Coronavirus (2021) thread

[artfuldodger]

Would imagine the final restrictions won’t lifted on schedule but really can’t see us ever going back into lockdowns we’ve previously had

I can see there being some sort of compromise. I can’t see everything back to normal with no restrictions on that date. But there’s a massive difference between 100s of sweaty kids in a mosh pit, and an outdoor event being allowed to operate at full capacity.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Would imagine the final restrictions won’t lifted on schedule but really can’t see us ever going back into lockdowns we’ve previously had

I think a compromise / bit of a delay out of caution will be fine by most people..

I've said all along I really want to be back watching City in a full rocking Etihad (with a vaccine passport if needs be) by the end of August..if that happens I'm not arsed if we have to move the 'full unlocking' a month or two.

 

[BlueAnorak]

How have they got there forecasts and modelling wrong?

They were not based on a VOC (Variant of Concern) escaping- through step 4 of their plan MAY apply to case numbers.
Interestingly the predictions they came out with sort of work for Indian variant cases - though not hospitalisations and deaths.

 

[PragueBlue]

257 cases here yesterday. I know it was a Sunday but the lowest we've had since last Summer and after the high numbers (17,000) of a few weeks ago, it's good to see it so low.

My main fear is that the relaxation of measures (from today) will cause it to spike again. I would have held things back another month and by then we could have at least 50% of the population vaccinated.

 

[shemnel]

The Indian variant has only taken hold in Bolton in the last week or so, if a spike happens it will start soon.

All eyes will be on Bolton for the next 2/3 weeks thats for sure.

i think the cases have been unusual there for about 14/16 days now, so i think hospitalisation should be occurring (if it is going to)

Have we seen any spike in hospitalisation, given that the Indian variant has been about and spreading for a while?

I thought hospital admissions had also plateaued below 100 a day.

the trust by trust data (not NW data) is lagging a little but i'll keep my eye out

 

[grunge]

They were not based on a VOC (Variant of Concern) escaping- through step 4 of their plan applies to case numbers.
Interestingly the predictions they came out with sort of work for Indian variant cases - though not hospitalisations and deaths.

How could Sage over the last year or so modelled for a variant that didn't exist?

 

[Healdplace]

1979 cases and 5 all settings deaths

Was 2357 last Monday.

From 1, 073, 594 pillar 1 & 2 tests

Was just 447K yesterday and 661 K Saturday

 

[Healdplace]

Bolton up to 153 cases - up 8 on yesterday and 64 on last Monday.

Second highest number yet.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Interestingly the predictions they came out with sort of work for Indian variant cases - though not hospitalisations and deaths.

How many hospitalizations and deaths will result is highly uncertain still.

All of this continues to highlight the chasm between expectations of modelling and reality.

There seems to be an (entirely erroneous) that models give a single point prediction of the future, and if that is out, then the model was "wrong".

Actually what is attempted is to give scenarios which cover possible futures to inform what might happen, and how different policy options might affect it.

Eg Indian variant - given the data we have modeling shows it's possible that this could cause a huge spike, do almost nothing or all points in between. So policy makers have to make a choice: do they take the risk, and how much mitigation (surge testing, local vaccination, caution to public etc) do they put in place.

With the original first wave it was much more black and white: either lock down or face 100s of thousands of deaths in short order.

None of this is "right" or "wrong".

 

[roubaixtuesday]

1979 cases and 5 all settings deaths

Was 2357 last Monday.

From 1, 073, 594 pillar 1 & 2 tests

Was just 447K yesterday and 661 K Saturday

Actually, I think this is even better than it appears.

Noting the sequencing data above that showed that ~50% of all UK COVID was India variant as long ago as 9th May, if overall cases are still not rising rapidly, then variant cases are also unlikely to be rising rapidly.

Still seems to me that we don't know enough to be remotely sure of India variant impact. Likelihood of a huge impact I think low; but potential consequences so high that caution is merited.

 

[Healdplace]

North West the highest region by the biggest gap in 2021 now.

Up 51 today to 432.

Greater Manchester is up 37 of those 51 and Bolton only 8 of them.

Manchester up 9 but still 114 behind Bolton!

Everyone else up or down only slightly.

No sign of the High Peak impact on Tameside and Stockport as yet. Both in single figures today. Tameside on just 2!

Trafford though were up in the low 20s and Salford up a bit week to week too.

Bury also well up week to week again and struggling a bit.

Yorkshire FELL for the fourth straight day and is on 239 - a whopping 193 behind the North West.

Very much the NW is now the UK epicentre and further ahead than since last Autumn when much of the NW went into lockdown.

 

[Healdplace]

The good news is I guess that Bolton is not obviously escalating right now.

It did very sharply and is obviously way up but not (yet!) climbing further.

Here are its last four weeks numbers:

25 - 21 - 15 - 14 - 21 - 19 - 26

35 - 26 - 25 - 29 - 32 - 41 - 45

44 - 57 - 61 - 75 - 68 - 91 - 89

116 - 124 - 189 - 135 - 79 - 145 - 153

 

[Toney’s bookie]

Actually, I think this is even better than it appears.

Noting the sequencing data above that showed that ~50% of all UK COVID was India variant as long ago as 9th May, if overall cases are still not rising rapidly, then variant cases are also unlikely to be rising rapidly.

Still seems to me that we don't know enough to be remotely sure of India variant impact. Likelihood of a huge impact I think low; but potential consequences so high that caution is merited.

Doesn’t it also mean that if the Indian variant is becoming dominant and increasing as a % of total cases, but total cases remaining generally flat, that it could simply be that those who have caught the indian variant in all probability would gave caught coronavirus regardless of what ‘brand’ it was. There was a lot of talk of religious festivals + unvaccinated population + younger people mixing possibly leading to local spikes?

We’ve all been expecting upticks in cases for weeks now but they’ve not appeared to any significant levels and the noise has been based on the proportion of the Indian variant, which seems to be simply replacing the local brand…like grey squirrels vs red squirrels.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The good news is I guess that Bolton is not obviously escalating right now.

It did very sharply and is obviously way up but not (yet!) climbing further.

Here are its last four weeks numbers:

25 - 21 - 15 - 14 - 21 - 19 - 26

35 - 26 - 25 - 29 - 32 - 41 - 45

44 - 57 - 61 - 75 - 68 - 91 - 89

116 - 124 - 189 - 135 - 79 - 145 - 153

Visualisation & commentary from maths prof here

Kicker: "we don't have enough data to draw useful conclusions, you can go mad staring at a few points"

 

[twosips]

Absolutely huge news this, particularly for parts of the world without the riches of a country like ours. Genuine game changer.

 

[Healdplace]

In Stockport in May so far just 8 out of 162 cases came from people aged over 60. That is about 5%.

It looks pretty similar everywhere. The N Irish data has been like this for while.

In Bolton it is only slightly up to 6% - at 65 out of 1064.

 

[splinter]

Absolutely huge news this, particularly for parts of the world without the riches of a country like ours. Genuine game changer.

Science scientists we salute you

 

[Marvin]

Doesn’t it also mean that if the Indian variant is becoming dominant and increasing as a % of total cases, but total cases remaining generally flat, that it could simply be that those who have caught the indian variant in all probability would gave caught coronavirus regardless of what ‘brand’ it was. There was a lot of talk of religious festivals + unvaccinated population + younger people mixing possibly leading to local spikes?

We’ve all been expecting upticks in cases for weeks now but they’ve not appeared to any significant levels and the noise has been based on the proportion of the Indian variant, which seems to be simply replacing the local brand…like grey squirrels vs red squirrels.

How does the variant replace another unless it is has an advantage? One explanation could simply be that infected travellers arrive back to densely populated multi-generational households. Since day 1, immigrant populations have borne the brunt of Covid-19 partly because of their housing, see Leicester and Blackburn.

There will probably be more than one effect at play.

 

[03 March 2002]

Absolutely huge news this, particularly for parts of the world without the riches of a country like ours. Genuine game changer.

Took them long enough, called it from the start:

COVID-19 — Coronavirus

Thanks you lovely , same to you x Seems like only yesterday, meeting you at Wembley and then shitting myself for a week after you said you’d gone down with Covid!

forums.bluemoon-mcfc.co.uk

COVID-19 — Coronavirus

Thanks you lovely , same to you x Seems like only yesterday, meeting you at Wembley and then shitting myself for a week after you said you’d gone down with Covid!

forums.bluemoon-mcfc.co.uk

Great news.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

the noise has been based on the proportion of the Indian variant, which seems to be simply replacing the local brand…like grey squirrels vs red squirrels.

Absolutely.

Except, of course, if it's replacing the local brand, it must also be more transmissible than the local brand (otherwise why would it replace it).

The gazillion dollar question is how much more transmissible, and how much is just caused by import of lots of cases from India seeding outbreaks in communities which are vulnerable for the reasons you state.

Nobody knows - though that doesn't seem to stop loudmouths having strong opinions...