Coronavirus (2021) thread

[mcfc_ms]

Just at the Etihad now taking my mates dad for his 2nd. Suns out and it's full of people getting jabbed. So many more here now than there was 12 weeks ago when he came for his first

 

[Healdplace]

Zoe App Update:

Predicted UK cases fall again by 46 on yesterday to new all time low of just 897. Was 1313 last Sunday.

Reported UK ongoing symptomatic cases down by 945 to go below 20K at 19, 565. Was 27, 499 last Sunday.



They recently reassessed the way they collate data using various studies - one impacting the ongoing symptomatic case data by finding that only 52.2% of those with Covid recover within 13 days of symptom onset.

They say their data now aligns more closely with the ONS data on case prevalence.

Incidentally the estimated cases map matches what we see from the real data - and often pre-empts this - unsurprisingly given how the case data reported by Gov UK is a collation of tests that occurred over the past several days so has a small built in lag.

For instance it shows Manchester fall to really low numbers which we saw last night.

Oddly it has been indicating Bury increasing to most infected in Greater Manchester (which has appeared in the data of past week or so after Zoe spotted it - though it is still not that high or worst in GM just relatively so within GM). We will see I guess!

Indeed the current epicentre of the NW is Liverpool with cases reported there double those in Bury at 2222 per million versus in GM (cases per million for each borough):

Bolton 188

Bury 1147

Manchester 281

Oldham 159

Rochdale 192

Salford 207

Stockport 204

Tameside 210

Trafford 376

Wigan 335



Other places you might want to avoid near the North West are Hull - the stand out in the north with a per million rate of 5470. Five times Bury and more than double Liverpool

In Yorkshire Wakefield is at 1887 and Barnsley1683.

But - if you were planning a Bank Holiday day trip - Flintshire between Chester and Prestatyn clocks up 2172 per million and is the only real problem area in Wales right now as you see from the low numbers. Most of the cases are coming from there.

 

[Rammy Blue]

no I had a teams call with 111 and I felt absolutely dreadful. They took me in straight away and treated me with steroids and oxygen. I completely underestimated how bad this is. Still feel very weak and tired and sick but a bit better.

It certainly sounds extremely shitty, hopefully you’ve turned the corner now.

Do you know what your oxygen levels had dropped too?

 

[Healdplace]

Following the debate on the tumbling Zoe app cases with symptoms and why it is falling faster than actual cases.

They have found that the ONS has been steadily revealing that asymptomatic cases have become more and more common in the past 3 months when matched with just those testing strongly positive.

Symptomless cases were only at 10% of tests early in the new year but steadily seem to have fallen and were at about 50% for the month of March.

As Zoe numbers come from self reported symptoms that would be why these numbers are going down as steadily as they are by around 1000 a day on average. And have fallen from well over 100,000 to 19,000 in a couple of months.

Question is - what is the main reason for asymptomatic cases rising?

You would presume the most likely is the vaccine as that is its true aim - to mitigate impact of Covid not eradicate.

And also one assumes that as we know from the data far less people over 65 are now testing positive than those under 30 and so this will skew the data as younger people are more likely to have fewer symptoms.

 

[hammocity]

Ever so slightly - kept in overnight and on drips and oxygen but just discharged ! Fuck me it’s a bastad.

Took me 16 days to feel better and about 6 weeks to fully recover, the good news is hopefully you've been discharged because they will be confident you're not in danger. It's a horrible disease. Don't try and rush back into normal life, get as much rest as possible. @tolmie's hairdoo maybe the best person to consult, he had it really bad and had some great advice, best wishes to you.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland data:

1 death - was 0 last week

176 cases - was 214 last week

1.3% positivity - was 1.6% last week.

No other updates from here today.

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland data;

0 deaths - was 0 last week

73 cases - was 82 last week

1.3% positivity - was 1.6% last week

4 care home outbreaks - same as yesterday and last week

Rolling 7 day cases total 698 - was 715 yesterday and 788 last week.

60 patients - down 4 on day - was 68 last week

3 ventilated - same as yesterday - was 5 last week

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland:~

Testing positive by age

0 - 19 (242) 34.7%

20 - 39 ( 217) 31.1%

40 - 59 (172) 24.6%

60 - 79 (52) 7.5%

80 PLUS (15) 2.1%

As you see - under 10% over 60 testing positive (hence the fall in deaths) It was nearer 30% in January.

And 65.8% under 40 - this has been rising slowly week by week.

Little doubt the reverse order of testing positive now is a consequence of the reverse age order of vaccinating

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital deaths:


Sunday reported data (from Saturday) so always low as it is weekend but

Just 6 with 0 from North West

Last week was 9 with 1, week before 11 with 3, week before 15 with 0.

6 is the lowest Saturday data since mid September.

All 6 were from just one day - Friday.

3 from Midlands (2 at Sandwell, Birmingham the only double figures)

1 from East, 1 from South East and 1 from South West.

All other regions 0.

 

[SWP's back]

Ever so slightly - kept in overnight and on drips and oxygen but just discharged ! Fuck me it’s a bastad.

What colour is the boat house at Wythenshawe Covid Unit?