They were saying something like 11 unbeaten including beating the Netherlands, however they failed to beat Latvia and Guinea in the more recent games so I suppose that wasn't on the piece of paper they gave him.Shearer had them as his ‘dark horse’ for the tournament.
Wales were already through 99%. No team have ever has a win and a draw (3 or 4 points) and gone out of the 24 team to 16 group stages as 3rd place - but they have coming 4th in a group with 4 points.
The Swiss have 7 results that can go against them to mess things up, 4 have to happen to knock them out, but in a lot of cases a draw only is needed.