Dusan Vlahovic | Signed for Juventus

[Gaz (FMwkdsoul)]

Doesn’t exceeding your xG bode well? He’s out scoring what he should be based on the chances created - clinical & efficient. Suggests in a side creating more, he’d score even better? I don’t get it as a reason to be cautious at face value..

Dusan Vlahovic | Signed for Juventus

Get this done.

forums.bluemoon-mcfc.co.uk

 

[AlanBalls]

Doesn’t exceeding your xG bode well? He’s out scoring what he should be based on the chances created - clinical & efficient. Suggests in a side creating more, he’d score even better? I don’t get it as a reason to be cautious at face value..

Three reasons for consistently exceeding xG:

1. Clinical as they come
2. Consistently poor goalkeeping
3. Extended purple patch

Once a striker starts to exceed their xG for longer than a 1-season period, you can comfortably say they’re just clinical. CR37 does it, Messi does it, Haaland does it. Vlahovic is getting there.

 

[Gaz (FMwkdsoul)]

Three reasons for consistently exceeding xG:

1. Clinical as they come
2. Consistently poor goalkeeping
3. Extended purple patch

Once a striker starts to exceed their xG for longer than a 1-season period, you can comfortably say they’re just clinical. CR37 does it, Messi does it, Haaland does it. Vlahovic is getting there.

CR7 didn't even hit the same rate Dusan has while he was in Italy. Cant stats earlier than that, gotta assume he smashed the shit out of it a few times in Madrid.

 

[The Fat el Hombre]

This is a tweet I really found interesting having seen a lot of overperforming xG shouts against Vlahohic.
The comparison with Belotti makes me a bit nervous because I do watch a little Seria A because of him and the league is dangerously slow.

We have a decent scouting department so if we eventually go for him, we would be fine because of the chances we create.
I worry about what happens after Pep leaves and we don't have an out of this world striker as we had in Aguero who was unperturbed by who the manager is and just creates goals out of nowhere.

Good job football isn't played on spreadsheets.

I'd bet a reasonable sum of money that tweet doesn't age very well

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

Good job football isn't played on spreadsheets.

I'd bet a reasonable sum of money that tweet doesn't age very well

Vlahovic certainly has the right attitude that Pep would love.

 

[HolisticJim]

Not going to pretend I watch him every week like others do, I've seen bits, looks decent enough, has attributes we could find useful but doesn't seem special, just very good. Wouldn't be against signing him but If we missed out on vlahovic and he went to chelsea/liverpool/United next season, we might look on from time to time and think he could have been useful here but I doubt we would dwell on it and the next vlahovic will already be earmarked.

Can't say the same for Haaland, he's already special and got so much improvement to make. If he rocked up at another English club we would be envious on a weekly basis even if we're still successful. We can't allow that to happen no matter what. We're comfortably best placed of the English clubs to lure him, arguably best suited of any club, we have to be throwing everything in the hat to get him here.

Then once he's here we work on him daily until we convince him to drop his slimy agent and we don't have any of the standard Raiola bullshit in 2 seasons time.

But unfortunately we would have the standard Raiola bullshit in 2 seasons time.... And every 2 seasons until he left and pulled the same bullshit at another club. Its just not worth the hassle.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

But unfortunately we would have the standard Raiola bullshit in 2 seasons time.... And every 2 seasons until he left and pulled the same bullshit at another club. Its just not worth the hassle.

Raiola only chirps up when his clients want him to do so.

He couldn’t even find Santner a club when we wanted to sell him.

 

[HolisticJim]

Raiola only chirps up when his clients want him to do so.

He couldn’t even find Santner a club when we wanted to sell him.

I don't agree at all. Raiola chirps up when he wants a pay packet. A lot of players are just young guys. What were you like at 20?
They are easily led and he does what is required to get them more money - whispering in their ears and causing trouble for clubs.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

I don't agree at all. Raiola chirps up when he wants a pay packet. A lot of players are just young guys. What were you like at 20?
They are easily led and he does what is required to get them more money - whispering in their ears and causing trouble for clubs.

Which players are you referring to?

 

[Agueroooo9320]

Vlahovics over performance in stats is quite similar to Dennis from Watford this season. If Watford would have got 6 penalties this season, and Dennis had taken and scored them all, would we consider him as a worthy Aguero replacement?

Vlahovic is of course, in my opinion, a better player than Dennis. I think he would be a good fit for us, fits the mould of players we usually target, and offers something we are currently missing at a reasonable price. He would be a good signing imo. But lets not pretend he is at Haalands level in ability. Signing Vlahovic could be the missing piece of the puzzle, signing Haaland would be a game changer.

Vlahovics over-performance reminds me of salah in liverpools's successful run because that is what great strikers do

 

[Vester]

Vlahovics over-performance reminds me of salah in liverpools's successful run because that is what great strikers do

If you are over performing your stats during a shorter period of time (like half a season), it more often than not shows that you are a bit lucky at the moment. If you do it over years we can talk about it being consistent. Recent example is Lingard at West Ham last year, that for a shorter period of time delivered elite numbers. Its unsustainable since he is not a elite player. Time will tell if Vlahovic is or not, but there is no way he could keep over performing his numbers this much over time. Unless he is the greatest striker of all time.

With that said he could still be a great striker for us.

 

[Agueroooo9320]

If you are over performing your stats during a shorter period of time (like half a season), it more often than not shows that you are a bit lucky at the moment. If you do it over years we can talk about it being consistent. Recent example is Lingard at West Ham last year, that for a shorter period of time delivered elite numbers. Its unsustainable since he is not a elite player. Time will tell if Vlahovic is or not, but there is no way he could keep over performing his numbers this much over time. Unless he is the greatest striker of all time.

With that said he could still be a great striker for us.

nonsense. If you over-perform for a short period for very little goals in the range of 10-20 then it might mean lucky like gundo last year. but if you over-perform scoring so many goals that you break record after record it has often to do with your finishing ability don't you think?

 

[Vester]

nonsense. If you over-perform for a short period for very little goals in the range of 10-20 then it might mean lucky like gundo last year. but if you over-perform scoring so many goals that you break record after record it has often to do with your finishing ability don't you think?

That is very true, and exactly what I just wrote when I said if you do it over years you are not lucky, you are consistent. But this has nothing to do with Vlahovic since he has not broken record after record, or done it for years, he has broken one record, mostly because of a stunning return this first half of the season and a huge number of pens. Its only this season he has over-performed by some noticeable extent. He has scored 10 non-penalty goals from a npxG of 5.71. The over performance is with other words like you said "very little goals". Last year he scored 15 non-penalty goals in 37 games, and did not over-perform his numbers even close to what he is doing this season. Which shows he is a great young striker, but not exactly Haaland level. But when you combine 4-5 goals over-performance in xG this season, with a goal every third game from a penalty (10 in total this calendar year), that's all of a sudden 15 goals out of the record 33.

But like I said, I think he is a good striker, and that he would be a great option for us. And his ability to score penalties is something that could come in handy considering we are not exactly clinical in that department. Im just saying that his current numbers are a bit inflated by a 75% unsustainable over-performance in xG (25-50% is considered elite) this season and a huge number of pens.

 

[Cozmo Bozo]

Yes, those are excellent points and I am sure that our scouts will absolutely take this into consideration and not be fooled by a simple 'goals scored' column. If City decide to go for him, it will be based on what they see in his general play, as much as his finishing, as well as as his potential to develop his game as he's obviously still very young.

I would like to stress that he has the looks of a quality player, but it's important to put those 'record numbers' into context.

 

[js1993]

That is very true, and exactly what I just wrote when I said if you do it over years you are not lucky, you are consistent. But this has nothing to do with Vlahovic since he has not broken record after record, or done it for years, he has broken one record, mostly because of a stunning return this first half of the season and a huge number of pens. Its only this season he has over-performed by some noticeable extent. He has scored 10 non-penalty goals from a npxG of 5.71. The over performance is with other words like you said "very little goals". Last year he scored 15 non-penalty goals in 37 games, and did not over-perform his numbers even close to what he is doing this season. Which shows he is a great young striker, but not exactly Haaland level. But when you combine 4-5 goals over-performance in xG this season, with a goal every third game from a penalty (10 in total this calendar year), that's all of a sudden 15 goals out of the record 33.

But like I said, I think he is a good striker, and that he would be a great option for us. And his ability to score penalties is something that could come in handy considering we are not exactly clinical in that department. Im just saying that his current numbers are a bit inflated by a 75% unsustainable over-performance in xG (25-50% is considered elite) this season and a huge number of pens.

Have you actually watched him play? Or are you basing this on YouTube and/or regurgitation of other peoples opinions?

Not understanding how you’d consider this lad a penalty merchant if you’ve ever actually watched him play.

Carried Fiorentina through a very tricky season last year, despite only being 20 years old.

whether it’s for us, or another club, he will score plenty of goals wherever he ends up.

 

[Vester]

Have you actually watched him play? Or are you basing this on YouTube and/or regurgitation of other peoples opinions?

Not understanding how you’d consider this lad a penalty merchant if you’ve ever actually watched him play.

Carried Fiorentina through a very tricky season last year, despite only being 20 years old.

whether it’s for us, or another club, he will score plenty of goals wherever he ends up.

Since my mother comes from just outside of Florence I have always had a soft spot for Fiorentina, and watch them roughly around ~20 times every year. How about you?

I am not saying he is a penalty merchant, I am stating the fact that 10 of his goals scored this year comes from penalties. He is carrying Fiorentina at the moment, and like I said several times I think he would be a great option for us. What I am saying is that I think he is a significant step down in quality from Haaland. Feel free to disagree

 

[Deleted member 87819]

Yes, those are excellent points and I am sure that our scouts will absolutely take this into consideration and not be fooled by a simple 'goals scored' column. If City decide to go for him, it will be based on what they see in his general play, as much as his finishing, as well as as his potential to develop his game as he's obviously still very young.

I would like to stress that he has the looks of a quality player, but it's important to put those 'record numbers' into context.

This graph really shows why Haaland and Mbappe will rule the next decade

 

[decmancity]

Yes, those are excellent points and I am sure that our scouts will absolutely take this into consideration and not be fooled by a simple 'goals scored' column. If City decide to go for him, it will be based on what they see in his general play, as much as his finishing, as well as as his potential to develop his game as he's obviously still very young.

I would like to stress that he has the looks of a quality player, but it's important to put those 'record numbers' into context.

Good to see Nmecha doing well.

 

[Delphinho]

Yes, those are excellent points and I am sure that our scouts will absolutely take this into consideration and not be fooled by a simple 'goals scored' column. If City decide to go for him, it will be based on what they see in his general play, as much as his finishing, as well as as his potential to develop his game as he's obviously still very young.

I would like to stress that he has the looks of a quality player, but it's important to put those 'record numbers' into context.

Pointless graph. If you look at only expected goals and assists, not ACTUAL goal contributions, it tells more about the team he’s playing in than the player itself. Hence why Mbappe and Haaland’s stats are much better. You’re basically comparing PSG and Dortmund (CL teams) to Fiorentina (mid table side). If you look closely you’ll notice the players with better stats plays for Liverpool, Chelsea, Dortmund, PSG and City, some of the best sides in the world. Wirtz is the only true exception, but he’s also the main creative force in a team that averages 2,4 goals a game. What would be interesting is a comparison between actual goals and assists with expected G&A, which Vlahovic has been doing very well for the last 18 months

 

[Vester]

Pointless graph. If you look at only expected goals and assists, not ACTUAL goal contributions, it tells more about the team he’s playing in than the player itself. Hence why Mbappe and Haaland’s stats are much better. You’re basically comparing PSG and Dortmund (CL teams) to Fiorentina (mid table side). If you look closely you’ll notice the players with better stats plays for Liverpool, Chelsea, Dortmund, PSG and City, some of the best sides in the world. Wirtz is the only true exception, but he’s also the main creative force in a team that averages 2,4 goals a game. What would be interesting is a comparison between actual goals and assists with expected G&A, which Vlahovic has been doing very well for the last 18 months

Agree with large parts of this, since xG largely depends on your role in a team, and the teams strenght in comparison to the teams they are facing. Vlahovic could very well be om top of this graph if he played for City. But than again, so could 20 others be too.

I think its fair to say Vlahovic is one of the most exiting young strikers in Europe at the moment, and he could score goals for fun here. He could also be another Jovetic (failure wise, they are not the same type of player). But every transfer is a risk, and if we sign him I will be happy. I would just much rather sign Haaland, who in my opinion are the closest thing to a sure bet you can get.