Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Octavian]

BuT iT oNLy kIlLs fAt oLd pEoPLe…

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RIP but what a fucking idiot

 

[N1985]

BuT iT oNLy kIlLs fAt oLd pEoPLe…

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To be fair he's just a fat bloke on gear, making him look a bit less of a fat bloke. I imagine his heart is absolutely fucked anyway.

 

[True_Blue69]

I don't think Boris gambled for Delta at all. 20m Delta cases since June, mainly among the vaccinated, has given us a strong base immunity for the winter - Valance was the main driver for this and prior to Omicron arriving this was starting to pay off in spades compared to many European countries from the start of November onwards.
As to Omicron - UK Epidemiologist modellers REFUSING to accept the difference between Delta and Omicron in SA (known for 3 weeks now) as the base line for Omicron virulence is arrogance of the highest order.
Boris waiting to see the actual data before introducing further restrictions is a gamble but not much of one. Especially as throwing the UK economy under the restriction train for another 6 months is probably the bigger gamble as it would be devastating to the UK economy.

Boris’s decisions in covid restrictions over the past 8-10 months has proven to be spot on. Seaweed and the Welsh loon however, playing politics and constantly getting it wrong.

 

[BlueAnorak]

The main issue is hospitals don't operate nationally and that isn't reflected in the data. All people see is a graph where hospitalisations are flat but that's the national picture. A flat graph nationally can still represent significant changes and problems locally.

Below is the hospitalisations for London where cases related to Omicron are dominant. If this was reflected in some areas then the hospitals would collapse. London is very well equipped to deal with this change, others may not be.

Yeah it's probably caused by the unvaccinated and who knows what but hospitals don't have the luxury of choosing patients.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion&areaName=London

Well yes but London has the largest unvaccinated population by percentage in the country so it really isn't the place to chose as a model for the pandemic. Massive numbers were admitted for something else as well and just happened to test +ve subsequently.
I'm waiting for trusts in places like Oxfordshire to publish their figures. They have been hit early by Omicron and are more representative of the country as a whole.
The decision makers already have this information but are not taking action (yet).

 

[hammocity]

The death reporting was/is the same for delta and omicron so that makes no sense for one.

Also, excess deaths is not wholly about covid and dying from covid, it also includes everything that covid (and a stymied health system from that) creates such a more cancer deaths, hugely increased instances of suicide and other deaths from causes unrelated to the virus itself.

The UK’s excess deaths vs covid registered deaths is also way off.

39 year old engineer who I got to know through doing some work for his employer with 3 kids and one more on the way hanged himself a couple of months ago, no suicide note, everything to live for. There’s no knowing what his reason was but this desperate virus can be thrown in the mix.

 

[Healdplace]

Thought this was worth posting here not the data thread where I usually update these numbers as it is potemtial good news.

Zoe today has London falling for the first time since its numbers went through the roof a couple of weeks ago. Which may be good news.

Still amost double the North West but NW are second and escalating more per day and if these trends continue for a few more days could even eclipse London as the epicentre. It appears only a matter of time.

The daily predicted cases are still rising but the growth has slowed the past few days. It rose today to 188,516 from 183,592 - the stalling and now falling of London being the main reason.

Ongoing predcted symptomatic cases are the highest ever on 1,991,941 - which is around 1 in 34 people in the UK now havng ongoing Covid symptoms.

The graph below shows the continuing steep climb on the far right day to day of these ongoing case numbers - any fall will lag a few days behind daily changes.

 

[Healdplace]

The other good news the graph above shows is that we are now almost double the cases on Zoe that we had last Winter at the peak of the previously bggest wave. Pre vaccines to all but the first few.

Yet the hospital data then to now is not double. In fact it is far better than being halved.

In the January Zoe peak of that past biggest wave V today.

The difference is stark:

UK Patients in hospital then 36,751 V 9596 now

UK Patients on ventilators then 3363 V 864 now

UK deaths then 1243 V (approx) 150 - as we only have the most recent England and Wales numbers here.

In any case the huge difference between then and now is obvious and has one main reason. Vaccines.

Though Omicron being less severe might be a factor it is a bit early for that to be the main one.

 

[super_city_si]

Thank fuck i had the vaccine if this is considered mild.

 

[Bluewonder]

Thank fuck i had the vaccine if this is considered mild.

It's considered mild mostly because of the vaccine!

 

[Gabriel]

It's considered mild mostly because of the vaccine!

Is it? I thought ‘mild’ and ‘milder’ originated from South Africa, particularly in Coetzee’s description of patients presenting, many of whom were unvaccinated.

 

[Healdplace]

Sadly the England hospital numbers today are even worse than yesterday. The worst in a long time.

Up by 1072 from 8474 to 9546.

Moreover the rises are starting to be everywhere.

London up 384 to 3024.

North West up 166 to 1392.

NE & Yorkshire up 188 to 1077

Midlands up 128 to 1571.

South East up 116 to 1042.

We need the cases to flatten off at least as we are now into 5 figures in hospital in the UK for the first time in ages and at this rate could be 20K in a week or so.

That will begin to stretch resources if staff are also off sick or isolating.

We also have to hope the shorter stay data from South Africa translates here. As that will mitigate the problem - but it will be a few days before we know that for sure.

 

[117 M34]

Sadly the England hospital numbers today are even worse than yesterday. The worst in a long time.

Up by 1072 from 8474 to 9546.

Moreover the rises are starting to be everywhere.

London up 384 to3024.

North West up 166 to 1392.

NE & Yorkshire up 188 to 1077

Midlands up 128 to 1571.

South East up 116 to 1042,

That's not good.
Will be some sort of restrictions surely if they continue to rise.

 

[Healdplace]

That's not good.
Will be some sort of restrictions surely if they continue to rise.

Depends on the caveats I added. We can handle this in the short term. This level of input day after day and not reduced by the shorter stays in South Africa plus the isolation of hospital staff who are catching it in the most stressed regions are the things to watch. Be a few days before we know how those track in the UK. Hopefully what happened in SA happens here too and the 1000 a day going in leads to nothing like 7000 a week extra patients due to shorter stays.

 

[Scottyboi]

Are these hospital numbers from people going in Ill with covid, or does it include people with broken arms etc testing positive whilst being treated for their other ailments.

If the figure includes both then it's a waste of time.

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

Are these hospital numbers from people going in Ill with covid, or does it include people with broken arms etc testing positive whilst being treated for their other ailments.

If the figure includes both then it's a waste of time.

Longish thread but he's pretty much covering what you've asked.

 

[johnnytapia]

Totally out of character for the doom-loving Guardian:

Omicron is ‘not the same disease’ as earlier Covid waves, says UK scientist

Sir John Bell says disease ‘appears less severe’ as other scientists criticise lack of new restrictions in England

www.theguardian.com

Only a matter of time...

Another record daily rise in UK Covid cases, but Omicron ‘appears less severe’

Variant fuels wave of infections, but some scientists strike upbeat note, one saying high death rates ‘now history’

www.theguardian.com

 

[carlosthejackal]

Are these hospital numbers from people going in Ill with covid, or does it include people with broken arms etc testing positive whilst being treated for their other ailments.

If the figure includes both then it's a waste of time.

Can’t understand why the data on this is not released , leads to so much misinformation

 

[Marvin]

The hospital admission data for London show nothing alarming. A significant rise but nothing scary.

Look for the daily admissions link if you want. This gives data up to and including Boxing Day https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

 

[Scottyboi]

Can’t understand why the data on this is not released , leads to so much misinformation

Yep makes it fucking pointless posting it tbh.

 

[Healdplace]

Can’t understand why the data on this is not released , leads to so much misinformation

Especially as this was what they were finding a lot in South Africa.

But the data has endless issues in the UK. Half of it is and will be missing for most of the next week too given the weekend for the two holidays adding extra bank holidays on week days.

Some data is only being published omce in a 10 day period!

Only 18 deaths today is nothing like the real number and no case data again outside England and Wales again. So the true total will be well over the 129K reported.