Coronavirus (2021) thread

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shemnel said:
Bedford being reported as seeing a huge spike in cases, and also Blackburn, High Peak, Erewash (on the way down) and Bolton (obviously).

Bolton really kicked off in late April so we should be getting a hospital signal in the data very soon, if one is to happen
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Hopefully that hospital spike never appears in any significant degree. We will get several days data today as it never gets published over the weekend so we might get an idea. NW has been falling very slowly and that might have been because of the new variant reducing its fall. But Zoe is showing Bolton way down over the past few days in symptomatic cases. It is not even in the watch zone there now. Which is encouraging.

I have been flagging up High Peak for the last few days on the Zoe App reports.

As you see above your post today it is now left as the ONLY pink zone in the NW and the only two GM boroughs slightly rising today (Stockport and Tameside) both border it.

Hope it does not take a week for those in control to act like they did with Bolton.

I maybe will have to talk to Elise though I do not like interfering in politics.
 
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shemnel said:
Bedford being reported as seeing a huge spike in cases, and also Blackburn, High Peak, Erewash (on the way down) and Bolton (obviously).

Bolton really kicked off in late April so we should be getting a hospital signal in the data very soon, if one is to happen
Click to expand...
Seems they’re not bothered (according the Guardian)
www.theguardian.com

Bemused Bedford shrugs off arrival of Indian Covid variant

Residents seemed unfazed by the town’s status as a hotspot for new cases
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
Latest national and regional data on prevalence of the India variant.

Still growing strongly across all regions at 9th May.

Implication of this, I think is that the plateau in case numbers may be *entirely* due to this variant, we would have seen a continuing decrease otherwise.

Also, and much more concerning, that as the Kent variant did, this hidden growth will now become apparent once it's grown enough to be dominant.

A significant relaxation today brings with it the prospect of a further speeding of that growth.

All of which explains the caution behind the messaging on today's opening up.

 
roubaixtuesday said:
Latest national and regional data on prevalence of the India variant.

Still growing strongly across all regions at 9th May.

Implication of this, I think is that the plateau in case numbers may be *entirely* due to this variant, we would have seen a continuing decrease otherwise.

Also, and much more concerning, that as the Kent variant did, this hidden growth will now become apparent once it's grown enough to be dominant.

A significant relaxation today brings with it the prospect of a further speeding of that growth.

All of which explains the caution behind the messaging on today's opening up.

Click to expand...

21 June won't happen..
 
England hospital deaths over past 3 days.

SATURDAY

4 with 1 in NW - in Manchester. Also one each in NE/Yorks (Newcastle) and Midlands (2) ( 1 Lincolnshire - 1 North Midlands)

2 aged 40 - 59 and 2 aged 60 to 79. 0 over 80.

Previous Saturdays 13 with 2 NW, 16 with 4 and 20 with 2



SUNDAY

1 - in the Midlands ( Birmingham) - Aged 80 Plus

Previous Sundays 2 with 0 NW, 3 with 1 and 6 with 0.



MONDAY

3 - 1 London (Barts), 2 Midlands (1 each in Shrewsbury + Sherwood Forest)

1 aged 50 - 59, 2 aged 60 - 79, 0 over 80.

Previous Mondays 3 with 0 NW, 3 with 0 and 4 with 0.


Still excellent numbers - no hint of the variant denting this fall.

There will be several illnesses causing more deaths than this right now I expect.
 
Here are the 5 day death numbers since 1 May in England hospitals:

8 - 8 - 8 - 7 - 13 - 6 - 6 - 6 - 5 - 2 - 12 - 6 (Total 87)


The previous 12 days of 5 day totals were:-

11 - 16 - 14 - 15 - 15 - 6 - 13 - 9 - 9 - 9 - 8 - 7 (Total 132)


The days after 12 May - last 5 day total - are currently:-

13 May 1 after 4 days

14 May 2 after 3 days

15 May 2 after 2 days

16 May 0 after 1 day.

No explanation needed to show this is pretty darned good news.
 
Scotland data:

0 deaths - was 0 last week

161 cases - was 168 last week

1.6% positivity - was 1.6% last week

68 patients - up 4 since Friday - was 72 last week

3 Ventilated icu - same as Friday - was 6 last week
 
Northern Ireland data:

1 death - was 0 last week

82 cases - was 76 last week

6.6% positivity - was 6.0% last week

3 Care Home outbreaks - down 1 on Friday - was 5 last week

Rolling 7 day cases total 616 - was 676 Friday and 639 last week

32 patients - down 7 on Friday - was 57 last week

2 Ventilated - down 1 on Friday - was 3 last week

Really good numbers here again.
 
So that is 5 deaths today with just England out of hospital to come - often none on Monday.

Last week it was 7

And 334 cases from the 3 nations with England to come (and caveat that Wales is for 48 hours)

Last week it was 348 cases (also with double day cases from Wales)
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Latest national and regional data on prevalence of the India variant.

Still growing strongly across all regions at 9th May.

Implication of this, I think is that the plateau in case numbers may be *entirely* due to this variant, we would have seen a continuing decrease otherwise.

Also, and much more concerning, that as the Kent variant did, this hidden growth will now become apparent once it's grown enough to be dominant.

A significant relaxation today brings with it the prospect of a further speeding of that growth.

All of which explains the caution behind the messaging on today's opening up.

Click to expand...


Interesting, so the other variants are vanishingly small, in comparison. The Indian variant, as we all sort of knew, is our chief concern now and raises its ugly head just in the weeks running up to our biggest rule relaxations. Bad timing and will cause a lot of consternation in the population, should it grow into a hospital threat.

At the moment i still dont have a feeling for the latter. I think by the end of the week we'll know a bit more....
 
Can't help but feel these next 2/3 weeks are absolutely crucial. Let's be honest - vast majority of this country is going to be acting relatively normally now. Visiting friends indoors, going restaurants/pubs, back in the office at work etc. If it's going to spike, it's now that it's likely going to happen. If in three weeks we're sat here with that new variant relatively under control and admissions and cases still very low, then really... well we're likely gonna be okay.
 
shemnel said:
Interesting, so the other variants are vanishingly small, in comparison. The Indian variant, as we all sort of knew, is our chief concern now and raises its ugly head just in the weeks running up to our biggest rule relaxations. Bad timing and will cause a lot of consternation in the population, should it grow into a hospital threat.

At the moment i still dont have a feeling for the latter. I think by the end of the week we'll know a bit more....
Click to expand...
Have we seen any spike in hospitalisation, given that the Indian variant has been about and spreading for a while?

I thought hospital admissions had also plateaued below 100 a day.
 
twosips said:
Can't help but feel these next 2/3 weeks are absolutely crucial. Let's be honest - vast majority of this country is going to be acting relatively normally now. Visiting friends indoors, going restaurants/pubs, back in the office at work etc. If it's going to spike, it's now that it's likely going to happen. If in three weeks we're sat here with that new variant relatively under control and admissions and cases still very low, then really... well we're likely gonna be okay.
Click to expand...

Yeah thats my thinking, if in 3/4 weeks we're not seeing a big hospitalisation increase ( there will be some. but how big ) than we're all good I feel.
 
unicorn said:
Have we seen any spike in hospitalisation, given that the Indian variant has been about and spreading for a while?

I thought hospital admissions had also plateaued below 100 a day.
Click to expand...

The Indian variant has only taken hold in Bolton in the last week or so, if a spike happens it will start soon.

All eyes will be on Bolton for the next 2/3 weeks thats for sure.
 
Would imagine the final restrictions won’t lifted on schedule but really can’t see us ever going back into lockdowns we’ve previously had
 
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