Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Sadly bad day for Greater Manchester and clearly now the UK epicentre of cases.

Bolton up to scarily big numbers but other predictions from Zoe too starting to come to roost. Wigan and Tameside up big week to week and Stockport highest in some days.

Highest GM total in months at 260 - up 56 on yesterday and a whopping 107 on last Monday.

The NW total actually FELL by 8 day to day so that 56 is all on GM and some.

And the 107 is from a 154 NW increase week to week which is well over what GM should score as a percentage of that number.
 
Regional Cases Today



Cases show up or down on yesterday and the v number is versus 7 days ago.



SOUTH

East down 23 to 173 v 158

London UP 79 to 352 v 216

South East DOWN 171 to 233 v 182 - Big fall.

South West down 7 to 115 v 127







MIDLANDS

East down `14 to 176 v 169

West down 2 to 164 v 152



NORTH

North East up 24 to 101 v 84


Yorkshire down 4 to 315 v 295 (Still behind the North West)




NORTH WEST down 8 to 402 v 248.

Little change. Still top score in UK


GREATER MANCHESTER

Up 56 day to day to 260. Highest in some weeks. And big chunk of the 402. Well over par.
 
Greater Manchester Cases


260 cases today - up 56 on yesterday. From 402 North West cases.




Bolton - big rise of 27 to top the hundred at 116 - up by a scary 72 on last week. Pop score rise today was 40 - biggest yet and most by anyone in GM for months


Manchester up 5 to 35 which is up 5 from last week too. But a very long way behind Bolton.

Tameside up a staggering 24 in day to 28 which is up 22 on last week.

Wigan also up by 6 on day to 22 - which is up 14 wk to wk.

Stockport also up big by 10 to 19 which is up 5 week to week. First hint of Zoe being right maybe.

Rochdale down 7 on 11 - which is up 2 week to week.

Trafford down 8 to 10 - down 1 wk to wk.



Meaning that the other 3 boroughs stay in single figures today:

Bury up 3 to 7 which is down 3 wk to wk. But not top today.

Salford down 2 also to 7 which is down 8 on last wk.

And top spot today to: Manchester City

oops sorry he he


Oldham down 2 to 5 also - which is 1 down wk to wk.


Weekly total cases:-

Bolton tops 500 weekly cases more than double Manchester and 6 times most of the rest. Bury still easily in the lead now on 39 - the lowest GM weekly cases by anyone in 8 months.

But weekly numbers in several boroughs are rising. Now four over 100 and Stockport close to making it five.


Bury 39, Oldham 65, Trafford 72, Tameside 76, Salford 77. Stockport 92, Wigan 102, Rochdale 112, Manchester 230, Bolton 556.
 
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Healdplace said:
Greater Manchester Cases


260 cases today - up 56 on yesterday. From 402 North West cases.




Bolton - big rise of 27 to top the hundred at 116 - up by a scary 72 on last week. Pop score rise today was 40 - biggest yet and most by anyone in GM for months


Manchester up 5 to 35 which is up 5 from last week too. But a very long way behind Bolton.

Tameside up a staggering 24 in day to 28 which is up 22 on last week.

Wigan also up by 6 on day to 22 - which is up 14 wk to wk.

Stockport also up big by 10 to 19 which is up 5 week to week. First hint of Zoe being right maybe.

Rochdale down 7 on 11 - which is up 2 week to week.

Trafford down 8 to 10 - down 1 wk to wk.



Meaning that the other 3 boroughs stay in single figures today:

Bury up 3 to 7 which is down 3 wk to wk. But not top today.

Salford down 2 also to 7 which is down 8 on last wk.

And top spot today to: Manchester City

oops sorry he he


Oldham down 2 to 5 also - which is 1 down wk to wk.


Weekly total cases:-

Bolton tops 500 weekly cases more than double Manchester and 6 times most of the rest. Bury still easily in the lead now on 39 - the lowest GM weekly cases by anyone in 8 months.

But weekly numbers in several boroughs are rising. Now four over 100 and Stockport close to making it five.


Bury 39, Oldham 65, Trafford 72, Tameside 76, Salford 77. Stockport 92, Wigan 102, Rochdale 112, Manchester 230, Bolton 556.
Click to expand...
2 in 3 days for Oldham it's been a long time even after getting my first jab in February that I feel I can take a little time in the supermarket instead of 'running around' to get out of an enclosed space first thing in the morning.

Hopefully the battle is almost over and we can get back to a new normal soon.
 
Had my 2nd Pfizer today, forgot I had it done (!!), got caught up in the moment and opened the bubbly. What harm can that do?
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Bolton 193 / 84 / UP 109 Testing positive 9.4%

Rochdale 50 / 35 / UP 15 Testing positive 9.7%

Manchester 42 / 33 / UP 9 Testing positive 9.7%

Tameside 33 / 21 UP 12 Testing positive 8.2

Stockport 31 / 23 / UP 8 Testing positive 7.2%

Wigan 31 / 24 / UP 7 Testing positive 8.9%

Trafford 30 / 45 / DOWN 15 Testing positive 7.0 %

Salford 29 / 36 / DOWN 7 Testing positive 9.0%

Oldham 28 / 28 LEVEL Testing positive 9.8%

Bury 20 / 24 / DOWN 4 Testing positive 9.1%



Bolton still climbing miles above the rest 143 ahead of second and another 2021 record high weekly rise of 109. Cannot recall the last three figure weekly Pop rise.

Stockport as Zoe App predicted still creeping up showing what Zoe suggested. But it is falling on Zoe now so may not go much higher.

Manchester has also been edging up a tad like Stockport but Rochdale at the moment the 'closest' to Bolton - as in miles away.

Wigan too has started to edge up a little worryingly and had its highest score in a while today like Stockport.

Oldham and Bury are top of the tree and doing well right now.

But Trafford has slowly reasserted itself to slip down the table (which is good in Pop table not bad) with Salford too doing much the same.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Novavax delayed by manufacturing and quality issues.

Puts criticism of AstraZeneca in perspective.

www.fiercebiotech.com

Novavax delays COVID-19 vaccine regulatory submissions—again

Novavax will not file for approval of its COVID-19 vaccine until July at the earliest, thanks to manufacturing issues related to an assay needed to show regulators that its vaccine manufacturing pr | Novavax will not file for approval of its COVID-19 vaccine until July at the earliest, thanks to...
www.fiercebiotech.com www.fiercebiotech.com
Click to expand...
Excellent evidence for the AZ Court case in Belgium then.
 
Pfizer this earlier this afternoon for me, feel fine. nothing to report.

So, cases are indeed back on their merry way upwards. Now we have to keep an eye on hospitalisation rates.

Top graph = 7 day moving average of cases per region (by specimen date)
Bottom chart = On the day cases per NW area (by specimen date)

The bad thing about the top chart is that the lines in the grey area will only ever go up as data is added in the coming days.

covid_rates_REGIONAL.png

covid_rates_NW.png
 
HOSPITAL DATA

Summary:



Another small daily fall of 23 but that is up on just 3 last Tuesday. Most places down and week to week the NW fall was pretty strong with a fall on every single day going from 203 to 159 (around 20%) suggesting the large regional case rise is not putting people into hospital in the area.

Patient numbers fell in the three nations too - now just 175 from all three of them added together.

So little change but mostly in the right direction.

There were 4338 in hospital in the NW in mid January at the peak - now at just 159. 6 September was the last time fewer were in hospital in the NW and 10 September last time fewer patients were on ventilators. Now 15 in NW rather than at the January peak when there was 417. These dates when last lower in the NW are still a little ahead of the UK average time table that is slipping backwards day by day towards August.


UK total:




Patients down to 1096 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 38, 152 in 113 days) :- lowest since 15 September

Ventilators down to 139 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3938 in 107 days) : lowest since 18 September


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

76 Covid admissions following 80, 77, 88, 96, 76, 98, 92 in the week before.

As you see daily Covid admission numbers in England well under 100 again.




PATIENTS:-

Patients down by 23 to 921 v 1093 last week :- lowest since 15 September

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 33, 415 in 113 days)

Ventilators: Down 9 to 126 v 162 last week :- lowest since 19 September

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3610 in 107 days)



Regions:


Patient // Ventilators // change in past day to today and v last week


East down 5 to 67 v 92 // down 1 to 3 v 8

London Stays at 281 v 292 // down 5 to 54 v 69

Midlands down 2 to 185 v 214// stays at 21 v 25

NE & Yorks down 6 to 140 v 171// down 3 to 20 v 22

North West down 4 to 159 v 203 // down 1 to 15 v 24

South East down 1 to 63 v 82 // Stays at 8 v 9

South West down 5 to 26 v 39 // UP 1 to 5 v 5
 
238 cases in Scotland today

7 of those 238 are in people aged 65+
37 are in the 45-64 bracket

Then spot the unvaccinated population

105 are in 25-44 bracket
87 in 0-24

(Realise this totals 236 and not 238, due to missing age data there's sometimes the odd case or two lacking in this data...Still, we get the picture)
 
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I have noticed a few anecdotal tweets from medical people in India saying that they and their colleagues who have been fully vaccinated are seemingly being protected against the virus with no recorded hospitalisations and experiencing mild symptoms if they do catch it.
How true that is I don't know but it is good news if true and perhaps more evidence that the vaccines are doing what they are supposed to do.
 
Healdplace said:
HOSPITAL DATA


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

76 Covid admissions following 80, 77, 88, 96, 76, 98, 92 in the week before.

As you see daily Covid admission numbers in England well under 100 again.


PATIENTS:-

Patients down by 23 to 921 v 1093 last week :- lowest since 15 September
Click to expand...
Thanks for posting this very reassuring data on such a great day. Only 76 admissions with Covid the key metric.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
238 cases in Scotland today

7 of those 238 are in people aged 65+
37 are in the 45-64 bracket

Then spot the unvaccinated population

105 are in 25-44 bracket
87 in 0-24

(Realise this totals 236 and not 238, due to missing age data there's sometimes the odd case or two lacking in this data...Still, we get the picture)
Click to expand...
Exactly the same thing happens with the N Ireland age ranges for tests I post every few days. But I never pointed it out before as I did not expect anyone to add them up! So thank you for explaining it. As with here it is usually only a couple across 600 or so weekly cases.
 
Just for interest here are the GM Weekly Pop Scores across the last 17 days to show how bad Bolton has been and how suddenly it flipped from the point when this began to happen (in the previous week it had fallen just 3 from 50).

Remember with Pop Scores (in essence cases per 100,000 POPulation) then the lower the better. Going up is bad. Going down is good. By how much up or down the better or worse depending on direction.


17 days ago (25 April) v Today (11 May)

BOLTON 47 v 193 UP Rather a lot!!!

BURY 30 v 20 DOWN a good fall to become best in GM

MANCHESTER 49 v 42 DOWN fairly steadily but up a little more recently

OLDHAM 37 v 28 DOWN has stayed very consistently in this range

ROCHDALE 34 v 50 UP Was stable like Oldham but has started to rise a bit in past few days.

SALFORD 35 v 29 DOWN After rising into the 40s it has been steadily falling since.

STOCKPORT 29 v 31 fell to best in GM at 20 but has risen over past week from top to mid table in a fortnight.

TAMESIDE 28 v 33 UP Has been steady in the 20s but a bit of a leap up today. May be a one off or a trend.

TRAFFORD 34 v 30 Rose up into the 50s in middle but in past few days has been steadily falling.

WIGAN 24 v 31 UP very consistent in the low to mid 20 but in past couple of days risen a bit.
 
Bolton. A Kent II? At some point Covid becomes a mild illness de to vaccination and we will no longer care. Are we there yet, or are we so tired of caring?!

If a virus spreads and it causes only mild illness, does it matter?
 
Marvin said:
Bolton. A Kent II? At some point Covid becomes a mild illness de to vaccination and we will no longer care. Are we there yet, or are we so tired of caring?!

If a virus spreads and it causes only mild illness, does it matter?
Click to expand...

well, i had this exact conversation with someone last night.

when do we stop caring, or should that be when do we start to re-prioritise other issues in life.

Clearly there is much unknown about how the spread of this variant effects everything, like Kent did, so for me we're not quite there but if variant after variant goes through society and we maintain a very steady (low) number of cases, admissions and eventually deaths, then it's probably time to knock it all on the head?

I do wonder about the conversations had behind closed doors that the public are not privvy to, those conversations about accepting the baseline death/hospitalisation rates from covid that will be simply accepted as another risk factor in the population's health. i.e. when it looks extremely stable. 0 deaths a day? 10? dunno. A flu season might see >75 people a day die in the UK, so maybe if the current were numbers were known to be completely stable in a fully functioning society then we're there? Furthermore, i think caution will proceed into 2022 because if this summer is indeed successful and there isnt a serious flare up, that will need to be evidenced in winter conditions also.
 
shemnel said:
well, i had this exact conversation with someone last night.

when do we stop caring, or should that be when do we start to re-prioritise other issues in life.

Clearly there is much unknown about how the spread of this variant effects everything, like Kent did, so for me we're not quite there but if variant after variant goes through society and we maintain a very steady (low) number of cases, admissions and eventually deaths, then it's probably time to knock it all on the head?

I do wonder about the conversations had behind closed doors that the public are not privvy to, those conversations about accepting the baseline death/hospitalisation rates from covid that will be simply accepted as another risk factor in the population's health. i.e. when it looks extremely stable. 0 deaths a day? 10? dunno. A flu season might see >75 people a day die in the UK, so maybe if the current were numbers were known to be completely stable in a fully functioning society then we're there? Furthermore, i think caution will proceed into 2022 because if this summer is indeed successful and there isnt a serious flare up, that will need to be evidenced in winter conditions also.
Click to expand...

The issue with using deaths as a barometer as to when we remove all restrictions is that there is a good chance that a lot of the people dying are doing so with covid, not because of it. The vaccine looks like it is doing its job so for me once we get passed June we should stick to the timeline and not look back.
 
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