Coronavirus (2021) thread

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artfuldodger said:
I’m part of a trial. There are S antibodies which come from a vaccination. And N antibodies which come from having had COVID. In our family, my 21 year old unvaccinated son has none, Ive had 2 jabs and have S antibodies, my partner and daughter have both N and S. They’re both vaccinated but had no idea they’ve ever had COVID.
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A bit more detail if anyone is interested

S= "Spike"
N = "Nucleocapsid"

Different parts of the virus.

The (current) vaccines only encode the spike protein.

Explainer:

www.technologynetworks.com

COVID-19 Antibody Testing: S vs. N Protein

<i>Technology Networks</i> spoke to Dr Iswariya Venkataraman, Scientific Affairs Lead at EUROIMMUN US, to learn about the differences between the S and N proteins and what makes them suitable as target antigens in serology testing.
www.technologynetworks.com www.technologynetworks.com
 
roubaixtuesday said:
In which case, you'll be able to provide links to these " way off" forecasts.

Typically, what's happened is a range of scenarios is evaluated. Such as "if we do nothing, we can expect deaths in the range of X to Y". The government then takes action, deaths are below X and idiots pronounce the forecast was wrong.

This is akin to building a sea wall, then confidently declaring it was a waste of money because flooding didn't happen.

Actually, the most cogent criticism of SAGE is that they were too complacent of the risks before the first wave, facilitated a disastrous "herd immunity" policy to be followed, and didn't follow the evidence from around the world that doubling times were half what they initially were modelled as.
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To be fair their models around spring were hopeless and they’ve U-turned on them as per one of the recent press conferences. Mainly due to underplaying the effectiveness of vaccines which seems strange as they’re the only realistic way out.

www.spectator.co.uk

How did Sage get it so wrong?

Professor Neil Ferguson struck an unusually optimistic tone this week. With just one Covid death reported on Monday, and infection levels at an eight-month low in the UK, the architect of the original lockdown said: ‘The data is very encouraging and very much in line with what we expected.’ The...
www.spectator.co.uk www.spectator.co.uk

www.dailymail.co.uk

SAGE advisers downgrade warnings on UK's third wave Covid death toll

London's Imperial College Covid-19 Response Team originally warned dozens of thousands more people would die by June 2022 but better-than-expected vaccines have led them to downgrade the warning.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk

There may be a hint of being burnt in the past and so hamming up the dire warnings may be a defence mechanism to avoid complacency. Tim Spector was always very critical of the doomsday scenarios after the vax programme had really started being felt and he’s been proved right (so far). In reality, SAGE can be as gloomy as they want because their brief is unlikely to include the horrendous economic and psychological impact of doom mongering. It’s akin to asking a road safety ‘expert’ what should be done to prevent crashes on the road and being told that the safest way is to ban all cars forever. Of course, that’s not practical hence politicians have to balance the issues and make these tough decisions.
 
everythingchangesbutblue said:
I am immune supressed so had an antibody test after my 1st vaccine which was negative. I have since been told by my doctor that i was only tested to see if i had antibodies from a previous covid infection and not vaccine induced antibodies. It seems that the 2 are different and a test has to specifically look for each. Something about looking for spike protein antibodies. There is a test available online( Roche i think) that says it looks for both. Im thinking of ordering one.
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I take a heavy dose of immuno suppressants and i enquired whether this meant I was less likely to produce antibodies when vaccinated. The answer was that no one knows but trials are taking place with results due later in the year. I have had my second vaccine so just hoping for the best. l may do a test when my jab is matured and I have taken a few weeks immuno-suppressants.
 
davealvers said:
To be fair their models around spring were hopeless and they’ve U-turned on them as per one of the recent press conferences
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No, this is just wrong.

Nobody knew exactly how effective vaccines would be, or how wide the take up would be.

A range of scenarios with different assumptions was looked at.

That's not "being wrong", it's dealing with uncertainty.
 
davealvers said:
Tim Spector was always very critical of the doomsday scenarios after the vax programme had really started being felt and he’s been proved right (so far).
Click to expand...


Tim Spector has generally taken a libertarian approach and has been very far from right on many occasions.

www.spectator.co.uk

The second wave appears to have peaked before lockdown

It was only four weeks ago that Boris Johnson plunged Britain into a second lockdown. The Prime Minister, flanked by Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance, said that he could not ignore the modelling. Deaths, the Prime Minister explained, could reach ‘several thousand a day’, with a ‘peak of...
www.spectator.co.uk www.spectator.co.uk

Which isn't to knock him, but to take his views in the light of overall scientific community, not as some sort of guru.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
No, this is just wrong.

Nobody knew exactly how effective vaccines would be, or how wide the take up would be.

A range of scenarios with different assumptions was looked at.

That's not "being wrong", it's dealing with uncertainty.
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I get that modelling is always going to be an uncertain science and is only as good as the assumptions used …. ‘S**t in, s**t out’ as we used to say. But these are the scenarios presented to the public and so it’s not unreasonable that they will be critiqued later on both postive and negative. But you’re generally sensible and don’t launch into hysteria - hence the ‘steady as she goes with the opening up whilst keeping a close eye on things’ line is one I agree with but of course plenty of others are flapping.

The point I’m trying to make is for those that think that ‘follow the science’ slavishly is always the answer when in reality they can only try their best with uncertain assumptions which can be spectacularly wrong. Just following the science which only considers the epidemiology and doesn’t factor economic etc wouldn’t work and so the polticians are the ones that have to take the advice and make decisions. Their messaging is all over the place though which causes credibility and confidence issues for all sides.

Those that are petrified of life will still hang on every word and so doom mongering won’t increase their ‘compliance’…..but vast swathes of the population have stopped listening.

FYI I’ve had my jab and did my LFT test last night before I get accused of being a ‘denier’ again. It is possible to realise we have a problem but still question and pressure test government actions for those that aren’t aware.
 
davealvers said:
FYI I’ve had my jab and did my LFT test last night before I get accused of being a ‘denier’ again. It is possible to realise we have a problem but still question and pressure test government actions for those that aren’t aware
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I wasn't trying to label you as a denier, my apologies if it came across that way.

At the moment, things are massively uncertain with the new variant, which makes everything difficult. The uncertainty covers the full range of "no real problem" to "significant third wave imminent". Unfortunately people who, entirely understandably, advocate for either extreme tend to dominate the argument.

I've just had my second jab this morning :-)

Steady as she goes!
 
grunge said:
Name them?

there are 2 that come to mind,

1. was the 500k deaths if we do nothing. and with 151k deaths so far with all the measures and lockdowns id say that was probably an underestimate if we did nothing. we over ran ICU in some places even with lockdowns. if we did nothing we'd have been hit like India is right now.

2. late last year Whitty and Vallance presenting graphs to say what the growth would look like which was maybe a month out.

Also, small point, most of what has hit the press is when a single member of sage speaks out from there own data set. Sage is a large group of experts that provide there own expert points which will all be taken into consideration or ignored by the government.
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It’s become a bit of a culture to say SAGE were wrong about things, but when you actually look at things properly they’ve not really been wrong about anything.
 
I’m taking part in antibody testing at work. Been given a kit to take home and have to provide a blood sample.

Be interesting to see if I have antibodies.

But for anyone more clued up than me, does that mean I’ve had SARS-CoV-2 or could they be antibodies from other coronaviruses I may have had?
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I wasn't trying to label you as a denier, my apologies if it came across that way.

At the moment, things are massively uncertain with the new variant, which makes everything difficult. The uncertainty covers the full range of "no real problem" to "significant third wave imminent". Unfortunately people who, entirely understandably, advocate for either extreme tend to dominate the argument.

I've just had my second jab this morning :-)

Steady as she goes!
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well if it is uncertain they seem to be certainly trying to get people jabbed quickly in the hotspot areas.

that certainly is good evidence to me that the vaccines work. Otherwise what’s the point ?

get jabbed on get on with your life.
 
KS55 said:
I take a heavy dose of immuno suppressants and i enquired whether this meant I was less likely to produce antibodies when vaccinated. The answer was that no one knows but trials are taking place with results due later in the year. I have had my second vaccine so just hoping for the best. l may do a test when my jab is matured and I have taken a few weeks immuno-suppressants.
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I had my 2nd jab 3 weeks ago tomorrow. I think i will order that antibody test today. Fingers crossed.
 
Zoe App

Predicted Cases 2258 - down 145. Third straight fall after a couple of weeks of steady rises.

North West FALLS out of the mid pink top level leaving just Yorkshire and Scotland still there.

Predicted symptomatic cases 32, 634 (down by just 13 but again third straight fall)




NORTH WEST NUMBERS



(Predicted active cases / Estimated cases per million population locally / Both V yesterday)


OLDHAM 32 / 141 v 68 / 290 - a 50% drop in the day

BOLTON 29 / 103 v 215 / 758 - Another big drop to almost nothing. Let us hope Zoe is right and just a day or so ahead of the official data as it often can be.

The two areas of concern now not at all according to Zoe.



Others GM Areas:-



BURY 45 / 241 v 43 / 228 - small rise but nothing significant

MANCHESTER 80 / 147 v 86 / 157 - another small fall

ROCHDALE 16 / 75 v 18 / 81 - like most of the above down slightly day to day

SALFORD 21 / 84 v 21 / 82 - no real change here but very low as real cases show.

STOCKPORT 73 / 254 v 53 / 183 - unfortunately a modest rise here after recent huge falls. Is this spill over from neighbouring High Peak?

TAMESIDE 32 / 141 v 19 / 87 - same as above for Stockport and High Peak's neighbour.

TRAFFORD 51 / 218 v 84 / 358 - well down on yesterday and below Stockport now

WIGAN 32 / 98 v 35 / 108 - small fall


Chorley has also fallen out of the pink zone at just 80 / 693 v 128 / 1107


Fylde (Blackpool) is a little up on 65 / 827 v 62 / 782 but not yet in the pink zone




High Peak (Glossop/Whaley Bridge/Buxton) is up by only a little on 208 / 2273 v 204 / 2230

But High Peak is now far and away the worst area on Zoe in the North West. The only one over 1000 and around where Bolton was for much of last week.

And the only two areas in GM slightly rising today - not falling - Trafford and Stockport - are the two that border here.

Slight concern to watch carefully.

If you are reading Elise and still in the job look into this please.
 
Bedford being reported as seeing a huge spike in cases, and also Blackburn, High Peak, Erewash (on the way down) and Bolton (obviously).

Bolton really kicked off in late April so we should be getting a hospital signal in the data very soon, if one is to happen
 
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