in the priority groups as now. And likely on sale for about £10 to anyone else at Boots like the flu jabs are also. Just to protect over coming winters from the latest variants that have emerged in past months.

This is exactly what happens with the Winter flu jab already. We base it on the new versions that emerged in the Summer where in Australia and other Southern Hemisphere countries they have already had their winter so they know what new variants of flu appeared in that time.
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Two or three years ago, the annual flu jab failed by targetting wrong virus types. Let's hope the annual booster for Covid works every time.
 
Wales data:

6 deaths - was 6 last week

208 cases - was 210 last week

1.6 % positivity - was 1.7 % last week

Weekly Pop score 42 - was 44 yesterday and 42 last week


Think you can call that a flatline. Being driven it seems from North Wales.
 
KS55 said:
Two or three years ago, the annual flu jab failed by targetting wrong virus types. Let's hope the annual booster for Covid works every time.
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There is always that risk as it takes months to plan and manufacture the winter flu jab so it always works off early summer variants in the southern hemisphere and if new ones emerge late they will miss the bus. But it works pretty well most years. Many countries in lockdown next winter as I suspect some will still have to be for a time will help restrict the spread of anything that slips through.
 
Healdplace said:
I actually think it is a good thing if we can only take UK holidays this year. We should be helping our own economy recover not boosting the coffers in countries that have spent all Winter blaming us for all their own mistakes. They are still going on about the British variant creating their new waves. And the dodgy/no brilliant/um no dodgy/ um no brilliant British vaccine causing anti vaccine thoughts in their people.

Summer 2021 should be built around getting our own seaside towns and country retreats and major cities back on track. Nobody going to Benidorm in July will save jobs in Blackpool or Brighton.

I bet there will be a big stay at home discount scheme and campaign too.
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Broadly agree that it's nice. Though I can't deny that the thought of a holiday in Blackpool is depressing as fuck. It's an absolute dive. A truly miserable thought if that's our option ha.
 
Tonster said:
Nobody in the UK works for the international travel industry then? No UK jobs in airlines, trains, travel companies, ferries? No jobs at airports, ports etc. Perhaps not everyone wants to stay at home.
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Nobody wants to stay at home. But if going on holiday for a few days now brings back a new spread then they will be paying for that 'essential' trip to the sun by months of gloom and staying at home not just for themselves.

Unfortunately in a pandemic there are winners and losers and there will be a huge boom in international travel once that is safe and possible. They will reap those rewards.

At the moment we have to beat this terrible virus and not make the mistake of doing too much too fast becaue we think it is worth the gamble.

Been there, done that, ended up buying the face mask.
 
Healdplace said:
Nobody WANTS to stay at home. But if going on holiday for a few days now brings back a new spread then they will be paying for that 'essential' trip to the sun by months of gloom and staying at home not just for themselves.

Unfortunately in a pandemic there are winners and losers and there will be a huge boom in international travel once that is safe and possible. They will reap those rewards.

At the moment we have to beat this terrible virus and not make the mistake of doing too much too fast becaue we think it is worth the gamble.

Been there, done that, ended up buying the face mask.
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Not suggesting we do too much too fast. There’s a roadmap out of lockdown based on checks and data at every step. It’s pretty much certain this is a virus we will have to live with long term so for how long do we stay at home and not return to some normality?
 
Tonster said:
Not suggesting we do too much too fast. There’s a roadmap out of lockdown based on checks and data at every step. It’s pretty much certain this is a virus we will have to live with long term so for how long do we stay at home and not return to some normality?
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I’d say when Europe has got a handle on the virus and vaccination levels are on a par with the UK and US , obviously we need a global effort so that travel can resume worldwide, I’d imagine Australia and New Zealand will be out of bounds until next year .
 
Tonster said:
Not suggesting we do too much too fast. There’s a roadmap out of lockdown based on checks and data at every step. It’s pretty much certain this is a virus we will have to live with long term so for how long do we stay at home and not return to some normality?
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I suspect we will have much more normality more quickly than a lot of the world. And many will be envying our freedom this Summer not staring at the hundreds still in ICUs. A global pandemic means some places are out of it before others. And how those places then open up to the rest of the world dictates whether they stay out or end up going back to restrictions.

I think we have learnt the lesson of not opening up too much, too fast. And know this time when we do open up it has to be for good as it is unlikely that another lockdown would be as well observed.

We have seen it being stressed that this time the easing will be permanent.

So we are almost sure to emerge more slowly than most want from this lockdown as the best way to avoid having to enter another because of doing too much too soon.

As I have said according to the saying - slowly slowly catchee monkey - and here not going slowly slowly will catchee covid.
 
Healdplace said:
I suspect we will have much more normality more quickly than a lot of the world. And many will be envying our freedom this Summer not staring at the hundreds still in ICUs. A global pandemic means some places are out of it before others. And how those places then open up to the rest of the world dictates whether they stay out or end up going back to restrictions.

I think we have learnt the lesson of not opening up too much, too fast. And know this time when we do open up it has to be for good as it is unlikely that another lockdown would be as well observed.

We have seen it being stressed that this time the easing will be permanent.

So we are almost sure to emerge more slowly than most want from this lockdown as the best way to avoid having to enter another because of doing too much too soon.

As I have said according to the saying - slowly slowly catchee monkey - and here not going slowly slowly will catchee covid.
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I’m pretty sure we will look much better than a lot of other countries this summer but EU will gradually get there as supply increases. May 17th is the date set for international travel in our roadmap. But that will not be a free for all and will depend on vaccination status etc and also the Covid state of the individual countries. Travel corridors I’m sure will make a reappearance. No reason to suggest with appropriate caution this can’t be done safely. Nothing is risk free.
 
Wales vaccination update:

1, 231, 830 first doses given - 27, 729 today - was 23, 946 yesterday & 27, 542 last week

329, 530 second doses given - 10, 554 today - was 14, 565 yesterday & 12, 669 last week

Pretty consistent here around 38 to 40 K each time.
 
Zoe App today predicts 4362 cases - down 54 on yesterday's 4416 (which turned out to really be 4802)

Its symptoms check shows another fall in the number in UK predicted to have Covid right now in UK.

It was 78, 389 yesterday and is today down by 2175 to 76, 214
 
Tonster said:
I’m pretty sure we will look much better than a lot of other countries this summer but EU will gradually get there as supply increases. May 17th is the date set for international travel in our roadmap. But that will not be a free for all and will depend on vaccination status etc and also the Covid state of the individual countries. Travel corridors I’m sure will make a reappearance. No reason to suggest with appropriate caution this can’t be done safely. Nothing is risk free.
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A report by PHE showed that travel corridors last summer brought concerning levels of infections back to the UK.

news.sky.com

COVID-19: Greece travel corridor brought in 'a large amount of virus', say UK experts

The study is likely to reignite the debate about travel corridors - expected to return in some form as restrictions are eased.
news.sky.com news.sky.com

I am quite happy to holiday in the UK, there are some beautiful places to visit in the UK from Cornwall to Scotland with some outstanding scenery. We are in a pandemic, and we need to tailor our expectations accordingly. We look at Australia and New Zealand with envy. Their people are able to live their lives with much less restrictions than us (I know that Australia have had lockdowns), but I don’t really understand the desire to get on a plane and travel to another country in a pandemic. If we could live an relatively unrestricted life within the UK, being able to go out, see friends and relatives for a period of time until the situation becomes better in the rest of the world, it has to be better than the current situation surely?
 
However, the truly big Zoe news is that after a week of falls for the North West it now places North West as second lowest in the UK - ahead of the South West and only behind the South East.

I have never seen the North West better placed than this on Zoe - with lower numbers than all three other home nations and five of the seven England regions.

Perhaps that low score last night really was not a fluke. I guess we will see over coming days.
 
Healdplace said:
However, the truly big Zoe news is that after a week of falls for the North West it now places North West as second lowest in the UK - ahead of the South West and only behind the South East.

I have never seen the North West better placed than this on Zoe - with lower numbers than all three other home nations and five of the seven England regions.

Perhaps that low score last night really was not a fluke. I guess we will see over coming days.
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That's bloody great news long may it continue
 
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