COVID Data Thread

GREATER MANCHESTER TODAY CASES V POP SCORES

BOROUGH - CURRENT WEEKLY POP SCORE - Up/Down on day (LOWEST SCORE BEST) V POP SCORE Last Week & IF RISING THEN BY // CASES (c) TODAY v CASES LAST WEEK // POP SCORE RISE TODAY - UP TO - TOTAL POP SCORE OVER THE WHOLE PANDEMIC (LOWEST IS STILL BEST)


OLDHAM 288 (UP 19) V 253 RISING 35 // 140 c v 96 c // POP SCORE 59 - UP TO 18,442 -

MANCHESTER 303 (UP 4) V 276 RISING 27 // 310 c v 294 c // POP SCORE 56- UP TO 18,119

STOCKPORT 310 (DOWN 5) V 321 // 162 c v 178 c // POP SCORE 55 - UP TO 16,808 - Lowest Pop Score in GM over all of the pandemic

BOLTON 360 (UP 13) V 317 RISING 43 // 148 c v 110 c // POP SCORE 51* - UP TO 17,487 * Lowest GM Pop Score today

SALFORD 384 (UP 36) V 287 RISING 97 // 218 c v 121 c // POP SCORE 82 *- UP TO 18,318 * Highest GM Pop Score today

TRAFFORD 386 (UP 14) V 377 RISING 9 // 164 c v 130 c // POP SCORE 69 - UP TO 17,283

TAMESIDE 392 (DOWN 7) V 390 RISING 2 // 141 c v 156 c // POP SCORE 62 - UP TO 17,960

WIGAN 399 (UP 4) V 377 RISING 22 // 188 c v 173 c // POP SCORE 57 - UP TO 18,045

BURY 408 (UP 7) V 325 RISING 83 // 101 c v 89 c // POP SCORE 53 - UP TO 17,741

ROCHDALE 428 (UP 7) V 371 RISING 57 // 166 c v 151 c // POP SCORE 74 - UP TO 18,459 * Highest in GM over all of the pandemic


STOCKPORT NOW THE ONLY ONE FALLING WEEK TO WEEK. ALL THE REST STILL GOING UP WITH SALFORD NOW DOING SO BY THE MOST

Salford UP 36 on the day was far and away the worst performer today. As Zoe numbers foreshadowed.

Trafford lost another 14 Pop Score points to Stockport today so the seemingly unassailable lead for the lowest Pop Score in GM across the entire pandemic keeps going one way and rose to 475

At the other extreme of the Pop Score across the entire pandemic battle Oldham took another 15 off Rochdale so Rochdale now leads Greater Manchester by 17.

Wigan's became the fifth borough to enter the 18K club today.

Tameside is next in line and most probably will be number six tomorrow. Bury around a week away from becoming number seven.

Stockport is all alone in the 16K club for another few days.
 
WALES DATA

THIS IS FRIDAY ONLY - SAT & SUN COMBINED TOMORROW - SAME AS EVERY WEEKEND

7 deaths - was 6 last week

2408 cases - was 2659 last week

10.0% positivity - was 10.7% last week

547 patients (Friday) - was 616 last week

59 ventilated (Friday) - was 62 last week
 
TODAYS ZOE GRAPH CLEARLY SHOWING THE FALL IN ONGOING CASES HAS FLATTENED QUICKLY AND IS ABOUT TO GO BACK UPWARDS (FAR RIGHT)

FULL DETAILS ON THE NUMBERS A BIT LATER. BUT NORTH WEST IS STILL COMING OUT OF THIS BETTER THAN MOST REGIONS AND FELL TODAY AND IS NOW 10th OUT OF 12 UK REGIONS WITH A FAST RISING LONDON NOW THE ONLY ENGLAND REGION LOWER THAN NW AND TODAY ONLY JUST


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61 all settings deaths. Down 2 on last week.

47 in England - was 51 last Sunday

40,004 cases - Down from 40, 941 yesterday (which had no Wales numbers as these were added today)

Up by 3487 from 36, 517 last week.

England only

33,513 today - down 2826 on yesterday - was 29,404 last week - UP 4109 week to week

So largest increase in England as Scotland and Wales both fell and N Ireland only up 29
 
SCOTLAND DATA

0 deaths - was 1 last week

2677 cases - was 3077 cases last week

9.7% positivity - waa 10.3% last week

777 patients - UP 10 on yesterday - was 766 last week - Back up sadly

58 ventilated icu - down 3 on yesterday - was 56 last week
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

7 deaths - was 5 last week

1406 cases - was 1377 last week

ALL WE GET AT WEEKENDS
 
NORTH WEST AND GREATER MANCHESTER SUMMARY


Odd day.Not sure how to call the numbers today.

Zoe seems to be predicting things very well. But Stockport did not do as well as it was predicted today.

Not the worst day but a bad one here and instead of being miles ahead of the rest as Zoe has it today it rose week to week only just behind Manchester and Salford.

These are three of the biggest boroughs so rises look disproprtionate and the actual Pop Scores for them were not huge but not low either. Stockport had unexpectedly VERY low numbers last weekend and on 131 it was actually down 31 day to day today. Just well up from last Sunday's very low 91. Tomorrow may be the same as that was just 80 last Monday - numbers that looked oddly low then - and doubled to 160 the very next day. So I suspect it is weekend testing issues more than anything else. But we will see where we are come Tuesday.

Numbers in NW actually FELL a huge number today. 881 to 3231.

881 is a large chunk of the 2826 the 9 England regions fell today.

And GM fell 474 of that to 1264. This is better than expectation so very good but results from every single borough being down from yesterday.

Week to week that NW number is also down by 125. GM in contrast - though - falls by just 4 of that 125 from 1268. This is because of the week to week rises in Bolton (27),Manchester (44), Rochdale (10), Salford (41), Stockport (40), Tameside (6) & Trafford (2).

By far the best performer was Wigan today down 37 on the day and a whopping 73 week to week on just 151.

South East is UP again today and actually now more than 4200 ahead of North West cases total today on 7463.

For days now South East has been the main reason England case numbers are up over 3 K week to week. SE alone accounts for 2K of the weekly rise today as the NW falls.
 
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ZOE APP NUMBERS

TODAY


Predicted cases

UP from 69,659 TO 71,548 - Another big daily rise of 189 up from 1394 yesterday and 1665 the day before. Clearly going back upwards now.

Ongoing symptomatic cases ARE still falling but slowing rapidly towards a stall and a rise is very close now I fear. Inevitable a week or so into daily cases rising.

It did fall from 979,538 TO 978,245 - a fall of just 1293 after a fall of 2501 yesterday and 3952 the day before.

The size of the daily fall is obviously decreasing each day and looks set to reverse into a week to week rise in the next couple of days.



NW though had a good day on Zoe FELL into 10th place - the lowest of the 10 regions in the upper watch zone.

NORTH WEST DOWN FROM 890 / 1186 TO 883 / 1182 - A TINY FALL BUT MANY WERE UP TODAY

THERE ARE NOW ONLY SCOTLAND AND LONDON IN THE MIDDLE WATCH ZONE AGAIN!

The 10 regions in the upper watch zone are:- in order

Wales - TOP - UP (1168 / 1619 TO 1219 / 1685), Northern Ireland 2nd but UP also from 720 /1954 TO 752 / 2034, , East Midlands up to 3rd and UP a lot today from 981 / 1331 TO 1037 / 1400 , North East falls to 4th also DOWN a tad from 922 / 1454 TO 920 / 1457. South East stays in 5th but UP from 997 / 1178 TO 1013 / 1197 , East stays 6th and UP too from 960 / 1203 TO 977 / 1225, Yorkshire shoot UP big again in 7th from 882 / 1215 TO 932 / 1278, West MIdlands is up into 8th UP from 861 / 1184 TO 889 / 1220 , -and in 9th is South West UP a tiny bit FROM 915 / 1149 TO 916 / 1152

North West is just behind them all on 883 / 1182 - not quite enough to fall into the lower wat ch zone again.


AND left in the middle watch zone:


London rise into 11th UP from 778 / 990 TO 838 / 1057 - biggest jump of the day. And closest to North West here in a while.


And now the best in UK is

Scotland (lowest in UK) DOWN a touch ON 754 / 1076
 
ZOE APP NORTH WEST & GM NUMBERS

TODAY


Wirral is falling fast happily - down another 2000 to 21,342 after weeks in the 30Ks.

Wyre has flattened in the 19Ks. Neighbouring Fylde though is still low and not worth reporting as it is below all but Stockport in GM.

St Helens which has been in trouble for weeks has been dropping fast and is now in the 8Ks Warrington too over the past week falls again into 10K.

Much the same in Cheshire - some big drops.

Cheshire West is up slightly on 8323.

Cheshire East in past 3 weeks has continually fallen too from 29K and today down FROM 12, 185 TO 11,498 - so Cheshire has flattened off after weeks of big falls.




Here is the Greater Manchester 'Zoe league table':

Note THERE IS A NEW LEADER - as sadly some boroughs are starting to go back up. And only one has stayed in the lower sub 10K watch zone.


TOP TO BOTTOM


1: STOCKPORT 6852 - down 427 today but lowest here in a very long time.

NOW THE ONLY ONE IN THE LOWER WATCH ZONE AS THE OTHER TWO HAVE STARTED TO ROCKET UP AGAIN AND I WOULD NOT BET AGAINST STOCKPORT FOLLOWING AFTER TODAY'S NUMBERS BUT FOR NOW IT IS HALF THE NEXT LOWEST BOROUGH WHICH SEEMED HIGHLY UNLIKELY 2 OR 3 WEEKS BACK WHEN TOP OF THE PILE.


2: SALFORD 12,643 - UP 3000 and way out of the lower watch zone. That did not last long!

3: TAMESIDE 12,707 - down over 1000 and been falling most of the week

4: OLDHAM 13,411- bit of a jump up again by 2300 in one day - same as yesterday's rise

5: WIGAN 18,262 - also down again today by 1400

6: BURY 18,328 - down just 41 slowing the fall but going the right way.

7: TRAFFORD 19,707 - up 1300 and not managed to get much lower after its big falls

8: ROCHDALE 24.239 - DOWN just 47 - but at least flat after big rises

9: BOLTON 25,774 - DOWN 800 after some rough numbers lately - a hopeful sign but still high

10: MANCHESTER 28,815 - UP 260 and still top of the tree but flattening off it seems - hopefully!



MOST OF THESE NUMBERS MATCH THE ZOE PREDICTION WITH THE GOV UK DATA TODAY OTHER THAN THE STOCKPORT ONE PERHAPS.
 
Bluehammer here were the cases and Pop Scores today in your two Kent areas so you can track them daily and compare them with GM to follow in later posts.

MEDWAY 205 cases today (UP from 183 yesterday) - Total cases 43,084 - Pop Score 15,434 (Up 73 today) & Weekly Pop Score 418 (UP 11)

DARTFORD 82 cases today (UP from 37 yesterday) - Total cases 18,688 - Pop Score 16,386 (Up 72 today) & Weekly Pop Score 379 (DOWN 9)
 
ENGLAND REGIONS BY CASE NUMBERS TODAY

CASES - Up/Down on day V Last Week



SOUTH EAST 7463 - UP 185 V 5570 - UP 1893 wk to wk - another big weekly rise and miles above the rest

LONDON 4536 - UP 305 V 3652 - UP 884 wk to wk. Rising here but 3000 behind its neighbour

SOUTH WEST 4139 - DOWN 61 V 3623- UP 516 week to week

EAST 3958 - DOWN 331 V 3484 - UP 474 wk to wk

WEST MIDLANDS 3234 - DOWN 265 V 2441 - UP 793 week to week

NORTH WEST 3231 - DOWN 881 V 3356 - DOWN 125 wk to wk - Down week to week unlike those above

EAST MIDLANDS 2517 - DOWN 409 V 2519 - DOWN 2 Wk to wk - and here, just

YORKSHIRE 2283 - DOWN 799 V 2715 - DOWN 432 wk to wk - But Yorkshire did even better than NW

NORTH EAST 1255 - DOWN 297 V 1504 - DOWN 249 week to week


THE SOUTH AS A WHOLE GOING UP AND THE NORTH GOING DOWN AND THE MIDLANDS 50/50%
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS WEEKLY CASES


Oldham 676, Bury 753, Tameside 896, Trafford 919, Stockport 951, Rochdale 967, Bolton 1015, Salford 1051, Wigan 1247, Manchester 1725



Oldham still best. Manchester now 478 ahead of Wigan after it rose and Wigan fell big. Stockport back up over Trafford.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER TODAY CASES V POP SCORES

BOROUGH - CURRENT WEEKLY POP SCORE - Up/Down on day (LOWEST SCORE BEST) V POP SCORE Last Week & IF RISING THEN BY // CASES (c) TODAY v CASES LAST WEEK // POP SCORE RISE TODAY - UP TO - TOTAL POP SCORE OVER THE WHOLE PANDEMIC (LOWEST IS STILL BEST)


OLDHAM 284 (DOWN 4) V 260 RISING 24 // 79 c v 86 c // POP SCORE 33 * - UP TO 18,475 -* Lowest GM Pop Score today

MANCHESTER 310 (UP 7) V 289 RISING 21 // 242 c v 198 c // POP SCORE 43- UP TO 18,162

STOCKPORT 324 (UP 14) V 320 RISING 4 // 131 c v 91 c // POP SCORE 45 - UP TO 16,853 - Lowest Pop Score in GM over all of the pandemic

BOLTON 352 (DOWN 8 ) V 324 RISING 28 // 129 c v 152 c // POP SCORE 45 - UP TO 17,532

WIGAN 377 (DOWN 22) V 399 // 151 c v 224 c // POP SCORE 45 - UP TO 18,090

TRAFFORD 386 (LEVEL) V 380 RISING 6 // 104 c v 102 c // POP SCORE 43 - UP TO 17,326

TAMESIDE 394 (UP 2) V 389 RISING 5 // 101 c v 95 c // POP SCORE 44 - UP TO 18,004

BURY 395 (DOWN 13) V 338 RISING 57 // 91 c v 115 c // POP SCORE 48 - UP TO 17,789

SALFORD 400 (UP 16) V 291 RISING 109 // 136 c v 95 c // POP SCORE 52 UP TO 18,370

ROCHDALE 433 (UP 5) V 379 RISING 54 // 120 c v 110 c // POP SCORE 54 - UP TO 18,513 * Highest GM Pop Score today and Highest in GM over all of the pandemic


STOCKPORT NOW RISING AFTER A BAD DAY AND WIGAN's REALLY GOOD DAY TURNED IT INTO THE ONLY ONE DOWN WEEK TO WEEK AND FALLING.

SALFORD RISING THE MOST - OVER 100 WEEK TO WEEK


Notice how Oldham apart all the boroughs were bunched with Pop scores between 43 and 54 and 6 of them between 43 and 45 - a sign the boroughs are much of a muchness now not polarised.

Trafford actually GAINED 2 Pop Score points back on Stockport today for first time in a while so the seemingly unassailable lead for the lowest Pop Score in GM across the entire pandemic is down to just 473

At the other extreme of the Pop Score across the entire pandemic battle Oldham was best in GM and Rochdale the worst so took another 21 off Rochdale. Rochdale now leads Greater Manchester by 38.

Rochdale is heading to be the first into the 19K club by the first few days of December.

Tameside became the sixth borough to enter the 18K club today.

Stockport is all alone in the 16K club for another two or three days.
 
WALES DATA

SOME SIGNS OF HOPE HERE

NB: THIS IS FOR TWO DAYS - SATURDAY & SUNDAY - AS USUAL ON MONDAYS

8 deaths - was 13 last week

4489 - was 4520 last week

10.1% positivity - was 11.4% last week
 
ZOE APP NUMBERS

TODAY

SADLY AS HAS BEEN COMING FOR DAYS ALL THE NUMBERS ARE NOW GOING BACK UPWARD


Predicted cases

UP from 71,548 TO 73.427 - Another big daily rise of 1879 after rises of 1891 yesterday and 1394 & 1665 the days before. Clearly going back upwards quite fast again.



AND

Ongoing symptomatic cases ARE rising now too after slowing towards a stall and now a rise. Inevitable a week or so into daily cases rising as ongoing cases will lag this.

UP on 985,390 FROM 983,798 - a RISE of 1592 after falls of 590 and 1293 the days before.

Week to week the fall is 31, 477 - but this too will soon reverse as it has dropped in 10 days steadily from a gap of over 131,000.



NW though had another OK day on Zoe FELL slightly again staying in 10th place - the lowest of the 10 regions in the upper watch zone.

NORTH WEST DOWN FROM 883 / 1182 TO 878 / 1178 - EVEN SMALLER FALL THAN NW HAD YESTERDAY BUT OK CONSIDERING MANY WERE UP TODAY AND THE UK DATA IS CLEARLY GOING UP ON ALL MEASURES

ONLY SCOTLAND AND LONDON ARE IN THE MIDDLE WATCH ZONE AGAIN

The 10 regions in the upper watch zone are:- in order

Wales - TOP -DOWN (1219 / 1685 TO 1205 / 1675), Northern Ireland 2nd but DOWN ( 752 / 2034 TO 716 / 1985), East Midlands up to 3rd and UP (1037 / 1400 TO 1053 / 1423), East rises to 4th and UP today the most (977 / 1225 TO 1051 / 1310), North East falls is 5th also DOWN a tad (920 / 1457 TO 906 / 1446). South East in 6th but UP big (1013 / 1197 TO 1063 / 1253) , West MIdlands is up into 7th UP BY FAR THE MOST TODAY (889 / 1220 TO 981 / 1331) ,Yorkshire up too but by less so falls again into 8th UP (932 / 1278 TO 966 / 1322) and in 9th is South West also rising a lot UP (916 / 1152 TO 975 / 1221)

North West in 10th is behind them all and unlike most of the ones above is DOWN on 878 / 1178 - closer to the lower zone than the rest ahead in the higher watch zone


AND the two left in the middle watch zone are:


London in 11th and all but flat FROM 838 / 1057 TO 838 / 1061 - closest to North West here in a while.


And the best in UK is

Scotland (lowest in UK) DOWN a touch FROM 754 / 1076 TO 724 / 1039
 
ZOE APP NORTH WEST & GM NUMBERS

TODAY


Wirral is falling fast happily - down another 2000 to 19,302 after weeks in the 30Ks.

Wyre falls again into the 16Ks.

St Helens which has been in trouble for weeks has been dropping fast and is now in the early 8Ks Warrington too over the past week falls again below 10K for first time in ages on 9408.

Much the same in Cheshire

Cheshire West is up slightly on 9153.

Cheshire East has risen slightly FROM 11,498 TO 11,865 - so really Cheshire has flattened off after weeks of big falls.




Here is the Greater Manchester 'Zoe league table':

Note still one borough miles ahead.


TOP TO BOTTOM


1: STOCKPORT 6617 - down 235 today and flattened off but lowest here in a very long time.

NOW THE ONLY ONE IN THE LOWER WATCH ZONE BY QUITE SOME MARGIN AND UNFORTUNATELY THE OTHER TWO WHO WERE WITH IT DOWN HERE A FEW DAYS AGO ARE RISING QUITE A LOT DAY TO DAY - WILL STOCKPORT FOLLOW?

2: TAMESIDE 14,140 - UP 1400 and more than double Stockport

3: SALFORD 14,824 - UP 2200 and climbing fast out of the lower watch zone.

4: OLDHAM 15,443- UP another 2000 in one day - much as yesterday's rise - like Salford leaping up from where Stockport is now and they were a few days ago - not encouraging for Stockport in coming days.

5: WIGAN 16,735 - DOWN here and had very low real numbers yesterday down today by 1500

6: BURY 18,807 - UP 500.

7: TRAFFORD 20,709 - UP 1000 and been flattish around here for a couple of weeks

8: ROCHDALE 24.769 - UP 400 - but at least flat after big rises

9: BOLTON 24,570 - DOWN 1200 after some rough numbers lately and starting to fall in real data a bit too

10: MANCHESTER 28,705 - DOWN - only by 110 but the first non increase in two weeks during which the city has doubled and still top of the tree but now reversing - hopefully!
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS - OVER THE WEEKEND

BTW No Catch Up on the Missing Thursday data so no idea if this is being added in or we just have to assume around 100 has gone unreported from then. Not likely to show up now. The data seemingly was all just lost! At least we can truly now say we have a world beating Covid data set up as I doubt any other country manages to do data glitches as well as we do.

ANYHOW THIS DATA IS UNAFFECTED - THOUGH IT IS UP A BIT AND A LOT OF NW DEATHS OVER THE WEEKEND


SATURDAY:-

130 Deaths With 35 North West:-

Last Week Was 115 with 10 North West & Week before 115 with 27 North West


SUNDAY:-

23 Deaths With 5 North West:-

Last Week Was 16 with 0 North West & Week before 14 with 0 North West


TODAY:-

20 Deaths With 1 North West:-

Last Week Was 19 with 6 North West & Week before 24 with 8 North West


TOTAL OVER WEEKEND 173 WAS 150 LAST WEEK & 153 THE WEEK BEFORE

NORTH WEST ONLY 41 WAS 16 LAST WEEK & 35 WEEK BEFORE
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS MORE DETAIL

Over the weekend by Age:

20 - 39 (1), 40 - 59 (18), 60 - 79 (81), 80 PLUS (73) - Still lower over 80 than 60 - 79

By Regions:

East 28, London 10, Midlands 45, NE & Yorkshire 31, North West 41, South East 10, South West 8

Most by trust:- 10 Leeds & 8 Nottingham were the most over the weekend

North West Trusts:-

9 each in Blackpool & St Helens , 3 each in East Lancashire, Liverpool & Pennine Acute , 2 each in Morecambe, Salford, Stockport & Tameside AND 1 each in Chester, North Lancashire. Manchester, Mid Cheshire, Southport & Wigan


DEATHS HAVE BEEN UP A BIT OVER RECENT DAYS AND NUMBERS ARE SLIGHTLY OVER LAST WEEK SO FAR
 
SCOTLAND DATA THREAD

NB: THERE HAS BEEN ANOTHER DATA ISSUE HERE TODAY - SO CASES FROM ONE LAB ARE MISSING.

0 deaths - was 0 last week

2481 cases - was 2288 last week

11.4% positivity - was 12.3% last week

750 patients - was 777 yesterday & 771 last week

59 ventilated icu - was 58 yesterday & 57 last week
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

3 deaths - was 5 last week

1469 cases - was 1457 last week

11,930 WEEKLY CASES - WAS 11,302 ON FRIDAY & 10,490 LAST WEEK - HITS OF FLATTENING OFF HERE

BUT 35 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - UP 2 ON FRIDAY - WAS 40 LAST WEEK

378 patients - was 410 Friday - was 418 last week

26 ventilated - UP 5 on Friday - was 28 last week

HOSPITAL DATA LOOKING MORE HOPEFUL THOUGH THE SLIGHT RISE IN CARE HOME NUMBERS NEEDS WATCHING


THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE AGE RANGE SPLIT OF THE WEEKLY CASES IS STILL GOING THE RIGHT WAY DESPITE NEARLY 12K CASES NOW.


HERE ARE THE AGE RANGES BY NUMBER:

0 - 19 = 4982

20 - 39 = 2769

40 - 59 = 3112

60 - 79 = 905

80 PLUS = 160


The last two age ranges are FALLING week to week and the driving force of this wave is clearly obvious.

FAR more in the younger and less vulnerable (and less vaccinated) ages are testing positive than those most vulnerable (and mostly triple jabbed) - why we see the otherwise strange anomaly of rising cases leading to decreasing hospital numbers and deaths.
 
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