Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BlueHammer85]

By Thomas Moore, science correspondent

There is still no reason to hit the panic button over the Indian, or Delta, variant.

New data from Public Health England showing that people who are confirmed to have the virus are more than twice as likely to need hospital admission is certainly a concern.

But reassuringly the vaccine is holding up really well.

Of 89 people who were admitted to hospital with the variant, 59 - that's two-thirds – had not been vaccinated at all. Just three of the patients had been double vaccinated.

The Delta variant, which is thought to be more infectious than previous strains, is adding to the rise in cases that had been expected as the UK came out of lockdown.

But the rise in hospital admissions has been small in comparison – and there has been no uptick at all in patients needing a ventilator.

 

[Healdplace]

This doctor is excellent and spot on and says what I have been saying in here for months.

Waiting for final data in a pandemic is waiting too long if the early data is persuasive.

But they keep on making the same mistake.

Let us hope they have a plan.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Yeah, my 24/7 role as a career for my 94 year old grandma hasn’t been affected much by Covid. Not going anywhere aside.

We’ve all had both vaccines in our household now, so we are going to see things like our local waterfall now.

Which is fair enough but we all need to have a bit of empathy for people as well. There are people who have lost/will lose their livelihoods, their houses and all manner of things. There are people who have lost people that have died alone and scared this last 15 months and there are kids who will never catch up.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

This doctor is excellent and spot on and says what I have been saying in here for months.

Waiting for final data in a pandemic is waiting too long if the early data is persuasive.

But they keep on making the same mistake.

Let us hope they have a plan.

Can’t see it!!

 

[Healdplace]

Can’t see it!!

Likely one of Blackadder's will be getting reviewed as we speak.

 

[Healdplace]

As has been suggested by posters in here this is being driven by schoolkids apparently. Passing it on to each other then family.

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

Covid-19: More than half of UK adults have had second jab

The prime minister welcomes the "amazing achievement" and urges the public to "finish the job".

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Healdplace]

I hope and expect the truth will be somewhere in the middle between complete disaster and not a problem.

But I think we can say with assurance that there is more chance of further lockdown tha fully opening in 2 or 3 weeks.

We just need to stay strong as in the end herd immunity via everyone catching it OR being vaccinated was always the end game.

If we get there faster without too much damage to hospitals and patients it might prove less of a negative than it seems.

Though that is the optimistic perspective here.

Still a bit early to call.

 

[crazyg]

Likely one of Blackadder's will be getting reviewed as we speak.

More likely one of Baldrick's.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Her quotes should be put on the political page as looking at her Twitter wall, even her none covid posts are mostly targeted against the government.

If qualified scientists have been ringing alarm bells for weeks but being ignored by the government, its probably about right that they'd be pretty upset by the government, no?

They have fucked up, again. And it's evidently going to cost us, again. That doesn't need posted on the political page, it's just a factual demonstration of exactly what's happened.

 

[shemnel]

There still seems to be a real black hole of knowledge around the amount of people catching covid twice, I haven't seen much advance beyond the study of about 5k health workers that came out some months ago.

Even simple things such as how many are getting it twice, then more complex stuff such as are variants increasing the chance of getting it twice and so on

 

[Healdplace]

I am sure you will not be shocked to hear that both the NW and GM had real big numbers today.

First the good news. Bolton was way behind the worst today. A huge week to week fall.

Manchester into the stratosphere over 200.

And BOTH Stockport anf Salford huge jumps up (I was not exaggerating saying Stockport was having real problems a few days back just reporting the facts I could see)

They were BOTH on 105 cases - just 12 less than Bolton.

Stockport and Salford have tripled in abot 3 days. And Stockport is up week to week about what Bolton has fallen in that same week.

Wigan only just failed to make it 5 GM boroughs in three figures - more than doubling on yesyerday and trbling on two days ago to 92.

Total GM cases 878 - the highest in 2021. Up 231 on yesterday and 274 on last week.

NW total was a huge 1643 - also a record for many months.

That is up 485 on yesterday so the GM rise is actually a little below average.

And week to week NW up 618 - so again GM rise under half that.

The numbers are likely throigh the roof in East Lancashire and Preston and I dont have the nerve to start tracking them again as I never expected to have to and it is very depressing even considering this.


The one shaft of light is that Bolton's fall is slow but clearly real and if they can turn it round the others can.

Assuming those in charge in all the places in GM in trouble right now are actually aware of this and not in denial and doing what Bolton did to turn it round.

Trouble is these cases are coming from the unvaccinated - as in often children. Who are not going to be protected by vaccines any time soon. So this may have to burn out throiugh the community.

That will be weeks not days I fear and the opening up later this month - in the NW anyhow - is toast.

Oldham though bucked the trend entirely and was DOWN to just 29 - though that is up 19 week to week. So some good news thojugh 2 weeks ago a low of 29 would hae not been seen as such. As we were getting 9s instead daily from multiple places.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Useful info - in England, there are 779 COVID patients in hospital, down from 801 yesterday. There’s been 49 new admissions of patients with Covid in the past 24 hours but 110 were discharged.
In Bolton, the number of hospital patients has dropped to 39, down from 49 a week ago.

 

[shemnel]

The Bolton situation offers some encouragement? It seems have burned fast and bright with no huge health burden.

If that flashy up down of cases is to be seen around the country from here on, we might expect a really sharp peak of cases over the next few weeks and quite quick decline again. Might hit 10k a day next week, 20k a day the week after. Just guessing.

Cases are going to go up. It's a given now. There are surging areas all over the place so it's out there doing its thing. As long as the health burden is much reduced, people need to stay calm as it's going to appear quite bad in a week or two. 21st June is gone, surely, but a few more weeks with more jabs will be more positive

 

[Healdplace]

Useful info - in England, there are 779 COVID patients in hospital, down from 801 yesterday. There’s been 49 new admissions of patients with Covid in the past 24 hours but 110 were discharged.
In Bolton, the number of hospital patients has dropped to 39, down from 49 a week ago.

See earlier where that data is discussed in more detail and is not as simple as it seems.

 

[Healdplace]

Shemnel - yes that is pretty much as I see it too.

The only possible problem is if this proves to be more dangerous even to the vaccinated as some of thos reports today hint but we likely will not know for a few weeks.

This only really took off 2/3 weeks ago so any real uptick in hospital data and death especially might be yet to come. That is my only caveat. Too early to be sure it will be minimal. But it may be and that is the best case scenario as there is no stopping this now.

If it takes the same time a Bolton to get out of this GM should be coming out of it by end of June/early July but by then others will be following in other regions.

They won't obviously but Wales and N Ireland really should stop travel to a from England and Scotland for a few weeks. It would be a shame if their success is compromised.

 

[117 M34]

I am sure you will not be shocked to hear that both the NW and GM had real big numbers today.

First the good news. Bolton was way behind the worst today. A huge week to week fall.

Manchester into the stratosphere over 200.

And BOTH Stockport anf Salford huge jumps up (I was not exaggerating saying Stockport was having real problems a few days back just reporting the facts I could see)

They were BOTH on 105 cases - just 12 less than Bolton.

Stockport and Salford have tripled in abot 3 days. And Stockport is up week to week about what Bolton has fallen in that same week.

Wigan only just failed to make it 5 GM boroughs in three figures - more than doubling on yesyerday and trbling on two days ago to 92.

Total GM cases 878 - the highest in 2021. Up 231 on yesterday and 274 on last week.

NW total was a huge 1643 - also a record for many months.

That is up 485 on yesterday so the GM rise is actually a little below average.

And week to week NW up 618 - so again GM rise under half that.

The numbers are likely throigh the roof in East Lancashire and Preston and I dont have the nerve to start tracking them again as I never expected to have to and it is very depressing even considering this.


The one shaft of light is that Bolton's fall is slow but clearly real and if they can turn it round the others can.

Assuming those in charge in all the places in GM in trouble right now are actually aware of this and not in denial and doing what Bolton did to turn it round.

Trouble is these cases are coming from the unvaccinated - as in often children. Who are not going to be protected by vaccines any time soon. So this may have to burn out throiugh the community.

That will be weeks not days I fear and the opening up later this month - in the NW anyhow - is toast.

Oldham though bucked the trend entirely and was DOWN to just 29 - though that is up 19 week to week. So some good news thojugh 2 weeks ago a low of 29 would hae not been seen as such. As we were getting 9s instead daily from multiple places.

I remember not very long ago I asked you when we would have the first day of zero cases for one of the GM areas and common concensus was any day now.
Seems mad looking at them numbers now.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Interestingly, just 61.7% of deaths “involving” COVID-19 had this recorded as the underlying cause, i.e. the death was determined to be “due” to COVID. That’s a significant reduction from January, when the figure was more than 90%. The previous low, last summer, was 71%.

 

[Healdplace]

I remember not very long ago I asked you when we would have the first day of zero cases for one of the GM areas and common concensus was any day now.
Seems mad looking at them numbers now.

We got down to 1 think once. That was only a month ago. The problem wa s once it got to East Lancashire and Bolton it is so fast spreading and in the unvaccinated younger people mostly that having opemed up already it had a perfect run at communities and we were as usual far too slow to respond.

Or maybe the plan was to get it over with asap as it was by then unstoppable and 6 weeks of fast rising cases that burn out might be preferable to all the way to autumn in bits and pieces when we will be waiting for the bad weather to create the next wave from the next variant.

We missed the chance to mitigate this though we likely could never have stopped it. Perhaps letting it act like a wildfire and run out offuel will turn out to be the right strategy. A broken clock is right every 12 hours so the odds must be we are due a win by happenstance of planning.

 

[Keith Moncrieff]

Our green bin wasn’t emptied due to Covid, shits got real!!