Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Manc Born & Bred]

4330 cases 12 all settings deaths - up 1165 in day.

653, 488 pillar 1 & 2 tests

Up 68,000 on yesterday when there were cases 3165 cases

But 74,000 down on last week when there were 3180 cases

Today is the highest case number since April Fool's Day.

Do we know the age of people being infected and how many have been double jabbed. This isn't looking good for June 21 and unlocking the country. Where are people being infected is also something I would like to know, is it the work place, shopping, mass gathering such as when Rangers fans decided to wreak havoc or all the various protests? Are people not bothering to self isolate any longer...

 

[Healdplace]

As for Greater Manchester.

Bolton numbers were OK in the context despite being up.

Manchester. Salford and Stockport less so as these are well up again.

Manchester beat Bolton again today.

Partly expected as they are the biggest boroughs so more cases always would occur here.

Total cases in GM were 647 - that is up 228 on yesterday

So 228 of the NW daily rise of 378 - which is a bit above average expectations.

That 647 is up on 395 last Wednesday - so by 252 out the regional rise of 413 week to week.

Again this is above expectations based on past percentage of cases in GM versus the NW.

But when I tell you that only Tameside on 18 has stayed low consistently (which is why Zoe which has it as the most infected place in the entire UK and has for days) has stopped claiming that fact!

Every other GM borough was 33 and rising from there. Nobody had a good day. With the exception of Tameside if you ignore Zoe!

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Do we know the age of people being infected and how many have been double jabbed. This isn't looking good for June 21 and unlocking the country. Where are people being infected is also something I would like to know, is it the work place, shopping, mass gathering such as when Rangers fans decided to wreak havoc or all the various protests? Are people not bothering to self isolate any longer...

Very unlikely to be protests, beaches, football matches or shopping. Workplaces and houses are the most likely scenarios, for the age groups being infected, with the poorest members of society still the most likely to catch it.
When it was the elderly mostly catching it, it was mainly care homes, hospitals and homes, although still disproportionately affecting the poorest.

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

Had some cousins join that stupid fucking Rangers get together the other weekend.

Guess what?

One cousin got it, passed it to her mum and dad, then her best friend, she in turn passed it her husband.

And guess what she said, she only went in a of group of six and didn't really mix.

Fucking thick.

 

[crooky]

Had some cousins join that stupid fucking Rangers get together the other weekend.

Guess what?

One cousin got it, passed it to her mum and dad, then her best friend, she in turn passed it her husband.

And guess what she said, she only went in a of group of six and didn't really mix.

Fucking thick.

That's very unlucky considering the numbers.

Hope everyone affected gets well soon.

 

[Marvin]

Do we know the age of people being infected and how many have been double jabbed. This isn't looking good for June 21 and unlocking the country. Where are people being infected is also something I would like to know, is it the work place, shopping, mass gathering such as when Rangers fans decided to wreak havoc or all the various protests? Are people not bothering to self isolate any longer...

It's almost entirely down to the Indian variant.

The evidence is that the Kent variant is declining in these hotspots and the new variant is increasing. You also seen divergent activity across the UK, i.e. regions where there is little growth in COvid, and regions where there are increases. That suggests that it's not due to national behavioural changes and opening up, but due to biology. Of course if we want to we can shut this down.

News today I liked: Government announced it is in formal talks with Astrazeneca for a variant vaccine. How long that takes I don't know. Globally the situation is not so bad because there are a lot of vaccines that work well against the variants. Those that target the spike protein are obviously affected by mutations to it, those that target the whole virus less so. The spike protein is mutating because this is a zoonotic virus and the spike is not well adapted to the human host, but is becoming better adapted. That's a theory anyway. I like it.

 

[Healdplace]

Do we know the age of people being infected and how many have been double jabbed. This isn't looking good for June 21 and unlocking the country. Where are people being infected is also something I would like to know, is it the work place, shopping, mass gathering such as when Rangers fans decided to wreak havoc or all the various protests? Are people not bothering to self isolate any longer...

If you look in here last night you will find several posts where I link to the heat maps that show across places like Manchester the age range and numbers testing positive across the entire pandemic up to latest data,

That will show you some of what you need to know.

I also post every evening the vaccination numbers for the 10 GM boroughs by first and second dose.

Around Page 2506 if you scroll back.

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital data:

98 admissions (these are always two days old I remind) - exactly the same as last week

Admissioms in the NW last week were 31 - yesterday were 25 - today are 19. That looks pretty hopeful.

However, the NW total patients today is UP by 12 to 196. That is now up 30 on last Wednesday. The biggest week to week jump in months. This is the biggest rise in any region today

East stay at 49, London up 5 to 241, Midlands down 1 to 138, NE & Yorkshire up 9 to 101. South East down 2 to 58 and South West up 2 to 18.

So total patients in England with Covid rose by 25 today from 776 to 801 - that is UP 56 week to week. And the highest number since 16 May when it was also 801.


Ventilators in the NW happily fell by 2 today to 35 - though that is up 12 on last Wednesday.

East stays on 8, London on 40, Midlands falls by 3 to 15, Yorkshire up 1 to 13, South East falls by 3 to 4 and Sout West stays at 1.

Total England ventilators tpday down 7 to 116 - up 1 from 115 last Wednesday.

 

[Healdplace]

Other UK Hospital numbers:


N Ireland 17 patients and 0 ventilated beds. (Down 3 and 0 on the day)

Wales 19 patients and 3 ventilated beds (Down 1 and 1 on the day)

Scotland 114 patients and 10 on Ventilated beds (Up 8 and 0 on the day)



So total of 150 patients and 13 ventilated. It was 152 patients and 11 ventilated last week.



Added to the England numbers the UK Covid situation as of today is:-


951 patients - versus 897 last week

And 129 ventilated - versus 126 last week.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

This week's hospital admission figures for comparison from the previous week.

79 admissions in total (+12)

85+: 5 (+5)
75-84: 11 (+9)
65-74: 6 (-1)

45-64: 22 (-2)
25-44: 30 (+2)

Under 25's: 5 (-1).

Notable increase in hospital admissions amongst the elderly age groups.

This week's in comparison to last (Scotland)

119 admissions in total (+40!!)

85+: 10 (+5 on last week)
75-84: 7 (-2 on last week)
65-74: 8 (+2 on last week)

45-64: 26 (+4)
25-44: 48 (+18!!)

Under 25s: 20 (+15!!!)

Also worthy of note that 9 of those under the age of 20 who were admitted to Scottish hospitals with Covid during the last week are aged just 0-4.

 

[Healdplace]

Latest Vaccine Update by Population Percentage for 10 GM boroughs

Borough/ First Dose / Both Doses / TODAY V YESTERDAY



BOLTON 71.2% / 45.3% V 71.0% / 45,0%

BURY 69.7% / 48.2% V 69.6% / 47.3%

MANCHESTER 50.3 / 28.8 % V 50.2% / 28.4%

OLDHAM 65.4 % / 43.0% V 65.1% / 42.6%

ROCHDALE 68.5% / 42.4% V 68.3% / 41.9%

SALFORD 57.2 % / 39.4 % V 57.2% / 39.1%

STOCKPORT 73.3% / 51.9% V 73.2% / 51.5%

TAMESIDE 70.1% / 46.9% V 70% / 46.5%

TRAFFORD 71.8% / 47.7% V 71.8% / 47.2%

WIGAN 72.7% / 50.5% V 72.6% / 50.0%

 

[Healdplace]

Full GM details:

BOROUGH / CASES TODAY / V YESTERDAY / V LAST WEEK

BOLTON 149 / UP 51 / UP 5

BURY 39 / DOWN 3 / UP 16

MANCHESTER 163 / UP 66 / UP 89

OLDHAM 33 / UP 15 / UP 14

ROCHDALE 33 / UP 11 / UP 8

SALFORD 65 / UP 31 / UP 37

STOCKPORT 58 / UP 11 / UP 43

TAMESIDE 18 / UP 3 / UP 7

TRAFFORD 46 / UP 28 / UP 30

WIGAN 43 / UP 15 / UP 3


Manchester ahead of Bolton, Salford and Stockport next highest and big week to week rises again.

Nobody other than Tameside doing well.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Just thinking out loud here (positive thought), might be miles off or numbers might be insignificant but still...

We know that first vaccine doses are having a much lesser effect in reducing transmission/symptoms etc.

But I ask, what about people who have had *prior infection* who are receiving their first dose? I wonder, would that then act in a similar manner to a previously uninfected person getting their 2nd dose?

As the younger age groups are the ones most likely to have been already infected, asymptomatic or otherwise, I wonder if this could help us transmission wise once they start getting their first dose. So in a sense, hope is not all lost for the first doses.

If that makes any sense. As I say, just a thought, with no scientific expertise behind it!

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Tameside 157, Oldham 176, Trafford 217, Rochdale 220, Bury 280, Wigan 288, Stockport 318, Salford 389. Manchester 839, Bolton 1082.


Only Tameside and Oldham left below 200 now when miost were below `100 just ten days ago.

Manchester just 243 behind Bolton now. Stockport ans Salford having the biggest recent rises now leading the pack but everyone is climbing daily. Even Bolton rose slightly today. But still relatively better than the rest which are roping it in ad climbing up towards it faster than it is coning down toward the other 9 boroughs.

We need to see that reverse or we end up with a GM table with everwhere meeting at a pretty high number.

 

[artfuldodger]

Just thinking out loud here (positive thought), might be miles off or numbers might be insignificant but still...

We know that first vaccine doses are having a much lesser effect in reducing transmission/symptoms etc.

But I ask, what about people who have had *prior infection* who are receiving their first dose? I wonder, would that then act in a similar manner to a previously uninfected person getting their 2nd dose?

As the younger age groups are the ones most likely to have been already infected, asymptomatic or otherwise, I wonder if this could help us transmission wise once they start getting their first dose. So in a sense, hope is not all lost for the first doses.

If that makes any sense. As I say, just a thought, with no scientific expertise behind it!

We’ll find out when all the students get vaccinated!! It certainly makes sense.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

We’ll find out when all the students get vaccinated!! It certainly makes sense.

Yep the proof will be in the pudding soon enough, here's hoping.

 

[Healdplace]

GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.




Bolton 375 / 420 / DOWN 45 Testing positive 10.6%

Bury 152 / 72 / UP 80 Testing positive 9.3%

Manchester 152 / 76 / UP 76 Testing positive 9.9%

Salford 151 / 50 / UP 101 Testing positive 9.3%

Stockport 108 / 28 / UP 80 Testing positive 7.4%

Rochdale 99 / 62 / UP 37 Testing positive 9.9 %

Trafford 92 / 49 / UP 43 Testing positive 7.2

Wigan 89 / 60/ UP 29 Testing positive 9.1%

Oldham 74 / 49 / UP 25 Testing positive 10.0%

Tameside 69 / 25 / UP 44 Testing positive 8.3



Bolton stayed on the same Pop score as several other boroughs rose up toward it. The gap is narrowing and more and more places challenging to catch Bolton.

I was criticised on here last night for saying Stockport was in a bit of trouble but you do not get a weekly Pop rise of 80 without that being true. Only Salford is worse and a rise of 101 is concerning.

Pop score remember evens out POPulation size so this is not just because more people live there. But I imagine it is because more younger people (the ones catching it) may do.

In any case nobody is doing well though relatively speaking Tameside and Oldham are and Wigan has stabilised a little in past few days as its vaccination numbers have risen too.

These POP numbers are the ones that really tell you where we are headed and right now the only way is up.

But that was true of Bolton two or three weeks ago and whilst the fall has slowed to a crawl it is certainly not rising. Indeed the ONLY GM borough falling.

So there is hope and expectation the rest of GM can follow that path and turm around their numbers too.

 

[BlueAnorak]

These Scotland rises in patients and icu are the thing to watch as they are going up. But not YET at precipitous levels as we saw in January when cases rose. Though they were about 12 times more cases than now so hardly a surprise.

As the two most impacted areas - Scotland and North West - are BOTH rising in patients thee are the numbers we need to watch.

NW - though - so far just up 10 from 174 to 184 in the week - a number which has not impacted the UK much as other regions are still falling (as they do not have this variant much as yet) so that in effect counteracts any rise elsewhere where they do.

Deaths are always going to be the last thing to show. But Scotland with a 67% rise in ventilator icu week to week and North West in that week gone from 22 to 37 - by far the biggest recent jump in England - IS for me the one really concerning stat right now.

That is a very similar % jump in a week to Scotland.

If that goes on and - more worryingly - if - because we are already pretty open let alone the plans for 3 weeks time - this spreads across all UK regions not yet awash with the variant and happens there too - then multiplied by all those numbers we will see a rise in hospital figure that cannot be just nodded away because we are all fed up with lockdown.

We do not yet know what will happen to these rises. Bolton is showing hope that a plateau was reached quickly and is already falling. If that tranalates into better NW hospital data then there is good news. But we are likely not to know that for a week or two. Or see if the hospital data drives deaths up significxantly as it hopefully never will because of lower age groups catcjing it and the older vulnerable ones double jabbed.

The decision in front of us is critical and I just do not think right now it can be called either way. We cannot rush this. But we should take no chances like Pep changing a winning team as the best tactic at a cricual moment.

Prudence here might be the best tactic until we know where we stand.

Kind of depends on how many were vaccinated or double vaccinated.
Sorry to say but those who were in a vulnerable group and didn't get vaccinated when they could shouldn't delay opening up. They need to get vaccinated and isolate.
The economy can't be sacrificed for idiots

 

[unicorn]

Just thinking out loud here (positive thought), might be miles off or numbers might be insignificant but still...

We know that first vaccine doses are having a much lesser effect in reducing transmission/symptoms etc.

But I ask, what about people who have had *prior infection* who are receiving their first dose? I wonder, would that then act in a similar manner to a previously uninfected person getting their 2nd dose?

As the younger age groups are the ones most likely to have been already infected, asymptomatic or otherwise, I wonder if this could help us transmission wise once they start getting their first dose. So in a sense, hope is not all lost for the first doses.

If that makes any sense. As I say, just a thought, with no scientific expertise behind it!

That makes a lot of sense.

Earlier this year we were hearing estimates that (as I recall) around 20% of people may have had the virus in different levels, obviously far higher than the c.7% (4.4m) who've actually tested positive.

I'd assume a significant number of those 20% were younger age groups who, such as all the folk still making train journeys into London in March 2020.

So I guess you'd expect their first vaccine dose to be giving enhanced protection ?

 

[BlueAnorak]

As pointed out by Dr John Campbell for weeks, the Pfizer jab can be a cause of Myocarditis (Heart inflamation.)
A report from Isreal today says 1/20,000 young men get it after vaccination

Pfizer's jab is linked to heart inflammation in Israel, medics say

A study by health officials in Israel found 148 cases of the condition myocarditis, which is swelling in the heart, that they think could be linked to vaccination because they happened soon after.

mol.im

The moral - Nothibg really to worry about, but If you're young man don't exercise for 3 weeks after Pfizer vaccination then build it up slowly and watch out for chest pain or irregular heart rythems as you build it up again or you could have a heart attack
Probably as dangerous as the AZ jab for younger women - so the advice needs to change a bit. Follow the above advice and you'll be fine.