Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Manchester33]

You really think it’s gone through the same rigorous testing a normal vaccination would?

To be fair the testing element of the vaccine has been the same as a 'normal vaccine'. It's more the review and usually mandatory waiting that has been sped up. It's impossible to compare to other vaccines as non of their trials had anything like the level of participants as the covid vaccines have had. We have tons of data that proves they are safe.

As a fit and healthy person in my mid-twenties, I was unsure about getting the vaccine, but realistically millions have been vaccinated worldwide and only minor side effects (or incredibly rare blood clots) have been reported. What is it you're actually worried might happen if you get the vaccine?

 

[Manchester33]

One way of looking at it is to compare with what happened before. The last time there were 16,000 daily cases on a rising curve was 5 Oct last year. At that point there were >500 daily admissions. This time we are just over 200. The link isn't broken but its obviously weakened.

And those admissions have a higher rate of survival now. They also are discharged much sooner than in October - so admissions won't have a comparable strain on the NHS as they did then.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

One way of looking at it is to compare with what happened before. The last time there were 16,000 daily cases on a rising curve was 5 Oct last year. At that point there were >500 daily admissions. This time we are just over 200. The link isn't broken but its obviously weakened.

Absolutely. Things are much better than they were.

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester data is odd

Up a lot. But the two best areas today were Bury and Bolton.

Bury the ONLY borough not over 100 today. At 88.

Bolton fell two to 116 and was joint second best with Rochdale on that number!

Bolton and Bury the only two boroughs with fewer cases (indeed many quite a lot more) than yesterday.

Manchester over 400 for the first time since last Winter.

 

[Gremlin]

You really think it’s gone through the same rigorous testing a normal vaccination would? Yes, I know there was a reason it was rushed but my point still stands. You’re probably in denial of how Ill some healthy people have become from the vaccine too.

You think nobody gets ill from 'normal vaccinations'? Sorry but they do and some of them even die but it is accepted as the price of preventing larger numbers of people getting ill or dying from the disease that the vaccination is designed to prevent. And that is exactly what is happening with the Covid vaccine as well.

 

[zerox]

But predictions are hard, especially about the future, and vaccination could make a bigger difference to deaths, and maybe cause a very rapid cases turnaround. Feels like clutching at straws though.

you have just posted the best statement on this whole thread, A CLASSIC

 

[grunge]

To be fair the testing element of the vaccine has been the same as a 'normal vaccine'. It's more the review and usually mandatory waiting that has been sped up. It's impossible to compare to other vaccines as non of their trials had anything like the level of participants as the covid vaccines have had. We have tons of data that proves they are safe.

As a fit and healthy person in my mid-twenties, I was unsure about getting the vaccine, but realistically millions have been vaccinated worldwide and only minor side effects (or incredibly rare blood clots) have been reported. What is it you're actually worried might happen if you get the vaccine?

Billions, over 3bn doses given now.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

.

You really think it’s gone through the same rigorous testing a normal vaccination would? Yes, I know there was a reason it was rushed but my point still stands. You’re probably in denial of how Ill some healthy people have become from the vaccine too.

You're probably in denial of how all medicines, including all vaccines have side effects and risks.

Indeed, there is a UK compensation scheme which has paid out to over 900 severely affected people.

This FOI about vaccines is real – Full Fact

The UK Vaccine Damage Payment provides payments to people who are severely disabled by vaccines.

fullfact.org

You can compare that number to the 150,000 dead from COVID if it helps.

 

[Healdplace]

GM cases up to 1606 - highest daily number since last Winter. A rise of 358 day to day.

NW on 3620 - also highest since last Winter. A rise of 830 day to day - so pro rata 358 again is a GOOD day for GM. Around 415 would be expected.

Week to week NW is up 1463 - the biggest week to week rise yet, easily.

GM is up 681 of that number - again just below expectations as 50% of NW numbers is about par so you would expect a rise of around 730.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

One way of looking at it is to compare with what happened before. The last time there were 16,000 daily cases on a rising curve was 5 Oct last year. At that point there were >500 daily admissions. This time we are just over 200. The link isn't broken but its obviously weakened.

I thought the same untill it was pointed out that there is about a 2 to 3 week lag between admissions and cases. Ie the 200+ admissions relate to circa 5 to 6 k of cases a couple of weeks ago. follow that rational thru and wont we will be at 500 admissions a day in 2 weeks time?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

you have just posted the best statement on this whole thread, A CLASSIC

I should have attributed it. Niels Bohr, famous Danish Physicist

 

[Gremlin]

I thought the same untill it was pointed out that there is about a 2 to 3 week lag between admissions and cases. Ie the 200+ admissions relate to circa 5 to 6 k of cases a couple of weeks ago. follow that rational thru and wont we will be at 500 admissions a day in 2 weeks time?

No - there was the same 2-3 week lag in October as well so the comparison is valid.

 

[Tonster]

I thought the same untill it was pointed out that there is about a 2 to 3 week lag between admissions and cases. Ie the 200+ admissions relate to circa 5 to 6 k of cases a couple of weeks ago. follow that rational thru and wont we will be at 500 admissions a day in 2 weeks time?

Also as we have 10/15K new cases a day, mainly in the younger as yet unvaccinated we are heading the overall immunity of the country up along with the 400K+ jabs being given on average every day.

 

[andyhinch]

You really think it’s gone through the same rigorous testing a normal vaccination would? Yes, I know there was a reason it was rushed but my point still stands. You’re probably in denial of how Ill some healthy people have become from the vaccine too.

Here’s something simple for you, your offered a choice, go into the room on the left and you’ve got a 1 in 10 chance of getting ill, go into the room on the right you’ve got a 1 in 1000 chance of getting ill. Which room would you choose ?

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital numbers.

Some good news.

They FELL today. By 46 to 1255. Last week on Wednesday they rose by 27 to 1057.

Every region fell apart from the SW - up 3 to 47.

North West did not fall a lot - just from 445 to 437. But last Wednesday it went up from 349 to 379. So this is OK news given the huge case numbers in the past week. 19,000 NW cases and just 58 people extra in hospital. Though I realise there is a bit of a lag the number in the 7 days before that were still around 15,000 NW cases.

Sadly NW ventilators rose by 1 to 84. But that is a modest rise from 75 last week too.

And the overall ventilated patients in England FELL by 2 to 227.

 

[Craig]

Here’s something simple for you, your offered a choice, go into the room on the left and you’ve got a 1 in 10 chance of getting ill, go into the room on the right you’ve got a 1 in 1000 chance of getting ill. Which room would you choose ?

Fair enough but we aren’t talking 1 in 10 on this even for old people never mind fit and healthy. As I said I’m not anti vaccine I just think people should have a choice. Also if the vaccine is as effective as we all help we’ll be fine to crack on later this year but it doesn’t seem like that will happen.

 

[Blue Llama]

You really think it’s gone through the same rigorous testing a normal vaccination would? Yes, I know there was a reason it was rushed but my point still stands. You’re probably in denial of how Ill some healthy people have become from the vaccine too.

Another intellectual who prefers to get information from Facebook or mates rather than experienced scientists. If you had ever been involved with a supplier to the pharmacy industry you would know that organisations like the FDA and others do not cut corners quite the opposite. How many of these organisations have now approved these vaccines? Are they all wrong?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

but we aren’t talking 1 in 10 on this even for old people

Yes we are. Infection fatality rate is estimated ~10% for 80 year olds.

Assessing the Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19: Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis, and Public Policy Implications

Objective Determine age-specific infection fatality rates for COVID-19 to inform public health policies and communications that help protect vulnerable age groups. Methods Studies of COVID-19 prevalence were collected by conducting an online search of published articles, preprints, and...

www.medrxiv.org

 

[andyhinch]

Fair enough but we aren’t talking 1 in 10 on this even for old people never mind fit and healthy. As I said I’m not anti vaccine I just think people should have a choice. Also if the vaccine is as effective as we all help we’ll be fine to crack on later this year but it doesn’t seem like that will happen.

Sorry I thought you were anti vaccine, when did you get yours and were you ill ?

 

[twosips]

England hospital numbers.

Some good news.

They FELL today. By 46 to 1255. Last week on Wednesday they rose by 27 to 1057.

Every region fell apart from the SW - up 3 to 47.

North West did not fall a lot - just from 445 to 437. But last Wednesday it went up from 349 to 379. So this is OK news given the huge case numbers in the past week. 19,000 NW cases and just 58 people extra in hospital. Though I realise there is a bit of a lag the number in the 7 days before that were still around 15,000 NW cases.

Sadly NW ventilators rose by 1 to 84. But that is a modest rise from 75 last week too.

And the overall ventilated patients in England FELL by 2 to 227.

See @Churchlawtonblue - many, many more twists in this. There is absolutely no guarantee we're getting anywhere near 4k admissions a day. It could happen, but it just as easily might not! Feel positive mate.