Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Yes, the cases - hospitalisations - ventilators - deaths sequence IS the one we have to watch and it really does take weeks to play out. Just by the nature of this disease.

Whilst we all might feel frustrated about government decisions and reversals of plans the truth is they know this and they HAD to watch to see if the pattern changed as the cases from mid May translated into deaths and at what level.

We are at double or treble where we were cases wise so it is not unreasonable to expect 75 deaths in a month or so not 25.

But I think that would actually be factored in as the expectation.

We just have to be sure that as this spreads the translation into both long term care on ventilators and deaths do not change upward in proportion.

As we furiously vaccinate to keep those herd immunity levels rising towards 99% or whatever we can realistically obtain. Which should at least hold it steady.

Then hope that is enough to quell the wave and the resulting deaths at a minimum.

So far we seem on track with expectations and the big bang as other regions add to what is mostly still a NW river flowing into the numbers at present does not change the death rate.

Indeed even hope it goes down as more get vaccinated.

There is still reason to be hopeful we will get out of this fairly well all things considered. But it will be a few weeks before we know for sure.

I know the government are saying this and some on here will never believe them and that may be with justification in some instances.

But here it is a genuine reflection of what is happening and the numbers we need to carefully track over the next month or so. Not a conspiracy.
 
Away a little monday-friday break in Argyll and Bute area this week and promised myself I wouldn't bother checking any figures above and beyond the daily reports.

But given the huge rise in numbers today I thought I'd give it a look to see anything developing.

2167 cases

38 in people aged over 65
281 in people aged 45-64**

741 in people aged 25-44

515 in people aged 20-24 (note the huge number from the small age bracket)

239 aged 15-19
343 aged 0-14

** My own opinion is that this figure surely represents a sizeable % of where hospital patients and serious cases will come from, I might be wrong on that but that certainly stuck out to me.

**************

4 deaths

3 aged 75-84
1 aged 25-44

**************

17k first doses
15k second doses

Vaccination figures probably the most concerning of all. Very low, and with Scotland having lower antibody levels than the rest of the UK, these vaccination figures aren't big enough to nip these case and hospital rises in the bud.
 
Thanks Ayrshire - very helpful.

Those over 65 numbers are very consistent with what we see in N Ireland daily and at twice their case numbers from a week in one day.

It is why there is a real chance of us opening up in coming weeks.

Because only 2/3% or so of the most vulnerable are catching this thing even in Scotland.

Exactly as is true elsewhere.

Happily the younger people overwhelmingly catching this now are much less likely to die or become long term hospital patients keeping those numbers to a minimum

And vaccinating as many as possible i those ages is going to depress that.

THose numbers are actually really good news imo.

Even if that rise infers England will increase too today and we may have a bit of a scary looking number.

But cases are not the key. Just a scary number right now. The number of those catching it who will get sick, stay in hospital for more than a day or two and a few weeks later sadly die are.

And ALL the evidence we are seeing from everywhere is consistently showing the same thing. These are a much much smaller percentage than they were before the vaccinations.

Go enjoy your holiday! You deserve it.
 
Northern Ireland data


0 deaths - was 0 last week

187 cases - was 115 last week

7.4% positivity - was 5.2% last week

3 care home outbreaks - was 3 yesterday & 2 last week

1122 rolling 7 day cases total - was 1064 yesterday and 722 last week

13 patients - DOWN 3 on yesterday - was 15 last week.

0 ventilated - same a yesterday & last week


AGE RANGES OF THE CASES FROM THE LAST 7 DAYS

0 - 19 (404) 36.1%

20 - 39 (461) 41.1%

40 - 59 (207) 18.5%

60 - 79 (44) 3.9%

80 PLUS (5) 0.4%


Much as every week and much as in Scotland - just one in 25 testing positive over 60 and nearly 8 out of 10 under 40.

Same pattern as everywhere and why these high cases are much less of a disaster than similar numbers were when we had them in the last two waves.

Though NI has been better able to stop the new variant arriving thanks to the sea between them and the mainland and advanced warning.

But below is a kind of 'look at what you could have won' bullseye gesture to Boris. Had he not dithered over India.


13 people in hospital with Covid from 1.9 MILLION people in the entire country.

And nobody on ventilators and no deaths for over a week is the consequence here.

That means far more than that cases are up week to week.
 
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Our family are on an antibody trial, so are tested weekly. My 20 year old son was convinced his test yesterday would show vaccine antibodies after his vaccine almost 2 weeks ago. But he is still the only one from the 4 of us with no antibodies. I hope other 20 year olds realise it may take a while for their antibodies to materialise.
 
Total deaths today 29 - highest in a couple of months.

Last week it was 18. But that was reduced to 10 on all settings later. Presumably some double counting.

Wk before it was 13 - all in England.

Cases from the three nations today are 2529 - that is way up from 1187 last week. More than doubled.

Wk before it was 798 - so more than trippled in the pat fortnight.


Hopefully not such a big rise in England but not too optimistic.
 
27 all settings deaths. Biggest in several weeks.

11, 625 cases - which is up just under 1000 on the day - much of that in Scotland - so OK considering what it might have been.

Up from 7673 last week

England up 330 from 8766 to 9096 - versus 6486 last week.


That UK number is up 51.5% wk to wk But the England one is a 40.2% rise.

Just over a million tests today - down about 112 K from yesterday.
 
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ayrshire_blue said:
Away a little monday-friday break in Argyll and Bute area this week and promised myself I wouldn't bother checking any figures above and beyond the daily reports.

But given the huge rise in numbers today I thought I'd give it a look to see anything developing.

2167 cases

38 in people aged over 65
281 in people aged 45-64**

741 in people aged 25-44

515 in people aged 20-24 (note the huge number from the small age bracket)

239 aged 15-19
343 aged 0-14

** My own opinion is that this figure surely represents a sizeable % of where hospital patients and serious cases will come from, I might be wrong on that but that certainly stuck out to me.

**************

4 deaths

3 aged 75-84
1 aged 25-44

**************

17k first doses
15k second doses

Vaccination figures probably the most concerning of all. Very low, and with Scotland having lower antibody levels than the rest of the UK, these vaccination figures aren't big enough to nip these case and hospital rises in the bud.
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And Scottish school break up at the end of this week as well, increasing likelihood of transmission.

We were heading up to Galloway and then to Argyll in the campervan (from Sheffield not Manc) so will be watching closely in case more of us English become unwelcome !
 
Not a great day for Greater Manchester. Numbers up almost everywhere.

Only Oldham, Stockport and Trafford are down day to day and of those only Trafford also down week to week.

Manchester back up over 300 and up 53 week to week.

Wigan second highest up a lot day to day and week to week on 161.

And Bolton, Bury and Salford all also up over 100 again.

Oldham was lowest scorer on 75.
 
North West on 2790 - up 349 on the day. Greater Manchester on 1248 - up 162 on the day.

Not terrible. About par maybe slightly below. But not well below as it has been recently.


North West wk to wk up 773 from 2017. Greater Manchester up 234 wk to wk from 1014.

As you see that IS considerably below the 50% number expected.


So overall not as terrible a day for the NW as it might seem on raw numbers.

Not quite as good on the day to day numbers as it has been but pretty good wk to wk.

Which is probably more important regarding trends.

Especially when you see it as Greater Manchester has FALLEN as a proportion of the cases in the North West on a day when those cases rose wk to wk by about 38%. GM only rose by 23%

Recall the England rise was about 40% so NW was just under that. But GM was significantly smaller than the overall England rise.

And much smaller than the 51% UK rise week to week. Less than half in fact.

All evidence that GM is doing relarively well controlling these numbers right now.
 
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Vaccinations are right down. Looks like supply problems. When Hancock and Johnson announced the delay in the easing of lockdown I recall them saying this would allow another circa 3.5m vaccinations, and people on this forum very quickly picked up on the fact that at the current rate many more than that would be vaccinated. I'm guessing they knew at that point that the vaccine supply would dry up somewhat. if that's true why not just be straight with people and tell them ?
 
unicorn said:
And Scottish school break up at the end of this week as well, increasing likelihood of transmission.

We were heading up to Galloway and then to Argyll in the campervan (from Sheffield not Manc) so will be watching closely in case more of us English become unwelcome !
Click to expand...

Not sure if it increases or decreases it tbh, out of the classrooms and into fresh air for a lot of them, it might actually have a beneficial affect as opposed to a detrimental one.

Huge numbers in any case, now just around 700 or so off the peak cases in January. I know we now have the vaccines etc but just how far are these numbers going to climb? 3,000, 5,000, 10,000?
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Vaccinations are right down. Looks like supply problems. When Hancock and Johnson announced the delay in the easing of lockdown I recall them saying this would allow another circa 3.5m vaccinations, and people on this forum very quickly picked up on the fact that at the current rate many more than that would be vaccinated. I'm guessing they knew at that point that the vaccine supply would dry up somewhat. if that's true why not just be straight with people and tell them ?
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They've been trending down for a long time largely I think because we're relying on Pfizer and Moderna for younger age groups, but today's data is NI only according to gov.uk
 
Well, had a week off here, some things have changed, others not so much.

Bad: Cancelled our French holiday as 19yo can't travel under current restrictions and they're only getting tighter.
Good: 19yo and 21yo sons both got first jabs
Bad: UK cases still remorselessly rising ~exponentially, doubling time ~two weeks
Good: European cases still mainly plummeting, save for Portugal and Spain it seems. Vaccination in EU looks increasingly likely to win the race with Delta.
Bad: hospitalisations and now it seems probably deaths following the exponential growth of cases (always expected, but still...)
Good: I think we are likely to peak this wave within a month.

Why the latter?

We're currently vaccinating at a rate to cover ~10% of the population in a month (and have been for several months)
Currently over 60% of the population are vaccinated, leaving 40% susceptible (numbers include children, and single vaxxed, but roughly)
So we'll reduce the number of susceptible people from 40% to 30%, a factor of 0.75. That's equivalent to knocking down R from ~1.3 it is now to ~1.0. Zero growth.

It gets better: we're currently infecting ~10,000 daily, so they become immune. But it's likely that's a huge underestimate of real infections, which on historical rates are likely ~2.5x higher, say 25,000. Equivalent to 10% of vaccinations, so worth having.

But if that continued to double at the current rate, it would be 100,000 daily. It's better still; vaccinations hit those already immune through infection as well as the unprotected, but infections only target the susceptible. And likely ~25% of the population has acquired antibodies through infection. Those those 100,000 infections would actually be worth ~130,000 vaccinations. Which is half the number currently being fully vaccinated daily.

So here's an optimistic prediction. The current growth rate of ~30% weekly will drop by ~1% a day on average over the next month to zero.

Bookmark this and come back and tell me I'm a fool when it goes tits up. The current Euros potential superspreader might just catalyse a big increase...

[I think this is in line with some of the modelling which suggested we'd be at or around peak when the four week delay is up, but can't locate it]
 
Any ideas why the Indian variant hasn't really taken hold in mainland Europe yet (as far as I can see)? It's certainly present in most of those countries already but doesn't seem to have taken off yet. Jut wondering if there was a reason why. Or do we have that still to come?
 
England hospital update:

A good day in the NW.

Fewest people admitted for over 2 weeks. Just 42. Seven days ago it was 66.

This is also the lowest % of the daily England admissions from the NW in some weeks too. Still the most at just over 25% But a week ago it was daily aound 33%.

There were 171 admissions (2 day old data remember) down from 178 the day before AND lower than last week too when it was 187.

Unfortuntely that is where the good news for the NW ends. See post below.
 
Got my second jab booked for Sunday..was sick of waiting so rang up and got an appointment
10 weeks since first AZ..just about got my vaccine status set up on the NHS app..security like bloody Fort Knox !
 
KnaresboroughBlue said:
Any ideas why the Indian variant hasn't really taken hold in mainland Europe yet (as far as I can see)? It's certainly present in most of those countries already but doesn't seem to have taken off yet. Jut wondering if there was a reason why. Or do we have that still to come?
Click to expand...

Because it's hidden beneath the headline figures?

So falling Alpha variant masks rapid increase in Delta variant? You could have very small numbers of Delta variant cases that havea steep growth curve but you wouldn't see them at the headline figure because the numbers are so small?

It's also harder to start clusters off in mainland Europe. English tourists could leave infection trails that get broken but if you are returning to a packed household and there's a few of you doing so you can build a cluster. Epidemiologically it is easier for clusters to build in UK but we've had that discussion before on here and it wans't accepted.
 
I see merkel just had her second vaccine moderna first was AZ..mixing it up
 
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