Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Tonster said:
How is it a problem everywhere? Cases are just over 2,000 today which is fairly typical (if not a little lower than the weekly average) of the daily average we’ve been at for two months now.
Wasn’t the whole plan, to test and isolate and now vaccinate the problem areas?
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‘Cases’ down 10% on last week despite the rampant Indian variant as well. Not only that, but if the vaccine doesn’t work against this variant, it doesn’t really matter, as we can’t keep treating this virus with more lockdowns.
 
Tonster said:
Cases are just over 2,000 today which is fairly typica
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New variant cases can be hidden in that.

Ie of "old" variant is falling, and "new" rising, everything looks ok until suddenly its not because the new one continues to rise.

That's the concern, and it's exactly what happened with the Kent variant.
 
Greater Manchester Cases


262 cases today - down 103 on day. From 400 North West cases.




Bolton - promising fall - of 54 - to 135 - up 60 on last week - half yesterdays rise. Pop score rise today was 47 down quite a bit but also second worst in this Bolton outbreak. So hopeful. But just one day and needs to become a trend before it means anything.


Manchester IS great news - though - after yesterday's concerning 71 - down miles to just 24. This is down 15 from last week. Huge gap between everyone in GM and Bolton still. Which is of course good news.

Bury up 7 to also be on 18 which is up 14 wk to wk. Yes - Bury not the lowest and up in third place! Borders Bolton of course so hopefully not a trend. But highest here in a while.

Wigan down 5 on day to also be on 18 - which is up 6 wk to wk.

Tameside up 5 on 16 which is up 7 wk to wk

Rochdale up 3 on 16 - which is down 6 week to week.

Stockport down 4 on 15 which is up 7 on last week.

Trafford down 1 to 10 - and down 2 wk to wk.



And that leaves just two boroughs in single figures today:-


Salford down 6 to 6 which is down 4on last week.



And top again is:-


Oldham down 3 to 4 - which is 13 down wk to wk.



Weekly total cases:-


Bolton tops 800 weekly cases and keeps climbing despite better day.

Bury - loses the lead in a big switchover to Oldham - now doing best in GM.

But weekly numbers in several boroughs are rising. Now five over 100 as Stockport numbers have been heading towards this all week - happily only quite slowly.

Oldham 46. Bury 59, Salford 69, Trafford 73, Tameside 85, Rochdale 101, Stockport 106, Wigan 118, Manchester 255, Bolton 811.
 
Tonster said:
And if they don’t? Lockdown for ever. Think it through
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i have and its an option that should be used until all those that can have a vaccine have had it. We havent reached that point yet in Bolton have we? Once that point is reached then i agree there is no point in further lockdowns.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
i have and its an option that should be used until all those that can have a vaccine have had it. We havent reached that point yet in Bolton have we? Once that point is reached then i agree there is no point in further lockdowns.
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What are you going to do? Tie them down. It’s not mandatory so you will never get 100%. It’s not an option
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Except they're currently vaccinating more per capita than we are, and we're not three months ahead, as I went through the arithmetic above, it's about 5 weeks.

But no reason to let the facts get in the way of a good story.
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A rolling 7 day vaccination rate higher than the UK by 0.1 per 100 people per day does not get Germany close to the UKs total vaccination numbers (per capita) in 5 weeks or 35 days.
Come on now do the maths.
I'll be kind and say you missed the UK vacination numbers gradually accelerating over the last 2 weeks.
 
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I wonder if the delay to the press conference was because there were arguments as to whether the easements on Monday should go ahead or be delayed? And the doubts now about easements in June was the compromise?
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Bolton 282 / 124 / UP 158 Testing positive 9.5%

Manchester 47 / 35 / UP 12 Testing positive 9.7%

Rochdale 45 / 43 / UP 2 Testing positive 9.7%

Tameside 37 / 21 UP 16 Testing positive 8.2

Stockport 37 / 27 / UP 10 Testing positive 7.2%

Wigan 36 / 26 / UP 10 Testing positive 8.9%

Trafford 31 / 37 / DOWN 6 Testing positive 7.1 %

Bury 31 / 22 / UP 9 Testing positive 9.1%

Salford 26 / 31 / DOWN 5 Testing positive 9.1%

Oldham 20 / 28 DOWN 8 Testing positive 9.8%




Bolton still climbing above the rest by 235 ahead of second - this gap is increasing every day which is awful news for Bolton but good news for GM that nobody is emulating its rise yet and closing the gap. Which can only occur if someone else escalates or Bolton steadily falls. Manchester is not showing signs of that happily.

Stockport like most in GM is just going up slightly and not escalating fast but they and Manchester with their population size are the most likely to see outbreak so need watching.

Wigan is a bit like Stockport as in August when Bolton last saw a big number rise. Fingers crossed there is no cross contamination this time around.

Bury is possibly the one to watch as close to Bolton and up today quite a bit. Loses its top spot on weekly cases.

To Oldham who is currently best in GM.

Remember going down in this table is good not bad!
 
Watching Boris trying to justify not putting India on the red list Earlier , he is such a wriigler, bollox about numbers not being high enough to justify placing India on the red list. Done it again Boris, too little too late and we still get idiots voting for him because our vaccination programme is going well. The vaccination programme has got fuck all to do with Boris. The only good thing he did was to set up an organisation that was independent of government and the NHS.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I mentioned the Telegraph earlier.

This lady is a Telegraph columnist, and one of the many strident voices against mainstream science on COVID.

Today, she displays her total ignorance of COVID specifically and genetics and immunology generally.

For a football analogy, this is the equivalent of claiming that as swapping me for KDB is just one player different, City would be just as likely to win the Champs league with me in the side.

(She's also wrong about it being only one mutation from the original "wild type" virus)

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Allison Pearson is a complete and utter Covidiot who has demonsted her covidiocy on a weekly basis since June 2020.
 


Haven't really looked into this further, but I've heard the Seychelles mentioned a few times now for all the wrong reasons. Wonder what the script is over there.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
I think Fergal Walsh from the BBC wins the award for the most stupid question of the briefing.

How likley is it that the unlocking of the 21st of June will go ahead Prime Minister?
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That's what I said too. Bloody stupid question, particularly as they have effectively asked the same question for 12 months now and we all know the answer.
 
Tonster said:
Bollocks. Nothing changed tonight. Nothing. Talk of speeding up vaccinations, caution in hotspot areas. That’s it.
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Oh come on surely you can see what's going on here?
It's surely gone beyond a pandemic now
 
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