Coronavirus (2021) thread

[shemnel]

Shemnel - yes that is pretty much as I see it too.

The only possible problem is if this proves to be more dangerous even to the vaccinated as some of thos reports today hint but we likely will not know for a few weeks.

This only really took off 2/3 weeks ago so any real uptick in hospital data and death especially might be yet to come. That is my only caveat. Too early to be sure it will be minimal. But it may be and that is the best case scenario as there is no stopping this now.

If it takes the same time a Bolton to get out of this GM should be coming out of it by end of June/early July but by then others will be following in other regions.

They won't obviously but Wales and N Ireland really should stop travel to a from England and Scotland for a few weeks. It would be a shame if their success is compromised.

Hmmm, I sincerely hope these claims of increased risk of hospital admission by 2.6 fold are early wayward guesses, that's quite high. Yes you're right the hospital rates will only start to tell in the coming fortnight, it's simply not enough to go on Bolton, Blackburn and Erewash. Grumble, this shit is getting really annoying.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Some positive news on the likely benefits of vaccination from PHE.

The SIREN study is a cohort of National Health Service healthcare workers, including 135 sites and 44,549 participants across the UK, 35,717 in England, who are tested every 2 weeks for COVID-19 by PCR, and who have monthly serological testing. This cohort had a high seropositivity on recruitment (30% before the second wave) and is now vaccinated (95%). The incidence of new infections and potential reinfections in SIREN is monitored and would be expected to rise if a new variant became highly prevalent and was able to escape either natural or vaccine-derived immunity. During the period of time that Delta became prevalent, there has been no increase in PCR-positive participants in the SIREN cohort overall (Figure 8) and reinfections remain at very low numbers in individuals previously either PCR positive or seropositive.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

835 new cases in Scotland today, the most since February.

Sadly Glasgow City well back up but even more so the case in Edinburgh City now which has really accelerated the high numbers over the past few days.

14 of the cases are in over 65s
146 in 45-64's

263 in 25-44's
386 in 0-24's (154 of those are in 0-14's)

***************

4 deaths

2 aged 85+
2 aged 75-84

****************

19.5k first doses
31k second doses

Get.your.vaccine.

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital data:

115 admissions (these are always two days old I remind) - was 88 last week

Admissions in the NW last week were 24 - yesterday were 19 - today are 31.

However, the NW total patients today is DOWN by 4 to 192. That is now up just 19 on last Thursday.

East stay at 49, London down 3 to 238, Midlands down 13 to 125, NE & Yorkshire down 5 to 96. South East UP 5 to 63 and South West down 2 to 16.

So total patients in England with Covid fell by 22 today from 801 to 779 - that is UP 37 week to week.


Ventilators in the NW stayed at 35 - though that is up 14 on last Thursday.

East up by 2 to 10, London up 1 to 41, Midlands up 1 to 16, Yorkshire up 2 to 15, South East up 2 to 6 and South West stays at 1.

Total England ventilators today UP 8 to 124 - up 14 from 110 last Thursday.

OTHER NATIONS


Wales up 3 patients to 22 Ventilators stay at 3

N Ireland stays at 17 patients Ventilators stay at 0

Scotland down 4 patients to 110 ventilators down 2 to 8.


So UK patients = 928 - down 23 on yesterday.

And UK ventilators = 135 up 6 on yesterday

 

[ayrshire_blue]

whatever. Everyone at risk has been offered a vaccine.

No, they really haven't.

. Covid is not the only issue in the world.

No, but it's the single biggest problem in the world today (at least in the short term, Global warming might argue differently on a long term basis), and it's preventing many of the other problems from getting dealt with. That will continue to be the case until Covid is under control.

You keep sipping the government cool aid

You've not been following my posts much, have you?

 

[Healdplace]

Latest Vaccine Update by Population Percentage for 10 GM boroughs

Borough/ First Dose / Both Doses / TODAY V YESTERDAY



BOLTON 71.4% / 45.8% V 71.2% / 45.3%

BURY 69.9% / 49.0% V 69.7% / 48.2%

MANCHESTER 50.7 / 29.2 % V 50.3% / 28.8%

OLDHAM 65.7 % / 43.9% V 65.4% / 43.0%

ROCHDALE 68.7% / 43.3% V 68.7% / 42.4%

SALFORD 57.6 % / 39.6 % V 57.2% / 39.4%

STOCKPORT 73.4% / 52.1% V 73.3% / 51.9%

TAMESIDE 70.2% / 47.2% V 70.1% / 46.9%

TRAFFORD 71.9% / 48.1% V 71.8% / 47.7%

WIGAN 72.9% / 50.8% V 72.7% / 50.5%

 

[Healdplace]

Full GM details:

BOROUGH / CASES TODAY / V YESTERDAY / V LAST WEEK

BOLTON 117 / DOWN 32 /DOWN 86

BURY 55/ UP 16/ UP 22

MANCHESTER 220 / UP 57 / UP 116

OLDHAM 29 / DOWN 4/ DOWN 2

ROCHDALE 58/ UP 25 / UP 15

SALFORD 105 / UP 40 / UP 45

STOCKPORT 105 / UP 47 / UP 65

TAMESIDE 34 / UP 16 / UP 14

TRAFFORD 63 / UP 17 / UP 37

WIGAN 92 / UP 49 / UP 48


Manchester ahead of Bolton now by over 100 , Salford and Stockport more big week to week rises again taking both over 100 for first time in many weeks.


Wigan up big too and only Oldham had a decent day and like Bolton fell on both measures day to day and week to week. 29 is the highest 'low' score in GM for 4 months.

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Tameside 171, Oldham 174, Rochdale 245, Trafford 254, Bury 302, Wigan 336, Stockport 383, Salford 434. Manchester 955, Bolton 996.



Bolton drops below 1000 for first time in nearly 2 weeks. Manchester that it was 2 weeks ago six times more than has now almost caught Bolton. But doing so at a far too high number. I said days ago here we needed them to cross paths at a modest number. Just under 1000 is not that sadly.


Only Tameside and Oldham left below 200 but at present rates not for long.

Stockport and Salford accelerating upwards at a worrying rate now and leading the chasing pack. Two weeks ago Bolton had almost 30 times the number of cases as Stockport. Now it has less than 3 times such are the ups and downs of these two boroughs goimg in opposite directions.

But everyone is climbing daily. Except Bolton and today Oldham.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Wales. Why are they coping so well when Scotland and England are not? Is this the only logical answer or are there other factors at play?

 

[unicorn]

Judging by the closure of a substantial number of music venues... Less popular than they had been.

Disagree. Live music, particularly in the smaller sub-500 venues (e.g. Gorilla, Gullivers, Band on the Run), busier than I can remember despite new venues popping up all the time. I do at least a gig a week, many of which were sell-outs.

 

[unicorn]

think everyone needs to calm down and take a breather

just think, if we are in a sort of lockdown for 20+ years and our lives destroyed... i'll still be bringing you album reviews to enjoy :)

That's what really terrifies us, mate !

 

[Healdplace]

GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.




Bolton 346 / 392 / DOWN 46 Testing positive 10.6%

Manchester 174 / 79 / UP 95 Testing positive 10.0%

Salford 167 / 69 / UP 98 Testing positive 9.3%

Bury 158 / 80 / UP 78 Testing positive 9.4%

Stockport 130 / 40 / UP 90 Testing positive 7.4%

Rochdale 108 / 74 / UP 34 Testing positive 9.9 %

Trafford 107 / 53 / UP 54 Testing positive 7.3

Wigan 102 / 67 / UP 35 Testing positive 9.1%

Tameside 75 / 29 / UP 46 Testing positive 8.3

Oldham 73 / 56 / UP 17 Testing positive 10.0%


Bolton down quite a bit as several other boroughs rose up toward it. The gap to Manchester is narriwing daily,

Stockport had the worst day jumping a lot with them and Salford and Mancheser up over 90 week to week - which is unusual for one borough let alome three at once.

Now only two boroughs below 100 - with Oldham's best in GM performance giving it an unlikely lead.

These POP numbers are the ones that really tell you where we are headed and right now the only way is up by a lot.

But that was true of Bolton two or three weeks ago and it is now certainly heading the other way. Indeed the ONLY GM borough falling.

So there is hope and expectation the rest of GM can follow that path and turn around their numbers too. Let us just hope things do not get up too high before they do.

 

[johnnytapia]

they won’t do that though.

even if he does release us on 21 from restrictions I am sure it will come with strong recommendations for safety.

so advisable but not mandatory to wear masks especially if vulnerable or not vaccinated.

so for example if the tram is full I would wear one but if relatively quiet I would not.

there will be basic advice and recommendations and people will have to behave and take responsibility for themselves but nobs will be nobs.

Which is why we have laws.

 

[johnnytapia]

Because these things are 'no biggie' to you mate does not for one second mean that they are no biggie to everyone. You need to widen your scope of view and understand not everyone has an identical life to you.

My best mate was due to get married last summer, which of course got postponed to this summer. It's now cancelled until further notice. That's a pretty fucking big deal to me pal.

A wedding postponed is not, by any metric, a “big deal”. Death. Big deal. Birth. Big deal. Wedding. Not big deal.

 

[johnnytapia]

According to the Telegraph all fans who went to Portugal are being told to self isolate as several flights organised by the clubs have had cases on them on return after the testing they all had to do.

Link?

 

[ayrshire_blue]

New report showing loss of antibodies particularly in elderly/vulnerable from 2 doses of Pfizer vaccine against Delta variant after 3 months of second dose. Still offers good protection but boosters more likely needed than not for this variant now.

(Report doesn't take into account T cells etc, and hopefully still extremely good efficacy against severe disease etc)

 

[splinter]

New report showing loss of antibodies particularly in elderly/vulnerable from 2 doses of Pfizer vaccine against Delta variant after 3 months of second dose. Still offers good protection but boosters more likely needed than not for this variant now.

(Report doesn't take into account T cells etc, and hopefully still extremely good efficacy against severe disease etc)

And the good news just keeps on coming..think I'll take myself off to wetherspoons earlier today..

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Disagree. Live music, particularly in the smaller sub-500 venues (e.g. Gorilla, Gullivers, Band on the Run), busier than I can remember despite new venues popping up all the time. I do at least a gig a week, many of which were sell-outs.

I went to the Bridgewafter last night to see the Halle orchestra return.
very good night but it was limited audience social distancing and masks throughout. Bizarre as we had been sat in a restaurant eating without a mask before just fine. Still watching was good through the fog of my glasses but couldn’t quite understand the masks whilst sat in your seat.

I know I am a sophisticated ****.

 

[SPIDERBOY]

According to the Telegraph all fans who went to Portugal are being told to self isolate as several flights organised by the clubs have had cases on them on return after the testing they all had to do.

Must be using some sort of passenger list......someone actually knocked on my brother in laws door yesterday,and told them the 5 of them had to self isolate....was Ryanair flights apparently.

Forgot to add,he wasn't on a club organised flight.

 

[ctwrd]

New report showing loss of antibodies particularly in elderly/vulnerable from 2 doses of Pfizer vaccine against Delta variant after 3 months of second dose. Still offers good protection but boosters more likely needed than not for this variant now.

(Report doesn't take into account T cells etc, and hopefully still extremely good efficacy against severe disease etc)

This is not news.
Booster jabs for the vulnerable have been planned for months and nhs is geared up for it.
It does not need to lead to restrictions.