Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Gremlin]

As I said earlier I’ve nothing against vaccines but think people should be free to choose. Certainly wouldn’t believe everything bent governments all over the show are peddling.

You are free to choose - there is no law that says you have to get vaccinated. Fortunately most people have decided that they will.

 

[SWP's back]

Yeah, loads of healthy IDIOTS who choose not to take an untested vaccine are currently dying all over the country. Like to see who you blame when they lock us down again this winter when the flu returns.

It’s not untested as you’ve been told a million times before you fucking idiot.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

It is bad, and rather depressing, but definitely not back to square one.

The vaccination programme will reduce R, and infections will reduce it further. It's near impossible for the current exponential growth to continue for more than a short number of weeks, I think.

And there will be far less hospitalisations and deaths than last time.

The way we are going we will be in a further lockdown rather than moving towards so called freedom day. :-(

 

[grunge]

But we do get rid of SARS and MERS - the reason being people are not asymptomatic when they catch it - The reason why SARS-2 is such a nasty virus.

MERS is still about, keeps occasionally jumping from Camels to humans and starting over again.

but as you say, easy to track as only transmissible while symptomatic. and far more severe than SARS or Covid so easier to detect/trap.

Edit: missread your post. though you said "did" rather than "do"

 

[twosips]

Well looks like we are on our way to 4000 admissions a day and back to square one. Pretty depressing stuff.

We're quite literally miles off that currently mate. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. We're barely at 200 a day in the UK. There is no guarantee it's going to get 20 times the current number.

Admissions has currently slowed in the NW for example at the moment, way below 100.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

For Delta ~10% are double dosed.

According to the agency’s latest variant technical briefing,3 as of 14 June a total of 806 people had been admitted to hospital with the delta variant of the virus—an increase of 423 since last week. Among these cases, 527 people were unvaccinated and only 84 of the 806 had received both doses.

From the BMJ

Covid-19: Cases of delta variant rise by 79%, but rate of growth slows

Almost all new cases of covid-19 are the delta variant but new data suggests that while case numbers are increasing, the rate of growth is slower than a week ago. Public Health England’s weekly covid-19 variant cases data1 show that numbers of the delta variant in the UK have risen by 33 630...

www.bmj.com

You can't infer efficacy directly from that, as there are too many confounding factors, but current central estimate (with considerable uncertainty) is 94%.

Public library - UKHSA national - Knowledge Hub

khub.net

AstraZeneca, Pfizer vaccines effective against Delta COVID-19 variants-study

COVID-19 vaccines made by AstraZeneca (AZN.L) and the Pfizer-BioNTech (PFE.N), (22UAy.DE) alliance remain broadly effective against Delta and Kappa variants of the COVID-19 causing virus, which were first identified in India, according to a scientific study, underpinning a continued push to...

www.reuters.com

So 10% being double dosed ties in near exactly with the study on how effective the vaccines are?

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

We're quite literally miles off that currently mate. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. We're barely at 200 a day in the UK. There is no guarantee it's going to get 20 times the current number.

Admissions has currently slowed in the NW for example at the moment, way below 100.

It was just what roubaixtuesday had worked out based on 4% of case numbers ending up in hospital and case numbers rising steeply, which is what they are doing.​

 

[Manchester33]

Indeed, it's just the odds seem to stack up to incredible figures which make it quite unlikely. You'd first need to be the kind of person who is from a red listed country and decides to take a specific route into the UK to avoid the hotel quarantine (illegal).

You'd then have to test negative to fly and then upon arrival you'd also need to break the 10 days of quarantine (illegal) whilst again playing the odds to test negative in two further tests. This isn't just criminal behaviour, I'd say it's also someone who is extremely lucky!

In any event, surely they could quite easily trace these cases to the ground zero case and then prosecute?

That's not how it's spreading though, I'm sure the vast majority from red list countries are isolating properly. It's the planes/airport where it spreads.

Passenger A flies from red list country, stopping at Amber list country en-route. His second plane from amber list country is filled with passenger B who happens to sit next to passenger A. When they land, all planes (regardless of traffic light system) queue in customs together. Passenger C who's come from a green list country is directly behind passenger A and B. All three end up with Covid. Passenger A isolates in a hotel, passenger B isolates at home (but spreads it to his whole household who are allowed to do as they please and passenger C doesn't have to isolate and goes out spreading the virus. That's before we look at airline staff who are among the likeliest of professions to catch COVID.

Remember, at the absolute best the PCR tests only pick up 90% of cases. There are thousands of people coming into the country daily. It doesn't take a genius to work out the system is flawed. All it takes is one person on a plane to infect a dozen or so, then straight away the contact tracing is nearly impossible as we don't know who has it until day two tests start coming back (after 5/6 days which was my experience after Porto).

 

[Manchester33]

If true, that has to be some sort of "catch up" figure, it's so ridiculously higher than previous days.

England v Scotland has a lot to answer for......

 

[Tonster]

The way we are going we will be in a further lockdown rather than moving towards so called freedom day. :-(

Utter bollocks. By 19th July another 15 million or so doses will be given as well.

 

[feelymcfeel]

MERS is still about, keeps occasionally jumping from Camels to humans and starting over again.

but as you say, easy to track as only transmissible while symptomatic. and far more severe than SARS or Covid so easier to detect/trap.

Edit: missread your post. though you said "did" rather than "do"

But what if a new variant pops up that means MERS becomes transmissible whilst asymptomatic?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The way we are going we will be in a further lockdown rather than moving towards so called freedom day. :-(

The whole "freedom day" schtick gets on my tits TBH.

And even moreso the seeming insistence from Johnson, Hancock et al to insist everything is hunky dory when it's blindingly obvious it isn't, right up to the last minute when there's a screeching U turn.

But I don't think we'll get another lockdown. Aside from being politically ruinous, I don't think the damage could be rationally justified given the much lower death an hospitalisation rate, and the likely impact of further vaccination on slowing and reducing the peak of the wave regardless.

Do we have criteria for "freedom day"? I don't recall anything objective, just vague words about potential to overwhelm NHS.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

AstraZeneca, Pfizer vaccines effective against Delta COVID-19 variants-study

COVID-19 vaccines made by AstraZeneca (AZN.L) and the Pfizer-BioNTech (PFE.N), (22UAy.DE) alliance remain broadly effective against Delta and Kappa variants of the COVID-19 causing virus, which were first identified in India, according to a scientific study, underpinning a continued push to...

www.reuters.com

So 10% being double dosed ties in near exactly with the study on how effective the vaccines are?

Yes, but that's just a coincidence.

For instance...

If the vaccine was 90% effective, and 95% of people had been double dosed, then you'd expect 2/3 of people in hospital to be double dosed, all things being equal. Because (10% of 95%) in hospital is ~twice (100% of 5%)

The proportion hospitalised depends on the ages of those exposed, the proportion vaccinated and the vaccine effectiveness.

 

[Len Rum]

19 all settings deaths

16, 135 cases - big jump up sadly even in England. Was 9055 last Wednesday. Nearly doubled.

Highest number since 6 February.

Jesus.
Those numbers are a bit shit.

 

[grunge]

But what if a new variant pops up that means MERS becomes transmissible whilst asymptomatic?

Honestly, we'd be in the real shit. Case Fatality rate for MERS is about 35% compared to 1% for Covid.

Still seems to hit over 60's the most mind you. so maybe it would level out a lot.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

The whole "freedom day" schtick gets on my tits TBH.

And even moreso the seeming insistence from Johnson, Hancock et al to insist everything is hunky dory when it's blindingly obvious it isn't, right up to the last minute when there's a screeching U turn.

But I don't think we'll get another lockdown. Aside from being politically ruinous, I don't think the damage could be rationally justified given the much lower death an hospitalisation rate, and the likely impact of further vaccination on slowing and reducing the peak of the wave regardless.

Do we have criteria for "freedom day"? I don't recall anything objective, just vague words about potential to overwhelm NHS.

I dont know tbh. Just totally cheesed off with this virus and the knock on effect it is having on my family.

 

[Craig]

It’s not untested as you’ve been told a million times before you fucking idiot.

You really think it’s gone through the same rigorous testing a normal vaccination would? Yes, I know there was a reason it was rushed but my point still stands. You’re probably in denial of how Ill some healthy people have become from the vaccine too.

 

[Manchester33]

The way we are going we will be in a further lockdown rather than moving towards so called freedom day. :-(

Don't let the fear mongering get to you.

Remember Boris Johnson said he expects things to get worse before the 19th of July. This is all expected.

By the 19th of July, we'll have jabbed MILLIONS more people. Over 80% of the population have anti-bodies now. This is COVIDs last hurrah in the UK and it's probably better that cases are higher now than leading into flu season.

Sadly people are dying now. Barely any, but some. Most of those are incredibly frail/have severe underlying illnesses/refused the vaccine/died with COVID, not because of COVID.

The NHS has been protected/saved, there is no longer a need to lockdown and even the Tories aren't stupid enough to get that wrong.

 

[Tonster]

You really think it’s gone through the same rigorous testing a normal vaccination would? Yes, I know there was a reason it was rushed but my point still stands. You’re probably in denial of how Ill some healthy people have become from the vaccine too.

Yes of course it fucking was. The speed was faster because no waiting for funding, no waiting for volunteers, no waiting for government approvals. Everything was expedited in a global effort. Tit.

 

[Gremlin]

It was just what roubaixtuesday had worked out based on 4% of case numbers ending up in hospital and case numbers rising steeply, which is what they are doing.​

One way of looking at it is to compare with what happened before. The last time there were 16,000 daily cases on a rising curve was 5 Oct last year. At that point there were >500 daily admissions. This time we are just over 200. The link isn't broken but its obviously weakened.