Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BlueAnorak]

11,452 in hospital in England - up 990 today. Risen by 1000 a day for the last 4 days from 7536 on Boxing Day.

North West up 178 today to 1708. Up 716 on last Thursday, The regions above all up by by similar numbers today. London the least. Yorkshire the most.

Need to compare total hospital beds v Covid only hospital bests to get an idea of what really is happening.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Then make people wear them properly. These things work we know that. Only one thing matteres keeping the numbers in hospital down. Whatever it takes anything else is self interest. Boris has taken a gamble that may or may not work, the other three nations are being more cautious ,nobody knows yet who's right.None of the restrictions in the UK are particulary hard, other countries have far tighter restrictions . We are guessing, it's how much you want to gamble,.

Boot the anti vaxxers out of hospital. That’ll quickly open up a few beds.

Why the fuck should I give up even a sliver of my liberty to help thick arse flat earth wankers.

 

[blueparrot]

Boot the anti vaxxers out of hospital. That’ll quickly open up a few beds.

Why the fuck should I give up even a sliver of my liberty to help thick arse flat earth wankers.

Meanwhile in the real world.

 

[Octavian]

With due respect to the author, the numbers quoted are highly speculative, to put it mildly.

It needs a proper study to reach any such conclusion.

Well just a bit of research can show the difference from a layman’s perspective, 15.2 people die on average from 100,000 infections of influenza (US stats), with 48% vaccinations for over 18s.

Taking data from earlier in December, there were over 1 million Covid cases and we now have less than 100 deaths (UK data). Taking that down to 100,000, it’s around 6 from that number now. Of course health care on offer and 90% UK vaccinations for Covid need to be considered but you’re more likely to die of influenza if you catch it now, than Covid, if you’re double jabbed and 9/10 adults are.

The problem we have is how contagious omicron is - I’ve read it’s the most contagious virus in history (?) - that will cause issues throughout society but we certainly don’t need to worry about bodies piling up.

 

[hgblue]

Incidently it may be a bit worse on the continent and the US where the AZ vaccine was used a lot less or not at all. Studies are starting to show T-Cell memory for AZ vaccinations is a thing that doesn't happen anything like as much with mRNA.
The immunity from 20m+ Delta infections in the UK since June may also give us enhanced T-Cell immunity and this will apply to a similar degree in the US.

You wouldn't happen to know why the AZ vaccine was ditched in this country would you? It's been bugging me for a while.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Taking data from earlier in December, there were over 1 million Covid cases and we now have less than 100 deaths (UK data).

No idea where your numbers are from, but

(1) there were 100 deaths a day through December in the UK
(2) there were about 50,000 recorded cases a day until the middle of the month. The subsequent omicron rise will not yet have come through to deaths.
(3) There's a huge age related effect with covid, so you need to correct for that.

 

[Gabriel]

Any idea when it's due to arrive in UK EU ?

The United States was expecting 65,000 this year and another 200,000 in January. The UK (DailyMail*) has upped its order from 200,000 to 2.5 million, but the NHS doesn’t anticipate having these to roll out immediately; I’d imagine some supply next month and then more as the year progresses. It’s still awaiting full approval in the UK, I think. The EMA hasn’t given its official approval yet either, but is basically telling physicians to go ahead and use it where available. Germany has upped its own order, too, on top of what the Union orders.

From what I gather, there will be short supply in January, and it’ll primarily be used with those at great risk and those already hospitalised. Of course, its effectiveness is very much tied to being used as close to diagnosis as possible, but that in turn is dependent on having a ready supply of PCR tests…

 

[Healdplace]

No idea where your numbers are from, but

(1) there were 100 deaths a day through December in the UK
(2) there were about 50,000 recorded cases a day until the middle of the month. The subsequent omicron rise will not yet have come through to deaths.
(3) There's a huge age related effect with covid, so you need to correct for that.

To demonstrate that here are the 365 England hospital deaths reported today from the past 6 days over Christmas. By age.

0-19 (1) 20 - 39 (8) 40 - 59 (45) 60 - 79 (134) 80 PLUS (177)

 

[roubaixtuesday]

are starting to show T-Cell memory for AZ vaccinations is a thing that doesn't happen anything like as much with mRNA

The UKHSA analysis shows very similar efficacy for two dose mRNA and two dose AZ vs omicron; better efficacy for two dose mRNA vs delta.

For 3 dose, AZ first dose appears better, but this result is based on just 8 hospitalizations, so very, very uncertain.

Table 3

Report 50 - Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England

Report 50 - Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England

www.imperial.ac.uk

 

[roubaixtuesday]

You wouldn't happen to know why the AZ vaccine was ditched in this country would you? It's been bugging me for a while.

Slightly higher risk of side effects.

Slightly lower efficacy.

Risk balance still very positive, but not as good as Pfizer.

 

[Octavian]

No idea where your numbers are from, but

(1) there were 100 deaths a day through December in the UK
(2) there were about 50,000 recorded cases a day until the middle of the month. The subsequent omicron rise will not yet have come through to deaths.
(3) There's a huge age related effect with covid, so you need to correct for that.

(1) there are less than 100 deaths a day now and they have been decreasing steadily
(2) official cases are that we’ve had 100,000+ per day for 8 days now, we haven’t had 50,000 for over 2 weeks - that said, haven’t they predicted this number can be far greater due to milder symptoms? 1 million having Covid pre-Christmas was stated by the government
(3) as there is with influenza and why we usually do not vaccinate under 50s.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

(1) there are less than 100 deaths a day now and they have been decreasing steadily

This is largely, perhaps entirely because of reporting over Christmas.

I think (though I'm not sure) that the age effect is much more marked with covid.

You need to be careful with definitions (IFR, CFR, and whether vaccination or prior infection is included).

I doubt there is sufficient evidence yet, given the highly dynamic nature of the outbreak, to make any accurate assessment of fatality rate. We can hope it's very low, given the lack of impact on ventilator use, or fear it's quite high given the SA excess deaths.

There were various claims early in COVID, including from very high profile researchers, that IFR was low. They all proved false.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

Some rambling thoughts about lessons from 2021, and what might be coming for 2022.

1. Vaccination has transformed things for the better in UK and developed world. We've failed the developing world and need to sort that with the utmost urgency.
2. Variants (delta, omicron) can change things extremely rapidly.
3. Vaccination isn't enough on it's own. It doesn't provide sufficient, durable protection to control major outbreaks. These are very likely to come, and we need to avoid lockdowns in response, and any significant restrictions if at all possible.
4. We need more routine health care and social care capacity so we can cope with peaks (this was also true pre-covid for general winter pressure)
5. We have many other weapons: ventilation, air filtration, homeworking, support for isolation, mask wearing etc. We need a proper strategy on implementing these.
6. We need an emergency response plan for new variants. That should include stockpiling antivirals, which now look very, very promising.
7. We should immediately send anyone comparing covid responses to Nazism to a re-education camp North East of Yekaterinburg.

All of this requires a huge amount of cash. But far less than not doing it.

I didn’t have you down as a striker denier! Haaland should be no.1 on that list…

On a serious note in terms of lessons from 2021 that I would add to your list is that 2022 has to be the year where much more transparency and grown up conversations have to be had by governments to their citizens everywhere...humans don't do suspended animation very well and we need an honest blue print back to normality fairly soon for all our sakes.

 

[Octavian]

This is largely, perhaps entirely because of reporting over Christmas.

I think (though I'm not sure) that the age effect is much more marked with covid.

You need to be careful with definitions (IFR, CFR, and whether vaccination or prior infection is included).

I doubt there is sufficient evidence yet, given the highly dynamic nature of the outbreak, to make any accurate assessment of fatality rate. We can hope it's very low, given the lack of impact on ventilator use, or fear it's quite high given the SA excess deaths.

There were various claims early in COVID, including from very high profile researchers, that IFR was low. They all proved false.

The data on IFR is there, and whilst still early, it’s clear enough from SA, that 3 weeks since their absolute peak of infections, there hasn’t been an upsurge in deaths to match. Which has happened every single wave there - ie cases come and then deaths follow - as does in other countries.

Deaths here on a 7 day average, ignoring Christmas Day and Boxing Day data missing, have been steadily declining. They may go slightly up but that’s incredibly to be a huge increase.

The reason why it’s different this time is studies have shown the virus lingers in the throat, not the lungs.

 

[Healdplace]

189,213 cases

146,604 in England - new record - up 8317 on yesterday & 39,549 on last Thursday.

332 deaths include an England backlog over last 6 days

317 are in England

No idea why it took all day to basically come up with the numbers akin to those we had from England hospitals at 2 pm.

Any details I get round to tonight will go on the data thread.

 

[Tonster]

Oh, and for those excitedly posting media reports of most admissions being "with" rather than "for" covid.

That's bollocks, alas. Ask yourselves why you trust those outlets.

Wouldn’t Chris Hopson be a reliable source?
He quoted this week on incidental admissions.

In the words of one hospital chief executive in the South West this morning: “we’ve seen a 30% increase in covid positive inpatient numbers compared to 7 days ago. But largest proportion are incidental finding on admission, so covid-19 is not the reason for admission

 

[BlueAnorak]

You wouldn't happen to know why the AZ vaccine was ditched in this country would you? It's been bugging me for a while.

Purely down to the enhanced risk of a clot in younger age groups that were being vaccinated + giving enhanced immunity to 50+ year old folks who mainly had AZ first.
mRNA vaccines have better efficacy than AZ for infection within 3 months of vaccination.
You're more likely to drown in a bath than die from an AZ clot but the media doesn't report risk well, they just like frightening us..

 

[Toney’s bookie]

Going to be a busy day tomorrow if we’re going to get the one million cases a day we were told we’d get without lockdown…..

 

[hgblue]

Purely down to the enhanced risk of a clot in younger age groups that were being vaccinated + giving enhanced immunity to 50+ year old folks who mainly had AZ first.
mRNA vaccines have better efficacy than AZ for infection within 3 months of vaccination.
You're more likely to drown in a bath than die from an AZ clot but the media doesn't report risk well, they just like frightening us..

I get that our media are cunts but that doesn't explain why our health professionals acted in the way they did. Hugely ironic that it turns out we had the best vaccine and fucked it off.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Slightly higher risk of side effects.

Slightly lower efficacy.

Risk balance still very positive, but not as good as Pfizer.

The actual answer of course being AZ were giving the vaccine away at cost, and the other pharmaceutical companies leveraged their enormous lobbying power to nip that shit in the bud.