Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Churchlawtonblue]

See @Churchlawtonblue - many, many more twists in this. There is absolutely no guarantee we're getting anywhere near 4k admissions a day. It could happen, but it just as easily might not! Feel positive mate.

Cheers, just felt quite cheesed off at those case figures.

 

[Tonster]

Cheers, just felt quite cheesed off at those case figures.

But just think of it as closer to herd immunity threshold. Most of those 16K today won’t be very ill as they are almost all under 40. As the vaccine rollout continues even the spread in the lower ages will slow down. Every day is closer to the goal. Surely you can see it’s not the same as before. Chin up

 

[andyhinch]

Yes we are. Infection fatality rate is estimated ~10% for 80 year olds.

View attachment 19927

Assessing the Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19: Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis, and Public Policy Implications

Objective Determine age-specific infection fatality rates for COVID-19 to inform public health policies and communications that help protect vulnerable age groups. Methods Studies of COVID-19 prevalence were collected by conducting an online search of published articles, preprints, and...

www.medrxiv.org

Just for Craig ;-)

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

But just think of it as closer to herd immunity threshold. Most of those 16K today won’t be very ill as they are almost all under 40. As the vaccine rollout continues even the spread in the lower ages will slow down. Every day is closer to the goal. Surely you can see it’s not the same as before. Chin up

I did, but earlier Roubiaxtuesday justified the potential for 4000 daily hospital admissions on the rise in case numbers.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I did, but earlier Roubiaxtuesday justified the potential for 4000 daily hospital admissions on the rise in case numbers.

*Potential* for - yes. But not a certainty and not a prediction.

The context of that post was pointing out that vaccines are more effective than infections at getting to herd immunity- *if* we rely on infections to get to immunity then we will likely end up with hospitalisations at that kind of level.

But my hope and if I had to make one, prediction, would be that we don't get more than two more doublings in cases before the peak, as immunity rises through vaccination and then schools go on holiday to boot. I would also hope that the link to hospitalisations will weaken further too.

But much is very uncertain.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

4% hospitalisation is over estimated. This moving sum shows that. Over the next few days we'll hit 2.5% as the current data is at this level already and over the next week 2% will be hit. And this is why the hospitalisation won't follow cases

 

[Healdplace]

Cases across the regions:


Change in last 24 hrs V seven days ago

SOME BIG RISES EVERYWHERE AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT


SOUTH


East UP 229 to 671 V 340 - relatively OK but doubled wk to wk.

London UP 543 to 1609 V 1168 - their highest numbers in months

South East UP 301 to 1118 V 776

South West UP 305 to 993 V 610


Rises starting to escalate down south now.




MIDLANDS



East UP 139 to 739 V 440

West UP 287 to 1108 V 514



Midlands starting to double now too.




NORTH



North East UP 381 to 1095 V 567 - First time over 1000 since last winter and doubled in week


Yorkshire UP 546 to 1521 V 802- - bust right through the 1000 barrier it has been hovering below. Another doubling.



AND

NORTH WEST UP 830 to 3620 V 2157 - unfortunately the biggest rise I can recall day to day and week to week



Past weeks NW numbers are 2157 - 2858 - 2754 - 2538 - 2107 - 2441 - 2790 - 3620

Equivalent NW numbers a week earlier 2112 - 1976 - 2317 - 2191 - 2134 -2262 - 2017 - 2157

GM numbers in past week 925 - 1341 - 1306 - 1151- 974 - 1086 - 1248 - 1606

Scary as that number today looks it is 2014 below the NW total and 7 days ago the gap was just 1232.

So GM is still improving relative to the rest of the region.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

I did, but earlier Roubiaxtuesday justified the potential for 4000 daily hospital admissions on the rise in case numbers.

for 4000 hospitalisation we'd need in the region of 200,000 cases a day and the virus hasn't got that kind of unvaccinated population to hit as it would hit a brick wall after two or three days of that level. 2,000 a day would be a more realistic which is far far lower than the NHS breaking point.

 

[hilts]

As I said earlier I’ve nothing against vaccines but think people should be free to choose. Certainly wouldn’t believe everything bent governments all over the show are peddling.

Free choice is important like the choice to employ people, treat people and fly people. Problem with anti vaxxers they don’t actually understand what choice means nor what society means come to think of it.

 

[johnnytapia]

Here’s something simple for you, your offered a choice, go into the room on the left and you’ve got a 1 in 10 chance of getting ill, go into the room on the right you’ve got a 1 in 1000 chance of getting ill. Which room would you choose ?

You’re in a room with Alex Ferguson, Sadam Hussein and Adolf Hitler. You are handed a gun which has two bullets. Who do you shoot?
Ferguson.
Twice

 

[Healdplace]

Full GM details:


Total cases 1606 - UP 358 on Yesterday - from NW rise of 830. So below the 50% par of atound 415 - OK.

Wk to wk UP 681 when the NW rose by 1463, biggest rise in a while for both - So GM is up but by just under the 50% of 730.

An OK day rather than a good day wk to wk relative to rest of the region. A little disappointing imo.


BOROUGH / CASES TODAY / V YESTERDAY / V LAST WEEK



BOLTON 116 / DOWN 2 / UP 28

BURY 88 / DOWN 19 / UP 3

MANCHESTER 447 / UP 126 / UP 241

OLDHAM 122 / UP 47 / UP 62

ROCHDALE 116 / UP 31 / UP 44

SALFORD 158 / UP 29 / UP 54

STOCKPORT 121 / UP 36 / UP 50

TAMESIDE 128 / UP 42 / UP 72

TRAFFORD 129 / UP 48 / UP 62

WIGAN 181 / UP 20 / UP 65


Not much you can say here - wall to wall big rises day to day and week to week. Manchester up 241 stands out as that will do huge damage to its Pop Score. But almost everywhere has had a bad day in that regard. And every single borough up week to week - mist by a quite a lot with a big weekly Pop rise in reward.

Bury the only one actually under 100 and with little damage to its Pop Score and Bolton sercond lowest numbers in the county so whatever worked there surely did work. Upscaled rapid vaccinations presumably.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

for 4000 hospitalisation we'd need in the region of 200,000 cases a day and the virus hasn't got that kind of unvaccinated population to hit as it would hit a brick wall after two or three days of that level.

You keep on making very certain statements without a justification. What's your rationale?

Currently just over 60% of the UK population are vaccinated, and less than half fully vaccinated.

Even if you take the 60%, that leaves something like, what, 25 million people susceptible?

Rather more than 2-3 days.

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Tameside 585, Rochdale 592, Oldham 619, Stockport 630, Bury 640, Trafford 646, Bolton 729, Salford 908 . Wigan 1099, Manchester 2276.



Manchester just escalating daily now and Wigan also in 4 figures weekly cases.

Both well ahead of Salford and Bolton.

Stockport's poor day was matched by all around it so no real impact on the positions but the best 6 (if 500/600 can be called best!) are within 61 of each other so could chage daily.

Heading for everyone 600 and above by the looks of things.

 

[worsleyweb]

You keep on making very certain statements without a justification. What's your rationale?

Currently just over 60% of the UK population are vaccinated, and less than half fully vaccinated.

Even if you take the 60%, that leaves something like, what, 25 million people susceptible?

Rather more than 2-3 days.

that 25 million people have all got to pass it to each other. It’s one where between the middle of you both. Not many are dieing of this now.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Where do we stand on getting Covid more than once? Is it common? Is it as severe the second time around?

It's like flu. The answer is how bad the mutation is.

England hospital numbers.

Some good news.

They FELL today. By 46 to 1255. Last week on Wednesday they rose by 27 to 1057.

Every region fell apart from the SW - up 3 to 47.

North West did not fall a lot - just from 445 to 437. But last Wednesday it went up from 349 to 379. So this is OK news given the huge case numbers in the past week. 19,000 NW cases and just 58 people extra in hospital. Though I realise there is a bit of a lag the number in the 7 days before that were still around 15,000 NW cases.

Sadly NW ventilators rose by 1 to 84. But that is a modest rise from 75 last week too.

And the overall ventilated patients in England FELL by 2 to 227.

Please note that the NHS are rolling out 3 new drugs in the fight against Covid:
- ivermectin (the anti parasite drug).
- An anti viral ( interferon beta)
- the trump cocktail (Regeneron)

These will have a large positive effect on serious illness from Covid.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

You keep on making very certain statements without a justification. What's your rationale?

Currently just over 60% of the UK population are vaccinated, and less than half fully vaccinated.

Even if you take the 60%, that leaves something like, what, 25 million people susceptible?

Rather more than 2-3 days.

The reason is the 10 day lagged hospitalisation rate is currently at 2.5% and dropping like a stone, see the graph a few pages back. It will be at 2% within the next week. To get to 4,000 you'd need 200,000+ cases.

It's been clearly shown that it's mainly the unvaxxed older people that are being hospitalised. These people equate to 2 million, you've used all population which is a ridiculous figure to quote as 23 million of them are under 30 and won't be affected at all. Using a Gaussian plot the peak will be within 25% of this 2 million susceptible population, the rest of it is spread over the tail ends. This equates to 500,000 and since you need 200,000 cases for 4,000 hospitalisations that equates to two and a half days. this is assuming it would rip through the population extremely quickly for that to happen and of course it won't it will be slow over months. The fact is we'll never see 4,000 a day hospitisations as it's mathematically impossible.


What's your reasoning for it ever reaching 4000?

 

[Healdplace]

GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.


Manchester 412 / 324 / UP 88 Testing positive 10.9%

Salford 351 / 334 / UP 17 Testing positive 10.2%

Bury 335 / 310 / UP 25 Testing positive 10.2%

Wigan 334 / 262 / UP 72 Testing positive 9.9%

Trafford 272 / 224 / UP 48 Testing positive 7.9%

Rochdale 266 / 224 / UP 42 Testing positive 10.5 %

Oldham 261 / 183 / UP 78 Testing positive 10.5%

Tameside 259 / 182 / UP 77 Testing positive 8.9%

Bolton 253 / 269 / DOWN 16 Testing positive 11.4%

Stockport 215 / 202 / UP 13 Testing positive 8.0%


Manchester way ahead of everyone and over 400 not far off where Bolton was 5 or 6 weeks ago at the height of the arrival of the new variant. On 18 May Bolton peaked at 456 and has gone steadily down since. Its speedy improvement from worst towards best in GM has played out in this table daily.

Indeed there is no doubt now that Stockport had a bad day by its recent standards that you can argue Bolton is now THE best performer in GM and is the only borough still falling week to week as Stockports numbers today took that awa and saw them climb over 200 also, Still well clear of Bolton and the rest but BL is coming for SK.

Pretty much everyone went up today. Unsurpriusingly given the big rise in case numbers in one go.

Trafford's high numbers remain worse than Stockport who actually had almost the same Pop Score rise as Bolton did today (the two best in GM today). So it lost it another big chunk of its lead on overall Pop Score.

Stockport now entered the 8000 club on 8015 and Trafford rose by 55 (14 more than Stockport) taking it to 7911 cutting its lead over Stockport for bet overall Pop Score across the entire pandemic by that number to 104. IUt was almost double that 2 weeks ago.

However, Bolton still has the highest GM Pop Score on 11, 409.

But Manchester is fast closing in on joining them in the 11K club on 10, 969 and will almot certainly get there tomrrow and on current rates will overtake Bolton with highest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic in a few weeks.

Rochdale on 10, 544 and Oldham 10, 533 still in a tight neighboroughood spat.

Salford are on 10, 244 and Bury just behind on 10, 219.

So only 4 boroughs now sub 10,000.

Wigan's dire run took it to 9883 and if they continue at this rate are about 2 or 3 days away from entering the 10K club as well.

Tameside possibly may get there too this side of autumn - at 8865 - but that is a good few weeks away. The 9000 club though by next week is pretty certain.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The reason is the 10 day lagged hospitalisation rate is currently at 2.5% and dropping like a stone, see the graph a few pages back. It will be at 2% within the next week. To get to 4,000 you'd need 200,000+ cases.

It's been clearly shown that it's mainly the unvaxxed older people that are being hospitalised. These people equate to 2 million, you've used all population which is a ridiculous figure to quote as 23 million of them are under 30 and won't be affected at all. Using a Gaussian plot the peak will be within 25% of this 2 million susceptible population, the rest of it is spread over the tail ends. This equates to 500,000 and since you need 200,000 cases for 4,000 hospitalisations that equates to two and a half days. this is assuming it would rip through the population extremely quickly for that to happen and of course it won't it will be slow over months. The fact is we'll never see 4,000 a day hospitisations as it's mathematically impossible.


What's your reasoning for it ever reaching 4000?

Your logic only holds if only 2 million (25-23) people are susceptible - you assume all cases are in older unvaxxed. You're an order of magnitude out.

My logic is upthread.

As I clarified, it was not a prediction.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

Your logic only holds if only 2 million (25-23) people are susceptible - you assume all cases are in older unvaxxed. You're an order of magnitude out.

My logic is upthread.

As I clarified, it was not a prediction.

my 2 million figure holds. If you want to add an extra million for the vaxxed unhealthy people then go for it it doesn't change the numbers massively it's still only 4 days of peak numbers if it hit 4,000 cases. It just isn't going to go that high it's mathematically impossible

 

[andyhinch]

GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.


Manchester 412 / 324 / UP 88 Testing positive 10.9%

Salford 351 / 334 / UP 17 Testing positive 10.2%

Bury 335 / 310 / UP 25 Testing positive 10.2%

Wigan 334 / 262 / UP 72 Testing positive 9.9%

Trafford 272 / 224 / UP 48 Testing positive 7.9%

Rochdale 266 / 224 / UP 42 Testing positive 10.5 %

Oldham 261 / 183 / UP 78 Testing positive 10.5%

Tameside 259 / 182 / UP 77 Testing positive 8.9%

Bolton 253 / 269 / DOWN 16 Testing positive 11.4%

Stockport 215 / 202 / UP 13 Testing positive 8.0%


Manchester way ahead of everyone and over 400 not far off where Bolton was 5 or 6 weeks ago at the height of the arrival of the new variant. On 18 May Bolton peaked at 456 and has gone steadily down since. Its speedy improvement from worst towards best in GM has played out in this table daily.

Indeed there is no doubt now that Stockport had a bad day by its recent standards that you can argue Bolton is now THE best performer in GM and is the only borough still falling week to week as Stockports numbers today took that awa and saw them climb over 200 also, Still well clear of Bolton and the rest but BL is coming for SK.

Pretty much everyone went up today. Unsurpriusingly given the big rise in case numbers in one go.

Trafford's high numbers remain worse than Stockport who actually had almost the same Pop Score rise as Bolton did today (the two best in GM today). So it lost it another big chunk of its lead on overall Pop Score.

Stockport now entered the 8000 club on 8015 and Trafford rose by 55 (14 more than Stockport) taking it to 7911 cutting its lead over Stockport for bet overall Pop Score across the entire pandemic by that number to 104. IUt was almost double that 2 weeks ago.

However, Bolton still has the highest GM Pop Score on 11, 409.

But Manchester is fast closing in on joining them in the 11K club on 10, 969 and will almot certainly get there tomrrow and on current rates will overtake Bolton with highest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic in a few weeks.

Rochdale on 10, 544 and Oldham 10, 533 still in a tight neighboroughood spat.

Salford are on 10, 244 and Bury just behind on 10, 219.

So only 4 boroughs now sub 10,000.

Wigan's dire run took it to 9883 and if they continue at this rate are about 2 or 3 days away from entering the 10K club as well.

Tameside possibly may get there too this side of autumn - at 8865 - but that is a good few weeks away. The 9000 club though by next week is pretty certain.

I’m out in Manchester on Friday I’ve found something nice to wear :-)
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/253240401876