Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Blue and still suffering]

I agree with you a lot of it psychological and the government have a lot to answer for with their 'increase sense of personal fear' policy. It's quite unbelievable in fact.

The other day I was chatting to a lady who wouldn't even get a takeaway never mind visit a pub as she couldn't cope with the idea of someone else preparing food for her. She went round to her sister's the other day and it felt like a huge event to be allowing her own sister to cook for her, which is something they'd done regularly up until last year. She'd been double jabbed etc but like many other she has lost all sense of proportion wrt risk and I actually felt sorry for her. So there are various scales of fear and even you taking trams would probably seem horrendous to others. I'm ready to live as normal now and have been for a while but she was very much the other end of the spectrum and I do wonder how these people will cope when the rest of us decide to get on with life. I think once the government stop it with the psych-ops (if they ever do) then that will help but many people will be scarred for life In terms of confidence to just live.

To a certain extent I know how she feels.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

It's really not. I wish it were.

So you’re saying lockdowns and masking don’t actually work? I knew we were fairly close but didn’t realise we were on exactly the same page.

 

[unicorn]

My niece and new baby travelled from Falmouth to show my mum in Cambridge her first great grandchild last week, which was a great moment.

My mum is worried about the new variant and asked my niece how much Covid there was down in Cornwall.

I looked it up for her.



Depending on your perspective, I guess you could say "everything's fine" or "Oh no, 122% increase, we're doomed". The picture in Cambridge is virtually the same, and we've had no deaths here in Sheffield all week.

There seems to be so little middle ground in our media these days.

 

[BlueAnorak]

If the number of deaths don't go up (they aren't at the moment) and neither do the numbers of ICU admissions and there is not much of a rise in hospitalisations then the link betwern infection and death is pretty much broken.
Its looking good at the moment.
Masks and table service will probably have to remain for a while longer but other than that I think the chance of another lockdown is over - we we be into the yearly jab cycle like flu.

Unless the Vietnamese varriant is even worse of course.

 

[Marvin]

My niece and new baby travelled from Falmouth to show my mum in Cambridge her first great grandchild last week, which was a great moment.

My mum is worried about the new variant and asked my niece how much Covid there was down in Cornwall.

I looked it up for her.

View attachment 18603

Depending on your perspective, I guess you could say "everything's fine" or "Oh no, 122% increase, we're doomed". The picture in Cambridge is virtually the same, and we've had no deaths here in Sheffield all week.

There seems to be so little middle ground in our media these days.

Clusters...

 

[BlueAnorak]

It's really not. I wish it were.

Deaths - no change
Hospitalisations - not much change.
If this continues for two weeks the links from cases to overstretching the NHS and death has been broken by vaccination.

 

[M18CTID]

It's really not. I wish it were.

Don't you think it would be best to wait a couple of weeks or so to see if the rise in infections is mirrored by a rise in serious illness and deaths before coming out with that? You've been a valuable source of information on this thread but then spoil it with strange posts like the above.

 

[howfen blue]

Don't you think it would be best to wait a couple of weeks or so to see if the rise in infections is mirrored by a rise in serious illness and deaths before coming out with that? You've been a valuable source of information on this thread but then spoil it with strange posts like the above.

Is there not a case for using Bolton as the example? I think we was on the verge of a localised lockdown 2 weeks ago due to numbers of cases but from what I can see there hasn't been any issues here?

 

[M18CTID]

Is there not a case for using Bolton as the example? I think we was on the verge of a localised lockdown 2 weeks ago due to numbers of cases but from what I can see there hasn't been any issues here?

Yes, good point. Personally, I trust in the vaccines to do their job and I'm of the opinion that the vast majority of Covid deaths going forward will be those who haven't had the vaccine yet, those who sadly aren't able to have the vaccine for medical reasons, and those dickheads who have refused it because they think Bill Gates wants to kill us all off.

 

[splinter]

So we're looking at 2/3 week delay in opening then..

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Updated projection models on hospitalisations/deaths/waves entailing various factors.

Much depends on whether the Scientists telling us Delta has a nearer 70% transmission advantage over Alpha, or Matt Hancock who tells us it's "only" 40%.

Who to listen to, scientists or Matt Hancock? Hmm...

 

[Marvin]

Updated projection models on hospitalisations/deaths/waves entailing various factors.

Much depends on whether the Scientists telling us Delta has a nearer 70% transmission advantage over Alpha, or Matt Hancock who tells us it's "only" 40%.

Who to listen to, scientists or Matt Hancock? Hmm...

There was a paper that came out last week which said it was 37% more transmissible which I think is where the 40% came from. Scientists will come to differing conclusions and then a consensus is found. That's always the way.

Unfortunately in all this we have SAGE and independent SAGE with political demarcations and that's something to be aware of.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

There was a paper that came out last week which said it was 37% more transmissible which I think is where the 40% came from. Scientists will come to differing conclusions and then a consensus is found. That's always the way.

Unfortunately in all this we have SAGE and independent SAGE with political demarcations and that's something to be aware of.

Do you know per chance which paper has produced that?

All I recall seeing is PHE estimating 60% - 70% and Neil Ferguson similar.

The Hancock quote took me completely by surprise.

As detailed in the thread the next couple of weeks will actually distort things further with the schools being on half term etc so it'll make it all the more difficult to get that important figure which will ultimately decide on where we go from here.

In any case, it's shuddering to see some of the worst case models still showing waves well into spring 2022. Obviously, there are more hopeful projections than that detailed but they are all relevant at this stage.

 

[Marvin]

Do you know per chance which paper has produced that?

All I recall seeing is PHE estimating 60% - 70% and Neil Ferguson similar.

The Hancock quote took me completely by surprise.

As detailed in the thread the next couple of weeks will actually distort things further with the schools being on half term etc so it'll make it all the more difficult to get that important figure which will ultimately decide on where we go from here.

In any case, it's shuddering to see some of the worst case models still showing waves well into spring 2022. Obviously, there are more hopeful projections than that detailed but they are all relevant at this stage.

Genomic reconstruction of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic across England from September 2020 to May 2021​

View ORCID ProfileHarald S. Vöhringer, View ORCID ProfileTheo Sanderson, Matthew Sinnott, Nicola De Maio, Thuy Nguyen, Richard Goater, Frank Schwach, Ian Harrison, Joel Hellewell, Cristina Ariani, Sonia Gonçalves, David Jackson, Ian Johnston, Alexander W. Jung, Callum Saint, John Sillitoe, Maria Suciu, Nick Goldman, The Wellcome Sanger Institute Covid-19 Surveillance Team, The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, Ewan Birney, Sebastian Funk, Erik Volz, Dominic Kwiatkowski, Meera Chand, Inigo Martincorena, Jeffrey C. Barrett, View ORCID ProfileMoritz Gerstung

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.22.21257633v1.full-text

Here is what it says about the latest variant - you can read the full report in the link.

There could well be other research out there making other claims.

Rapid rise of B.1.617.2 in April and early May 2021​

The B.1.617 lineages, first detected in India in 2020, began to appear in English surveillance samples in March 2021. The frequency of the sublineage B.1.617.2 has rapidly increased since, reaching levels of 41% (761/1851) of surveillance sequences on May 15, 2021 (Figure 5a, b). This growth derived from a large influx of cases due to travel from India to England and onward transmission from those cases despite mandatory quarantine (at individuals’ homes prior to April 23, in managed quarantine facilities thereafter) and testing (Public Health England, 2020). B.1.617.2 was subsequently observed in a number of large local clusters, such as in Bolton (Figure 5b) and has been detected in 128/264 informative LTLAs across most of England by May 8 (Supplementary Figure 7a, b).

The most recent data indicate a relative growth rate of B.1.617.2 around 37% (growth per 5.1d, CI 1.26-1.49) in excess of that of B.1.1.7 and unlike all other VOCs/VUIs (Figure 5e, Supplementary Figure 7c). Estimates vary between regions and in hotspots (range 1.07-1.41 for informative regions; Supplementary Figure 7d), yet the cause and duration of this increased growth are unclear. It is likely that at least three factors have contributed: intrinsic differences in the biology of this variant (transmissibility and/or immune escape), the very high rate of introductions in a short time, and epidemiological factors specific to the communities where it spread most quickly. Thus the long-term growth advantage may change as it circulates more broadly in the population.

The rapid rise of B.1.617.2 contrasts to B.1.617.1, which was introduced at a similar time and into a similar demographic background, but which grew more slowly than B.1.1.7 (Figure 5b, e). This is also evident in the phylogeographic analysis (based on data as of May 1): The 80 genomes of B.1.617.1 are estimated to derive from 17 introductions (range: 15-31), which is similar to the patterns observed for B.1.525 and B.1.351 with around 3-4 genomes for every introduction (Figure 5d; Supplementary Figure 8). In contrast, B.1.617.2’s 224 genomes are from fewer, but larger, clades (23 introductions, range 6-40), equating to around 10 genomes for every introduction, indicative of elevated domestic transmission throughout April 2021.

The phylogeny of B.1.617.2, in contrast to other VOCs, consists of several clades, which are likely to have originated in the late summer of 2020 and coexisted since as they are split by long branches (Supplementary Figure 8) (Nextstrain team, 2021). This suggests that the growth rate of B.1.617.2 was lower in the past. Even though B.1.617.2 increased to 40% frequency in English surveillance samples throughout April and May 2021, this has been largely offset by the falling number of B.1.1.7 cases. Lastly, it is worth noting that the B.1.617.2 lineage is E484 wildtype, unlike B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.3 which harbour a E484Q mutation which might be functionally similar to E484K. Further surveillance and research is thus needed to fully understand the mechanisms that drive transmission of B.1.617.2.

While the incidence of most VOCs and VUIs in England has been successfully controlled in the early months of 2021 by a combination of national lockdown, genomic surveillance, quarantine of international travelers, vaccination, surge testing in affected areas and preferential test, trace and isolation of cases, the example of B.1.617.2 demonstrates how rapidly the situation can change. Variants currently circulating at low levels may also grow in the future if a propensity to evade prior immunity increases their fitness relative to other variants. Constant genomic surveillance is essential to identify and respond to rapid changes caused by pre-existing and new variants.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Thanks @Marvin

I guess we wait on another PHE report this Thursday or whenever it may be for further updates.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

So we're looking at 2/3 week delay in opening then..

Absolute joke.
We are being kept in like naughty school children. Tens of millions of people have been jabbed, effectively immune yet this circus carries on unabated.
UK PLC is serving a totalitarian sentence of lockdowns, tier restrictions and never ending house arrest at HM's pleasure.
The vaccines were meant to mean people got there lives back, we are not, maybe we never will. Maybe that's the idea hey?
I hope Matt Hancock gets the sack, the lying horrible twat.
rant over.

 

[RobMCFC]

Absolute joke.
We are being kept in like naughty school children. Tens of millions of people have been jabbed, effectively immune yet this circus carries on unabated.
UK PLC is serving a totalitarian sentence of lockdowns, tier restrictions and never ending house arrest at HM's pleasure.
The vaccines were meant to mean people got there lives back, we are not, maybe we never will. Maybe that's the idea hey?
I hope Matt Hancock gets the sack, the lying horrible twat.
rant over.

Not sure what the issue is. As we have all discussed in the "holidays" thread, that is the main (and for me only) issue people have at the moment. Can't we pretty much do everything else anyway? I won't be going to a pub/cinema/restaurant/theatre for the rest of the year so it doesn't bother me.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

Not sure what the issue is. As we have all discussed in the "holidays" thread, that is the main (and for me only) issue people have at the moment. Can't we pretty much do everything else anyway? I won't be going to a pub/cinema/restaurant/theatre for the rest of the year so it doesn't bother me.

I've been on 2 nights out and I hate all the restrictions to be honest and don't agree with the mask wearing either.
I just feel sorry for the 20s / 30s groups who are having there lives ruined.

 

[splinter]

Absolute joke.
We are being kept in like naughty school children. Tens of millions of people have been jabbed, effectively immune yet this circus carries on unabated.
UK PLC is serving a totalitarian sentence of lockdowns, tier restrictions and never ending house arrest at HM's pleasure.
The vaccines were meant to mean people got there lives back, we are not, maybe we never will. Maybe that's the idea hey?
I hope Matt Hancock gets the sack, the lying horrible twat.
rant over.

I can't disagree with ya..we should easily pass 70 million vaccine doses this week..

 

[wolfie1988]

Absolute joke.
We are being kept in like naughty school children. Tens of millions of people have been jabbed, effectively immune yet this circus carries on unabated.
UK PLC is serving a totalitarian sentence of lockdowns, tier restrictions and never ending house arrest at HM's pleasure.
The vaccines were meant to mean people got there lives back, we are not, maybe we never will. Maybe that's the idea hey?
I hope Matt Hancock gets the sack, the lying horrible twat.
rant over.

"Effectively Immune"

A double jabbed work colleague is currently struck down by Covid and feeling very breathless with bad aches and pains. Been double jabbed for 5 weeks....