Coronavirus (2021) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

I think a 3rd wave is fully expected to be honest. there is no way it couldn't happen with easing of lockdowns. I cant see it being a fraction of the size of the 2nd wave though.

I think there is genuinely such huge uncertainty in terms of vaccine effectiveness, people's behaviour, seasonal effects, transmissibility differences with new variants that it's possible to argue either that it's a total non-issue and we should open up now, or that it's a huge risk and we should stop next week's relaxation.

Indeed, you see both viewpoints advocated here.

If you look at the modelling, scenarios from both almost no wave, to a wave bigger than the 2nd wave Jan peak have the potential to come about.

Personally, my view is that because it's so uncertain our main focus should be to react rapidly to changing data on the ground.

For instance, once the huge outbreak in India became apparent we should have rapidly got them on the red list and thereby delayed variant seeding.

Now, if the local outbreaks we see start to join up into something more systemic, we need to react to that, but equally monitor how severe it is in terms of hospitalisations, deaths.

All just personal opinions.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Hasn’t happened in Israel.

Israel actually had more restrictions at our current level of vaccination.

 

[grunge]

I think there is genuinely such huge uncertainty in terms of vaccine effectiveness, people's behaviour, seasonal effects, transmissibility differences with new variants that it's possible to argue either that it's a total non-issue and we should open up now, or that it's a huge risk and we should stop next week's relaxation.

Indeed, you see both viewpoints advocated here.

If you look at the modelling, scenarios from both almost no wave, to a wave bigger than the 2nd wave Jan peak have the potential to come about.

Personally, my view is that because it's so uncertain our main focus should be to react rapidly to changing data on the ground.

For instance, once the huge outbreak in India became apparent we should have rapidly got them on the red list and thereby delayed variant seeding.

Now, if the local outbreaks we see start to join up into something more systemic, we need to react to that, but equally monitor how severe it is in terms of hospitalisations, deaths.

All just personal opinions.

Sorry my post should say "I can see it being a fraction of the 2nd wave". accidentally added the t to make it cant!.

I think cases will rise, but I dont think as bad as 2nd wave. I think hospitalisations and deaths will rise but by a much smaller fraction.

baring mutations etc.

I agree though we need to not be complacent. Im fully expecting Manchester to be in a regional lockdown soon or at least have the move for the 17th delayed.

 

[ancoats]

Why? Opening schools didn’t affect cases. Outdoor mixing didn’t affect cases. Opening outdoor hospitality and non essential retail didn’t affect cases. Now we have indoor hospitality opening and many tens of millions more vaccinated including virtually all over 50’s and all vulnerable. Why the statement deaths could be up in triple numbers again? Hasn’t happened in Israel.

its what happens when you have 2 to 3 weeks of mixing and i have been around town and manchester and people are not doing the mask and spaces and large groups of mixing ? just walk around ancoats and new islington and you will see 1000s of people not giving a fuck about covid-19

i think people have got the wrong idea that the vaccines will kill the virus and everything is ok ? also this new indian covid-19 is bad and can live longer in the summer and sun and spread fast

 

[wolfie1988]

2657 cases and 11 deaths.

189 of the cases come from Bolton

 

[splinter]

21st of June won't happen

 

[grunge]

Why? Opening schools didn’t affect cases. Outdoor mixing didn’t affect cases. Opening outdoor hospitality and non essential retail didn’t affect cases. Now we have indoor hospitality opening and many tens of millions more vaccinated including virtually all over 50’s and all vulnerable. Why the statement deaths could be up in triple numbers again? Hasn’t happened in Israel.

The exact same thing was said last year when we started to unlock.

the main thing will be if we can keep the hospital numbers down. if this runs rife through the un vaccinated ages then we're still at risk of overrunning the NHS.

 

[Tonster]

Israel actually had more restrictions at our current level of vaccination.

Maybe but not by much. What I can’t understand is the view that we will inevitably be heading to triple digit deaths shortly. Really though, who will be dying in those sorts of numbers given our vaccine roll out status. Im not suggesting a free for all, but as it stands by June 21st another 8/10 million should have had the 1st jab. Especially as it cuts transmission too

 

[Tonster]

The exact same thing was said last year when we started to unlock.

the main thing will be if we can keep the hospital numbers down. if this runs rife through the un vaccinated ages then we're still at risk of overrunning the NHS.

And last year nobody was vaccinated

 

[grunge]

And last year nobody was vaccinated

Last year 50% of all Hospital cases were under 50 too. most of whom are still not vaccinated.

I dont personally think we're in for triple figure deaths from it unless there is a shit in immunity but we still need to be careful. Especially with this Indian variant.

 

[Tonster]

Last year 50% of all Hospital cases were under 50 too. most of whom are still not vaccinated.

I dont personally think we're in for triple figure deaths from it unless there is a shit in immunity but we still need to be careful. Especially with this Indian variant.

Agreed. But most deaths certainly weren’t were they? Hence my comment regarding ‘triple digit deaths’. And by end June many more under 50’s will be jabbed won’t they too? Not suggesting we shouldn’t be careful but fucking fed up of hearing statements as mentioned (not you I know). The path to normality was vaccines. We are nearly there, we have to get back to normality for the sake of everyones sanity as soon as safely possible.

 

[Scottyboi]

Last year 50% of all Hospital cases were under 50 too. most of whom are still not vaccinated.

I dont personally think we're in for triple figure deaths from it unless there is a shit in immunity but we still need to be careful. Especially with this Indian variant.

How many of that 50% were high risk people who will have been priority for a vaccine?

 

[BlueAnorak]

Good news but Indian B.1.617.2 is the variant of concern not B.1.617.1. It is unlikely that B.1.617.2 will be a lot worse though.

 

[KennyG]

Main issue with surge vaccinations like this is the 2/3 week lead time it takes for the vaccines to kick in. probably 2/3 weeks to vaccinate and 2/3 weeks on top before the vaccine kicks in.

apparently France did have some success with it though.

If you are vaccinated whilst infected, that’s more likely to leave you with complications, too much for your body to adapt to. Also, how effective is the current vaccine against this variant. Lots of issues.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Hospital numbers ARE still falling in all home nations as my nightly report shows. It seems a little slower as some are going in to be assessed. But the icu numbers and death numbers are still falling.

As for Bolton - even in the NW as per the data I posted last night the region has fallen every single day in the past week of the Bolton outbreak in terms of patient numbers and is the only England region to do so. Tiny falls most days but no rises even of 1 so far.

Ventilators have fallen over that week as well and are now at just 158 patients and 14 on ventilators.
A week ago that NW number was 178 patients and 24 ventilators

You would expect a lag from infection to hospital but as yet Bolton does not seem to be showing up in the data outside case numbers. There has not been a day in the past couple of weeks now in which admissions in England with Covid have been above 100.

That is because the age range of those getting Covid is mostly under 20. We really need those stats to validate government decisions.

 

[KennyG]

Wow. I'm surprised that the 50-55 age group is only 83%. If you look at the stats from earlier in the pandemic, this is the age range where serious cases bump up significantly. A lot of people clearly have a lot of faith in their own superpowers!

Im 43 and I have serious reservations about taking it, is anyone else in any doubt?

 

[antspider]

They have jobs. They were not recruited via the Job Centre

What! There was me thinking Boris employed a bunch of unemployed scientists.. I feel such a fool .

 

[Healdplace]

Unfortunately GM is starting to look a little concerning.

It is not just Bolton that is skyrocketing with more than TRIPLE the cases today as 7 days ago. But Manchester has shot right up too - at double all of the last couple of weeks daily case numbers on 71.

Other boroughs as yet less of a concern though Stockport is on 19 for third successive day and Wigan up to a recent high at 23. Small signs there of things going awry.

Nobody else in real trouble but hints of a problem.

Only Oldham has stayed low and is in single figures today. Though Rochdale and Salford also down week to week. Everyone else up.

Cases are a huge rise on yesterday - inevitably - given that between them Bolton and Manchester are 100 above their total yesterday on their own and 166 week to week between them.

By far the main reason that GM is up by 118 from yesterday - highest single day rise in many months- at 365

Which is also 173 up from last weeks 192.

As you can see whilst others are a little up Bolton alone is up by most of those rises and Manchester has contributed most of the rest today.

None of the other 8 GM boroughs rose today - either day to day or week to week - by more than single figures.

The GM total of 365 is from a North West total of 578 - miles ahead of every other region - Yorkshire in second is on 333 and FELL today. That NW total is up 178 day to day and 208 up on last Thursday. Again mostly thanks to Bolton and Manchester it would seem.

No question where the epicentre is. Starting to wonder if City will be allowed any fans next week. Hope it does not come to that. Not there yet I think. But things might have to change or GM could easily soon face special restrictions if evidence mounts this is spreading.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Im 43 and I have serious reservations about taking it, is anyone else in any doubt?

Do you have a bath? You have a higher chance of drowning in it (1/650,000) than dying of clots associated with AZ jab (1/680,000)
As to driving a vehicle. You really shouldn't go anywhere near one if you are worried about problems from having a Covid vaccination. Thats a 1/20,000 chance every year of your life.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

What I can’t understand is the view that we will inevitably be heading to triple digit deaths shortly.

I agree that's not inevitable, or even likely.

But it is possible, so we should be cautious and act rapidly if things start to go south.

Just my opinion.