COVID Data Thread

SCOTLAND DATA

13 deaths - was 19 last week

3360 cases - was 3852 last week

8.8% positivity - was 9.1% last week

774 patients -down 5 on yesterday - was 778 last week

57 ventilated icu - same as yesterday - was 61 last week~


THESE NUMBERS ARE MORE HOPEFUL TODAY
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

12 deaths - was 7 last week

1848 cases - was 1765 last week

10,889 WEEKLY CASES - WAS 10,653 YESTERDAY & 8775 LAST WEEK

33 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 34 YESTERDAY & 38 LAST WEEK

427 Patients - down 2 on yesterday - was 404 last week

26 ventilated - same as yesterday - was 28 last week


SOME HINTS OF PROGRESS HERE TOO AND THE NUMBERS OF OVER 60 TESTING POSITIVE HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR A FEW DAYS EVEN AS WEEKLY CASES RISE AS THE CARE HOME OUTBREAKS FALL AND THE NUMBERS TESTING POSITIVE UNDER 15 ESCALATE.

SEE THE GRAPH BELOW - NOW 30% UNDER 15 AND 41% UNDER 20 BUT ONLY 10% OVER 60

THIS IS HOW CASES ARE NOT TRANSLATING INTO DEATHS OR HOSPITALISATION ANYTHING LIKE THEY WERE
 
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NORTHERN IRELAND WEEKLY CASES WITH AGE RANGE OF THOSE TESTING POSITIVE BY NUMBERS IN EACH 5 YEAR RANGE - AGAIN NOTICE THE REMARKABLE FACT THAT MORE CHILDREN 4 AND UNDER ARE TESTING POSITIVE THAN ANY OF THE FIVE YEAR AGE RANGE BANDS OVER 65.

CANNOT THINK OF ANY EXPLANATION FOR THAT OTHER THAN THE YOUNGER YOU ARE THE LESS LIKELY DOWN TO NIL YOU WILL HAVE HAD A VACCINE.


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ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

Another week to week fall here and now looks certain that the next weekly total completed tomorrow will be in the high 500s and below BOTH the last two weeks which were 648 and 669 but will be above the 538 of the previous week.


131 with 24 North West

Was 146 with 13 North West last week

And 158 with 31 North West the week before


By Region:

East 13, London 7, Midlands 36, NE & Yorkshire 10, North West 24, South East 25, South West 16

6 each in Dartford & North Midlands the most


NORTH WEST BOROUGHS:

6 each in Manchester & Wigan, 4 in St Helens, 2 in Salford AND 1 each in Blackpool, Mid Cheshire, Pennine Acute (Oldham & Rochdale), Southport, Warrington and Wirral.


By Age:

20 - 39 (3), 40 - 59 (16), 60 - 79 (61) & 80 PLUS (51)

AGAIN NOTE MORE 60 - 79 THAN OVER 8O - ALMOST EVERY DAY NOW - & AND A KEY REASON DEATHS ARE FALLING I SUSPECT - I EXPECT THIS TO EVEN OUT OR CHANGE OVER AGAIN WHEN MOST OVER 60s HAVE HAD THE BOOSTER - LOOKING LIKE A KEY REASON DEATHS ARE FALLING HEAD(NG INTO MID WINTER NOT RISING
 
On 17 November last year (pre any vaccine) there were 598 deaths in the UK.

That was UP from 532 the week before & 397 the week before. So on a fast rising pathas we headed into mid winter and despite restrictions unlike now.

A week later on 24 November it was 608 and by a few days after Christmas over 1000 rising to 1820 as the wave peaked with three weeks over 1000 a day most days up to mid/late January.

Today there are 173 - so far though there will be some out of hospital in England to come to take it to about 200.

And the current trend is clearly down not clearly up as it was 12 months ago.
 
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ZOE APP NUMBERS

A day that is hard to call. Fairly static but trending up JUST.

The predicted cases

UP from 64, 297 two days ago to 64, 810 yesterday to 65,059 TODAY.

So numbers up again but by less tham yesterday (249 V 513) - So where it will go tomorrow we will see.


We DID fall below one million ongoing cases though - but this will keep falling as the number lags by a week or so any reversal of daily cases as ongoing cases last weeks and not just a one off daily number of new cases.

It did fall from 1,017,465 yesterday to 1.002,669 yesterday TO 989,204 Today - a fall of 13,465 - after a fall of 15, 040 the day before.

The size of the daily fall has been decreasing daily and we need to track this carefully as a falling epidemic versus a rising one are very different things. And if the daily fall reverses we will see that.


Regionally - too -Zoe shows North West UP again but only VERY slightly today compared with yesterday when it was the worst rise in the UK West MIdlands, London and Northern Ireland were up more. And others all fell small amounts.

NORTH WEST UP FROM 901/1184 TO 904 / 1188 - which is all but flat and it staty in 5th place out of 12.


The four regions above the North West are in order Wales - back on top and up more than NW, North East next but down the most today to 1023/1547, Northern Ireland UP more than NW and East - down by even less than the NW goes up)

Yorkshire (which was above North West) fell again and is now in 10th place out of 12 on 767 / 1065 which is not miles behind the NW and shows how close most regions are now to one another.

Nobody is in the lower zone - all below East MIdlands are in the middle one.

London remains the lowest but was UP out of the lowest watch zone by more than the NW today on 681 / 872 - the best numbers in the UK .

A SLIGHTLY BETTER DAY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY ON ZOE

AND GM NUMBERS WHICH I WILL POST LATER ARE EVEN BETTER.
 
201 all settings deaths

DOWN from 214 last week

England only 159 v 170 last week - So 28 out of hospital V 24 last week


38,263 cases

UP 1020 on yesterday

BUT DOWN 1066 from 39, 329 last week


ENGLAND only 30, 638 - DOWN 215 from yesterday & DOWN 903 from 31,541 last week

The first FALL week to week since last Wednesday
 
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NORTH WEST AND GREATER MANCHESTER SUMMARY

Unfortunately Zoe is right that the NW is now starting to go up day to day when others are falling. Though not by that much.

Indeed GM actually did reatively OK today - certainly better than yesterday. But not as good as it was a week ago.

North West was UP on both day and week but GM rises were much less than the expected split of the region.

NW on 4400 - up on the day by 549.

GM is on 1551 - which is up just 36 of that 549 - obviously good as it is arund 200 UNDER expectation - which iswhat you want with a rise.

Week to week North West rises by just 103 from 4297 and Greater Manchester is up from 35 of that 103 - - which is about a third and under the expected rise. But tiny numbers so no real issue but on the right side of any there is here too.

The best scores today were in Tameside - down 43 week to week on 109 - the lowest score in GM today.

And Trafford - down 42 week to week on 130. A better day than Stockport and gaininf 4 Pop Score points back.

Manchester had a mixed day - up a lot on the day to 268 - but that is down 30 week to week.

Bolton had a better day today happily too on 133 and down 11 week to week.

Bury on 111 is down 1 week to week.

The other 5 boroughs were all UP week to week.

Stockport by the least (9) on 147. Which is low enough to be less than 4 other boroughs.

Wigan up weekly by 18 on 198 - again only behind Manchester.

Oldham surprisingly up 29 weekly on 113.

Salford up 30 wk to wk on 160

And the worst numbers again are in Rochdale up a whopping 76 week to week on 182 and only behind Wigan and Manchester.

Certainly not as bad as yesterday but some boroughs are struggling and others setttling downward.

So overall more standstill than anything. The problems though are mainly elsewhere in the region (such as East Lancashire)
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL SUMMARY




ADMISSIONS (MONDAY) (always 48 hour behind on admissions - the rest of data is all from today)

695 V 850 last week


SO ADMISSIONS WELL DOWN WEEK TO WEEK AND ALSO A LOT FROM 899 THE MONDAY BEFORE

MONDAY IS USUALLY A BIG ADMISSIONS DAY SO THESE FALLS ARE WHY PATIENTS ARE GOING DOWN THIS WEEK


London 115 v 121 (DOWN 6), Midlands 128 v 157 (DOWN 29), NE & Yorkshire 117 V 155 (DOWN 38) & North West 97 v 114 (DOWN 17)


ALL REGIONS HAD GOOD FALLS



PATIENTS YESTERDAY V TODAY

6623 / 6412 Today.

Down by 211



Last Week the numbers were

7053 / 6961

Down by 92



A week to week FALL of 549 today. It was a week to week fall of 430 yesterday & of 211 the day before.


SO LAST TWO DAYS WERE A PROMISING SURPRISE WITH A BIGGER DROP IN PATIENTS THAN LAST WEEK


Last Wednesday patients were DOWN week to week by 330 (7291 TO 6961 ) - week before UP 340 (6951 - 7291)

Still unexpectedly going in the right direction here. For now.



REGIONALLY London DOWN 31 at 1057, Midlands DOWN 30 at 1201 , NE & Yorks DOWN 58 to 1233 & NW DOWN 11 to 957.

Week to week London (UP 10), Midlands (DOWN 86), NE & Yorkshire (DOWN 109), East (DOWN 140), South East (DOWN 118) , South West (DOWN 51) and North West (DOWN 105) over the last 7 days.

So NW had the a very good fall - dropped below 1000 again AND 100 behind London again after rising above - but better still EVERY region is falling well



VENTILATORS YESTERDAY V TODAY


796/ 792 Today Down 4


Last week the numbers were 865 / 846 DOWN 19


Week to week today ventilators are DOWN by 54,

Last week they were DOWN week to week by 8



REGIONALLY London has 178 (UP 3), Midlands 150 (DOWN 4), NE & Yorkshire 127 (LEVEL)
& North West 112 (DOWN 4)



NORTH WEST UP WEEK TO WEEK BY 6 (106 - 112)

Others week to week : East DOWN 19 (100-81), London DOWN 3 (181 -178). Midlands DOWN 24 (174 - 150), NE & Yorkshire DOWN 2 (129 - 127), South East DOWN 15 (94 - 79) & South West UP 3 on 65.
 
ENGLAND REGIONS BY CASE NUMBERS TODAY

CASES - Up/Down on day V Last Week



SOUTH EAST 5016 - DOWN 587 V 5473 - DOWN 456 wk to wk - BIG DROP FROM 2000 OVER TO 456 UNDER IN THE PAST WEEK - THE BIG FALLS NOW ARE IN THE SOUTH.

And as ZOE predicted the North West is paying the price for the south regions tumbling and them not.

NORTH WEST 4400 - UP 549 V 4297 - UP 103 wk to wk - The gap has closed alarmingly fast here.As England falls the NW rises again.

SOUTH WEST 3875 - UP 12 V 4217 - DOWN 342 week to week and now well below NW

EAST 3293 - DOWN 324 V 3292 - UP 1 wk to wk

YORKSHIRE 3208- UP 208 V 2815 - UP 393 wk to wk

WEST MIDLANDS 3086 - DOWN 2 V 3233 - DOWN 147 week to week

LONDON 2993 - DOWN 149 V 3471 - UP 348 wk to wk.

EAST MIDLANDS 2698 - DOWN 161 V 2977 - DOWN 279 Wk to wk

NORTH EAST 1501 - UP 370 V 1586 - DOWN 85 week to week



Essentially today the north goes up as the south falls a lot
 
Bluehammer here were the cases and Pop Scores today in your two Kent areas so you can track them daily and compare them with GM to follow in later posts.

MEDWAY 156 cases today (same as yesterday) - Total cases 42,337 - Pop Score 15,167 (Up 56 today) & Weekly Pop Score 379 (UP 11)

DARTFORD 31 cases today (DOWN from 62 yesterday) - Total cases 18,433 - Pop Score 16,162 (Up 27 today) & Weekly Pop Score 377 (UP 6)
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS WEEKLY CASES


Oldham 633, Bury 706, Tameside 869, Trafford 896, Salford 897, Rochdale 928, Stockport 943, Bolton 970, Wigan 1350, Manchester 1617



Oldham still best of the pack and Manchester now 267 ahead of Wigan. Stockport now ahead of Bolton.But the top 8 just 300 or so between them and 101 between 3rd and 8th so much have the numbers closed together.
 
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GREATER MANCHESTER TODAY CASES V POP SCORES

BOROUGH - CURRENT WEEKLY POP SCORE - Up/Down on day (LOWEST SCORE BEST) V POP SCORE Last Week & IF RISING THEN BY // CASES (c) TODAY v CASES LAST WEEK // POP SCORE RISE TODAY - UP TO - TOTAL POP SCORE OVER THE WHOLE PANDEMIC (LOWEST IS STILL BEST)


OLDHAM 266 (UP 11) V 246 RISING 20 // 113 c v 84 c // POP SCORE 47 - UP TO 18,302 - Highest in GM over all of the pandemic

MANCHESTER 291 (DOWN 6) V 261 RISING 30 // 268 c v 298 c // POP SCORE 48 - UP TO 17,975

STOCKPORT 316 (DOWN 2) V 320 // 147 c v 138 c // POP SCORE 50 - UP TO 16,661 - Lowest Pop Score in GM over all of the pandemic

BOLTON 336 (DOWN 4) V 284 RISING 52 // 133 c v 144 c // POP SCORE 46 *- UP TO 17,319 * Lowest GM Pop Score today

SALFORD 342 (UP 12) V 272 RISING 70 // 160 c v 138 c // POP SCORE 61 - UP TO 18,133

BURY 370 (DOWN 1) V 343 RISING 27 // 111 c v 112 c // POP SCORE 58 - UP TO 17,561

TRAFFORD 377 (DOWN 18) V 351 RISING 26 // 130 c v 172 c // POP SCORE 54- UP TO 17,099

TAMESIDE 382 (DOWN 19) V 378 RISING 4 // 109 c v 152 c // POP SCORE 48 - UP TO 17,770

WIGAN 408 (UP 5) V 332 RISING 76 // 198 c v 180 c // POP SCORE 59 - UP TO 17, 872

ROCHDALE 414 (UP 33) V 355 RISING 59 // 182 c v 106 c // POP SCORE 81* - UP TO 18,268 * Highest GM Pop Score today


ONLY STOCKPORT NOW STILL FALLING WEEK TO WEEK - AND ONLY JUST (BY 4)!

AS NUMBERS REVERSE OLDHAM FLIPPED TO RISING TODAY AND STOCKPORT MAY WELL TOMORROW IF THEY GET SIMILAR NUMBERS TO TODAY MAKING ALL OF GM GOING UPWARD. NOT WHAT WE WANT TO SEE.


Tameside had a good day and edged back down into the 300s. But Rochdale on a run of bad days had one of its worst ever and climbed 33 Pop Score points in one go to top the tree above a still high scoring Wigan.

Bolton had a better day and fell but still 20 behind Stockport now - being caught up in the East Lancashire triangle of high cases with Burnley and Blackburn and neghbour Bury.

Trafford lost another 4 Pop Score points to Stockport today despite falling taking the seemingly unassailable lead for the lowest Pop Score in GM across the entire pandemic to 438.

Oldham had the best day again in the numbers (though Bolton just pipped it for lowest daily Pop Score) and Rochdale with a Pop Score of 81 - highest in GM for some while and still struggling - as a result lost a whopping 34 Pop Score points in one go to its nerighbour.

So Oldham's lead for the highest Pop score across the pandemic care of its very low numbers was halved in a day to just 34. At those rates Rochdale will take over as highest in GM any day now. A similar day tomorrow and it will be then. But by weekend looks certain.

Manchester did enough today to stay out of joining the 18 K club with Oldham, Rochdale and Salford but will follow tomorrow bar a very low score. Wigan is probably just 3 or 4 days away from becoming the fifth borough into 18 K at current rates.

Stockport is all alone in the 16K club.At current numbers until about this time next week.
 
UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS

No increases in patients or ventilators and several falls in all 4 nations first time in a while.


PATIENTS:-


ENGLAND 6412, N IRELAND 427, SCOTLAND 774, WALES 621 UK TOTAL 8234 (DOWN 218)

Everyone down today bar Wales who have not updated since Friday



VENTILATORS:-


ENGLAND 792, N IRELAND 26, SCOTLAND 57 WALES 59 UK TOTAL 934 ( DOWN 7)

Only England & WAles fell and Scotland & Northern Ireland level


Both numbers fall today again
 
WALES DATA

NOT A GOOD DAY HERE

20 deaths - was 12 last week

2576 cases - was 2134 last week

9.1% positivity - was 10.5% - a lot more testng it seems here

621 patients - a week ago - not updated since - not clear why

59 ventilated - was 67 last week
 
SCOTLAND DATA

BETTER THAN IT LOOKS ON CASES - NOT ON HOSPITAL NUMBERS SADLY


29 deaths - was 26 last week - These seem to be rising here now and Wales

3235 cases - was 3340 last week - BUT this includes around 700 cases from the past 4 weeks that come from private lab tests not previously reported but from today will be included daily - so around 26 a day seems the average. So the 'true' number today would have been around 2570 probably

7.5% positivity was 8.2% last week. But really possibly a little lower today.

786 patients - UP 12 on yesterday - was 768 last week

63 ventilated icu - up 6 on yesterday - was 60 last week

THE HOSPITAL NUMBERS HAVE TAKEN A REVERSE STEP TODAY AS YOU CAN SEE IF ENGLAND DOES THE SAME THEN THE GOOD FALLS THERE MIGHT BE SHORT LIVED AS THEY WERE IN SCOTLAND
 
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NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

6 deaths - was 6 last week

1681 cases - was 1462 last week

WEEKLY CASES 11,122 - WAS 10,889 YESTERDAY & 9030 LAST WEEK - SHOOTING UP DAILY NOW SADLY

32 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 33 YESTERDAY & 38 LAST WEEK - GOOD NEWS HERE STILL

419 patients - down 8 on yesterday - was 387 last week

22 ventilated - was 26 yesterday & 30 last week - THESE ARE LOOKING MORE HOPEFUL TOO


NB:- The care home falls have seen the age range of the most vulnerable age group (over 80) fall steadily over the past 2 weeks from over 210 by about 40 even as weekly cases have risen by about 3000 a week. This is one reason deaths are not escalating with cases . Hopefully the boosters are why.
 
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England hospital deaths data late today - so I thought I woud give you some weekly Pop Scores for the rest of the UK to help you match against the daily GM ones I post (and the Kent ones I post on request).

Pop Scores are daily cases reported per population of the area reporting them so as to give a number that offers comparison between a big inner city and a small rural region. The POP evens out the extra cases you would expect to find in a big city like Manchester versus in a small town such as Bury. In a way Manchester getting 300 cases - say - and Bury about 150 on the same day would not do. As on that basis the Pop Score would easily be higher in Bury than in Manchester - hence why knowing the number helps see who is doing well or not well.

I should emphasise the GM ones are up to date as in yesterday. The Gov UK ones are six days old as they use a five day period to accommodate lab test returns all coming in - so they are really how things were last week.


GM recap:- Best is Oldham on 266, only Manchester on 291 is also under 300 and Wigan on 408 and Rochdale is the highest on 414

In the Gov UK data Cheshire East is 394 and Barrow is running highest in the NW on 567.

The East Lancashire area is high too - Ribble Valley on 477 and Rossendale (between Bury and Rochdale is on 451.

In Scotland Clackmannanshire on 622 is the highest.

But Wales has higher areas - Vale of Glamorgan 664 and Gwynedd on 654.

Selby on 617 in East Yorkshire is the highest in the north. Hull and surrounds has long had issues.

In the Midlands Charnwood on 623 is the most. But there are several places near it suchas aound Leicester.

Mid Sussex on 698 is higher than anywhere in London or the South East.

But the South West is a sea of heavily scoring areas - pretty well all of the region is around North Devon on 662 but the hghest in the UK on this list is Torridge in Devon (which used to have one of the lowest in the UK btw - not I suspect a coincidence) is on 808.

Double everywhere in GM.

But recall these are from last week really not today like the GM ones. The South West has fallen a lot since then in cases so I doubt anywhere is near 808 right now.
 
199 all settings deaths - UP from 194 last week

144 in England - though - DOWN from 151 last week.

46, 807 cases - UP 8544 on yesterday - biggest jump in some time.

Also up 4399 on last week.

Pretty bad day for England.

England only cases UP on 39,315 - a rise of 8677 on yesterday.

Also up 3843 on last Thursday.

Looks like the honeymoon is well and truly over.
 
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NORTH WEST AND GREATER MANCHESTER SUMMARY

Both GM and North West actually did surprisingly well today - certainly better than some England regions. In fact despite the huge England cases rise day to day and week to week North West and Greater Manchester both FELL week to week. And GM was up by all of 4 day to day.

NW on 4239 - down on day 161.

GM is on 1555 - which is up by 4 - obviously not good to rise when the region falls but 4 up instead of expected 55 or so down is not a big deal.

Week to week North West also falls by 142 from 4381 and Greater Manchester falls by 42 of that 142 from 1597 - which is not far off the expected split.


Bolton and Bury were UP day to day but everyone else fell. However, nobody was below 100 today.

The best score today was in Stockport - down 37 week to week on 128.

Trafford was also down by 35 week to week on 125. But still lost 10 Pop Score points to Stockport who had the joint lowest Pop Score of the day in GM. On 43.

Manchester shared that low Pop Score with Stockport - down week to week by 13 on 239.

The other weekly fallers were Bolton down 12 but high on 175 and Salford down just 3 to143.

And Rochdale had 126 - exactly the same as last week.

The rest were all up week to week

Bury the most - up by 42 on 144.

The other two just by a small number

Wigan up weekly by 7 on 220 - again only behind Manchester.

And rather surprisingly Oldham - who were up just 4 week to week on 106 which was the lowest total today but not low enpugh to give it a lower Pop Score (45) than Manchester and Stockport.

GIVEN TODAYS NUMBERS ACROSS ENGLAND THIS IS A SURPRISINGLY GOOD DAY IN THE COUNTY
 
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