Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Bluewonder said:
But these projections are used to inform policy. That's why people have a problem with them.
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Precisely. Any rational person with an iota of common sense can see that the projection graphs on page 5 of the report were widely off.

It would be interesting and certainly more helpful to get the people who wrote the report take on it, now we have the actual data and examine why the modeling was so far out and see how the actual data might help inform and improve future predictions for covid. You would expect this would be happening? Rather than let one or two stubborn fools try and convince us there was nothing wrong with it in the first place, where upon you would end up learning nothing?
 
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grunge said:
Yeah this is the crux of it, Oxygen runs out then all surgery's stop, pretty much all ICU patients die etc, no matter what there age, Baby incubators stop working. and that's just oxygen. adding medication into the mix and things really spiral.
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Kind of depends if oxygen is required.
on the plus side:
- Virtually no change in ICU admissions in SA.
On the down side:
- The average life span in SA is only 64.13 years as opposed to 81.2 in the UK with many more vulnerable.
- No large vaerrified data sets yet.
 
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The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
I agree but closures and lockdown is surely now a known risk? When the only lens people are looking though has covid written on it, balance is the first casualty, is all I’m saying.
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Closures and lockdown are a known and quantifiable risk and are no threat to the system so become an acceptable risk in the face of an unknown risk.

It’s a brutal choice and in the event of the Covid risk becoming manageable, closures and lockdown will become an unacceptable option. To be honest lockdown is no longer viable in my opinion. Vaccinations and mask wearing (especially on public transport etc) should become the default norm going forward.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Kind of depends if oxygen is required.
on the plus side:
- Virtually no change in ICU admissions in SA. On the down side:
- The average life span in SA is only 64.13 years as opposed to 81.2 in the UK with many more vulnerable.
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pretty much Any surgery with a GA has to have oxygen doesn't it? Most ICU patients will be Oxygen dependant, me saying all will die is hyperbole to try to get a point across that if the NHS had failed it would have been horrific.

Edit: Id actually hope that most ICU beds are fitted with CPAP functionality so would keep working providing oxygen.

yeah SA is looking promising but has a lot of data biases. im also thinking they maybe pushing the mild cases story to get off of red lists so im being a bit wary of taking information as gospel.
 
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Bluewonder said:
But these projections are used to inform policy. That's why people have a problem with them.
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Continually crying wolf has long term implications on the public believing what they are being told.
See the slow but continual increase in objections to Covid restrictions.
 
Bazzmand Show said:
After 20 ish months of the pandemic I've just tested positive. Have felt rough for a couple of days...and got a test earlier.

Anyone got any tips, I am double jabbed...
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I was double jabbed when I caught it, no cough. Tired and a headache, took plenty of paracetemol and Water.

Few laps of the garden as well for fresh air

I got a heat pad after a few days my neck and back were in absolute bits
 
grunge said:
pretty much Any surgery with a GA has to have oxygen doesn't it? Most ICU patients will be Oxygen dependant, me saying all will die is hyperbole to try to get a point across that if the NHS had failed it would have been horrific.

Edit: Id actually hope that most ICU beds are fitted with CPAP functionality so would keep working providing oxygen.

yeah SA is looking promising but has a lot of data biases. im also thinking they maybe pushing the mild cases story to get off of red lists so im being a bit wary of taking information as gospel.
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Totally agree. The data is looking promising, but it is not there yet.
 
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Del_Bosque said:
I was double jabbed when I caught it, no cough. Tired and a headache, took plenty of paracetemol and Water.

Few laps of the garden as well for fresh air

I got a heat pad after a few days my neck and back were in absolute bits
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The more exposure to the virus, it's descendents and vaccines the less severe the infection seems to be.
I was on the verge of being hospitalised the first time round.
I was ill after the 1st jab for 3 or 4 days
The 2nd jab left me with a sore arm for a day
I caught Delta in July and just had a sniffle.
No effects at all after the 3rd jab.
 
My son's class have been told they had to go home this morning as one child has tested positive. Can't go back in for ten days which means he has to go back for day before breaking up for Christmas.

Had to go and get a test at a walk in centre this afternoon and him and his mum have had to as well. We all found out tomorrow
 
1576 new Omicron cases added today. 1534 in England. Total now identified in UK = 4713. Total in England 4487.

Scotland added 27 today total 186.

Wales added 15 today total 30.

10 of these total cases in hospital aged between 18 and 85. Spread across the UK. One of whom has died.Most had had two doses of the vaccine. Source UK chief medical adviser Dr Susan Hopkins.
 
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38 all settings deaths - was 41 last Monday


England only 26 - was 34 last Monday



54,661 cases - up 7807 on yesterday* - was 51,459 last Monday - up 3202

* Double day numbers (Sat & Sun) for Wales today is a factor as always on Mondays.

England only 44,931 - up 4218 on yesterday - was 41,525 last Monday - up 3406
 
Bazzmand Show said:
After 20 ish months of the pandemic I've just tested positive. Have felt rough for a couple of days...and got a test earlier.

Anyone got any tips, I am double jabbed...
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Plenty of water and paracetamol, had it a couple of months ago and very fortunate , also double jabbed , only symptom was a slight cough .
 
Healdplace said:
1576 new Omicron cases added today. 1534 in England. Total now identified in UK = 4713. Total in England 4487.

Scotland added 27 today total 186.

Wales added 15 today total 30.

10 of these total cases in hospital aged between 18 and 85. Spread across the UK. One of whom has died.Most had had two doses of the vaccine. Source UK chief medical adviser Dr Susan Hopkins.
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The doubling time of the variant since first identified in the UK has been consistently just 40 hours.

This is quite astonishingly fast. Every day the data is reported, I expect it to flatten off. Every day it continues.

FGf2_TUXIAACvfe.png

I would still expect this to flatten as people become more cautious.

Still too early to say anything much on severity, I think.

Source:https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfColinDavis
 
Healdplace said:
38 all settings deaths - was 41 last Monday


England only 26 - was 34 last Monday



54,661 cases - up 7807 on yesterday* - was 51,459 last Monday - up 3202

* Double day numbers (Sat & Sun) for Wales today is a factor as always on Mondays.

England only 44,931 - up 4218 on yesterday - was 41,525 last Monday - up 3406
Click to expand...

Good to see these not taking off yet. The week on week rise being so small suggests people's behaviour is having an effect on the delta numbers perhaps?
 
BlueAnorak said:
Totally agree. The data is looking promising, but it is not there yet.
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Hmm, Looks like Excess deaths are spiking in SA that do not match the Hospitalisations numbers being reported. Its the latest Data they have released. only 2 data points to go on so nothing concrete.

www.bloomberg.com

Omicron Wave Sees South Africa’s Weekly Excess Deaths Almost Double

www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com

Week ending

21st Nov = 1091 Excess deaths.
28th Nov = 2076 Excess deaths.

Also for reference there excess official Covid count is 90k, but excess deaths are at 275,000 over the pandemic.


 
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