Coronavirus (2021) thread

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ancoats said:
when will the government press the panic button again ? lockdown and a 3rd wave

the rise in cases will be covered with the vaccine roll out. the indian covid variant is being blamed on asian communities in the north west and people not listening to the advise of the government ? greater manchester is a closed shop and locals towns every day numbers are up ?

i hope am wrong but the 3rd wave will happen before October and local tiers system will be in place very soon in the north west ? i just hope wrong and we can move on but the signs are look bleak but we live and hope
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Weren’t we going back to ‘triple digit daily deaths’ shortly? Someone else posting that fans probably won’t be back for the Everton game. How many deaths registered today? 3
Bolton cases already starting to drop. Nationally daily cases have been under 3,000 and closer to 2,000 for months. This has hardly changed even with the variant. Hopefully surge testing and vaccine acceleration keeps it well under control.
Seems many of those in hospital with the new variant could have been but hadn’t been vaccinated. Might give the rest a kick up the arse.
This always looking for the gloomiest doomsday scenario isn’t healthy for anyone
 
ancoats said:
when will the government press the panic button again ? lockdown and a 3rd wave

the rise in cases will be covered with the vaccine roll out. the indian covid variant is being blamed on asian communities in the north west and people not listening to the advise of the government ? greater manchester is a closed shop and locals towns every day numbers are up ?

i hope am wrong but the 3rd wave will happen before October and local tiers system will be in place very soon in the north west ? i just hope wrong and we can move on but the signs are look bleak but we live and hope
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If / when serious illness levels i.e. hospital admissions start to rise significantly.
 
Tonster said:
Weren’t we going back to ‘triple digit daily deaths’ shortly? Someone else posting that fans probably won’t be back for the Everton game. How many deaths registered today? 3
Bolton cases already starting to drop. Nationally daily cases have been under 3,000 and closer to 2,000 for months. This has hardly changed even with the variant. Hopefully surge testing and vaccine acceleration keeps it well under control.
Seems many of those in hospital with the new variant could have been but hadn’t been vaccinated. Might give the rest a kick up the arse.
This always looking for the gloomiest doomsday scenario isn’t healthy for anyone
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Agree apart from 1 thing: the new cases are trending higher now and the Indian variant is growing whilst the Kent variant is declining so we have the potential of a flare-up unless we keep right on top of it
 
Greater Manchester Cases


299 cases today - down from 309. Good as NW rose by 1.

Versus 288 last week. Up 21 from NW rise wk to wk of 63 - also a little better than average.



Bolton - DOWN by 45 to 106 and down 47 week to week - best falls in both numbers id optimistic and matching Zoe saying it is not now worst in GM.


Manchester down by 16 to 45. Up 6 wk to wk.

Rochdale up 10 on 27 - which is up 14 week to week. Biggest number here in a while.

Bury up big by 15 on 24. Up 9 wk to wk. Given Zoe's numbers no surprise sadly.

Trafford up 13 to 22 - which is up 1 wk to wk.

Wigan down 2 on 20 - which is up 7 wk to wk.

Salford down 2 to 17 which is same as last week.

Stockport up by 10 on 17 which is up 9 on last week. Not a good day here either.

Oldham up 4 to 14 - which is up 7 wk to wk.


So there is just 1 borough in single figures today:-

Old faithful -

Tameside up by 3 to 7 which is up 5 wk to wk. So even here not that good.
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Bolton 440 / 327 / UP 113 Testing positive 10.1%

Manchester 60 / 46 / UP 14 Testing positive 9.8%

Bury 58 / 42 / UP 16 Testing positive 9.2%

Rochdale 47 / 40 / UP 7 Testing positive 9.8 %

Trafford 46 / 36 / UP 10 Testing positive 7.1 %

Wigan 42 / 36 / UP 6 Testing positive 9.7%

Salford 31 / 29 / UP 2 Testing positive 9.1%

Oldham 31 / 20 / UP 11 Testing positive 9.9%

Tameside 20 / 32 DOWN 12 Testing positive 8.2

Stockport 17 / 33 / DOWN 16 Testing positive 7.2%


Good news first today as Bolton's Pop Score FALLS for first time in a month when it was at 47 on 25 April. That is certainly good news and matches Zoe.

What is less good news is that pretty much everyone else is rising - some like Bury and Manchester quite a bit.

The gap from Bolton to the rest may well start to close fast now. Depends if they fall faster than others rise.

Stockport was up too today like the rest but stays the only place below 20.

Stockport also still catching Trafford day to day on their recent 200 Pop Score lead across the whole pandemiv. Falls again by 3 to 114 today.

ANOTHER CAVEAT - TOMORROW IS 7 DAYS ON FROM THE BIG MINUS NUMBERS AND ALL POP SCORES WILL TAKE A HIT TOMORROW REGARDLESS OF HOW WELL THINGS GO. BECAUSE THE MINUS NUMBERS ARTIFICIALLY LOWERED THE POP SCORES LAST TUESDAY AND THAT GAP WILL BE MADE UP AND ADDED TO EVERYONE ON THE DAY TOMORROW.
 
Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-


Bolton DROPS - for first time in a month - and now below 1300 weekly cases - Most other places up and Manchester over 300 again but the gap falling is encouraging BUT only if the Bolton fall outstrips the rise anywhere else.

Tameside and Stockport still the lowest with Tameside just ahead. But the rest up somewhat again with only 4 of the ten boroighs now sub 100 per week. Bury joined Wigan and Trafford back over 100. Rochdale joined them too.

Tameside 45, Stockport 49, Oldham 72, Salford 81, Rochdale 103, Trafford 110. Bury 111, Wigan 139, Manchester 334, Bolton 1264.

ALL THESE NUMBERS WILL RISE TOMORROW WITH THE REMOVAL OF LAST WEEKS MINUS SCORES FROM THE 7 DAY TOTAL
 
HOSPITAL DATA



Summary:

Patients are up across the weekend in England and Scotland quite big (over 40) BUT the other nations were down slightly so on both measures together the rise was 31- after a fall of 20 last week in same period. Small numbers but now going the wrong way clearly.

Though ventilators were down in all the nations so fell by 4 over the weekend.

Indeed BOTH Wales and Northern Ireland now have just 1 patient each on a ventilator. Worth recording that good news.

NW patients rose by the most over the weekend (21) and is up week to week on both patients and ventilators to the largest degree on both. So NW is in hospital terms refecting its highest case load. But as yet the numbers are not that serious. But they are not good news for sure.

Where we go as the week progresses will tell us a lot.



UK total:




Patients UP 36 to 959 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 38, 289 in 126 days) :- lowest since 13 September

Ventilators DOWN 4 to 120 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3957 in 120 days) : lowest since 15 September


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

75 Covid admissions following 85, 98, 93, 90, 74, 59, 70 in the week before.

Covid admission numbers in England still under 100. Just a couple of days back. But there are signs of a move upward wk to wk.




PATIENTS:-

Patients UP 31 to 797 v 798 last week :- lowest since 14 September But lowest wk to wk fall since January

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 33, 539 in 126 days)

Ventilators: DOWN 4 to 113 v 117 last week :- lowest since 17 September. But almost flat now.

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3623 in 120 days)



Regions:


Patient // Ventilators // change in past day to today and v last week


East UP 3 to 43 v 56 // UP 2 at 5 v 4

London Down 6 to 244 v 259 // Down 2 to 47 v 50

Midlands UP 10 to 154 v 144 // UP 1 to 15 v 16

NE & Yorks UP 1 to 108 v 110 // Down 2 to 17 v 19

North West UP 21 to 174 v 152// Stays at 20 v 18

South East UP 6 to 56 v 62 // Stays at 6 v 7

South West Stays at 18 v 15// UP 1 to 3 v 3
 
ancoats said:
when will the government press the panic button again ? lockdown and a 3rd wave

the rise in cases will be covered with the vaccine roll out. the indian covid variant is being blamed on asian communities in the north west and people not listening to the advise of the government ? greater manchester is a closed shop and locals towns every day numbers are up ?

i hope am wrong but the 3rd wave will happen before October and local tiers system will be in place very soon in the north west ? i just hope wrong and we can move on but the signs are look bleak but we live and hope
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The only bleak thing here is you. And your grammar.
 
On the new guidance...

...journeys to and from the affected areas – Bedford, Blackburn and Darwen, Bolton, Burnley, Kirklees, Leicester, Hounslow, and North Tyneside – should be avoided “unless essential”...

...The update did not seem to have been accompanied by an official announcement and it is also understood that local leaders and public health directors were unaware of it.

Figures in Bolton council were not informed of the developments, the Guardian understands.

Extraordinary stuff.

www.theguardian.com

Ministers urged to clarify travel advice for England’s Covid hotspots

Guidance about Bolton and seven other areas apparently put online without announcement
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
Nothing to report globally other than good falls in India. Afghanistan is rising but I am not sure how reliable their data is. They don't border India directly so I have difficulty accepting that it could surge in Afghanistan without it surging in Pakistan. Pakistan is showing modest increases at the moment. Nepal and Bangladesh flat. Weird that the Indian variant is making an impact in the UK but has yet to make its presence felt in countries bordering India, however if you looked at the UK's national infection figures you would get a false picture. Our figures are flat or gently rising but we are told that there is a rotation going on from UK variant to Indian variant. You'd still expect countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh to be seeded before the UK and to be seeded to a greater extent and yet there is still nothing remarkable.
 
johnnytapia said:
The only bleak thing here is you. And your grammar.
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What's bleak is dismissing someone because of their grammar. Grammar helps people communicate but what is more important are their thoughts. Perhaps it was a quick throw-away comment but the person on the other end might read that and be hurt by it, and they might not want to comment next time for fear that it would be grammar-checked.
 
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Psychedelic Casual said:
My mate and his missus both have Covid and they both had their first jab last month. He said they both feel like shit, as if they have a very heavy cold but not too bad.

Hopefully the first dose they received stops then getting really ill.
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Good to hear..I'll be glad when I get my second jab, promising to hear that just one jab is stopping them getting really ill
 
does anyone feel like there is very little measured reporting anymore?

all i hear is how healthcare systems will collapse and we're fucked, but in fact i am yet to see one do just that, even in India. Or are we being lied to? or are they lying to themselves? all i see is "it's fine" or "it's fucked". The best sources seem to be only twitter based, or the odd blog, and that is riddled with idiots.

this is clearly a highly nuanced and uncertain situation.
 
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shemnel said:
does anyone feel like there is very little measured reporting anymore?

all i hear is how healthcare systems will collapse and we're fucked, but in fact i am yet to see one do just that, even in India. Or are we being lied to? or are they lying to themselves? all i see is "it's fine" or "it's fucked". The best sources seem to be only twitter based, or the odd blog, and that is riddled with idiots.
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I know what you mean. This is exactly how I feel. Right now it’s either another lockdown in GM is imminent, or it’s we’re all fine and June 21 is happening as planned.

I don’t know what to think anymore - and even on this thread the excellently researched and presented numbers from Healdplace even seem to contradict themselves and confuse me.

And I class myself as a fairly intelligent person on the whole.
 
There's something not right when people who are double-vaccinated are being told not to go to A or leave B.

You can go to a pub and breathe over everybody but you can't go to Bolton, Bury or Bedford?

Gradual easing up on restrictions is the right policy, but they should have waited on a lot of fronts until everybody has been offered a first jab. Maybe it's the lack of measured reporting mentioned above, but you get the feeling that restrictions are coming in some aspects of life, yet others are allowed to carry on and there doesn't seem to be a consistent approach across the board.

You want to go inside with hundreds of other people? No problem, carry on.
You want to go outside somewhere, no you can't do that because we think you might be in danger.
 
johnnymarrsbarres said:
I know what you mean. This is exactly how I feel. Right now it’s either another lockdown in GM is imminent, or it’s we’re all fine and June 21 is happening as planned.

I don’t know what to think anymore - and even on this thread the excellently researched and presented numbers from Healdplace even seem to contradict themselves and confuse me.

And I class myself as a fairly intelligent person on the whole.
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I stopped listening to and reading the News months ago. Got absolutely sick to death of their bollocks.

Now, I just read the data and comments on here from the likes of Healdplace and roubix, and just check the Gov website every now and again (I actually signed up to have weekly Gov Covid update emails sent to my work email address).

Our News is a joke, needs a proper freshening up and revamp.
 
RobMCFC said:
There's something not right when people who are double-vaccinated are being told not to go to A or leave B.

You can go to a pub and breathe over everybody but you can't go to Bolton, Bury or Bedford?

Gradual easing up on restrictions is the right policy, but they should have waited on a lot of fronts until everybody has been offered a first jab. Maybe it's the lack of measured reporting mentioned above, but you get the feeling that restrictions are coming in some aspects of life, yet others are allowed to carry on and there doesn't seem to be a consistent approach across the board.

You want to go inside with hundreds of other people? No problem, carry on.
You want to go outside somewhere, no you can't do that because we think you might be in danger.
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It will always carry on in some form, I've come to the conclusion that we won't get our old lives back. This is the new norm, some of these scientists, SAGE and some goverment ministers are seeing this as their moment in the spotlight and don't want to relinquish it. They are enjoying the power trip and ordering people what to do.
June 21st freedom, forget it. I fully expect a north west lockdown of some sort by the Autumn.
 
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