Coronavirus (2021) thread

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davealvers said:
Going to be a busy day tomorrow if we’re going to get the one million cases a day we were told we’d get without lockdown…..
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I get that you're being facetious, but if 200,000 are officially testing positive each day, is it really beyond the realms of possibility that 1 million are actually getting it? Especially with the Christmas/Boxing Day effect and shortage of testing kits/PCRs
 
davealvers said:
Going to be a busy day tomorrow if we’re going to get the one million cases a day we were told we’d get without lockdown…..
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That was 'projected' for Christmas Eve, not New Year's Eve...
Using the same growth rate we should hit approximately 10m cases tomorrow
 
Lambeth epidemic, once the epicentre of London's epidemic. By specimen date. The data will be distorted by difficulties in reporting over Christmas and the latest dates are under represented and incomplete.


1640906335347.png
 
roubaixtuesday said:
With due respect to the author, the numbers quoted are highly speculative, to put it mildly.

It needs a proper study to reach any such conclusion.
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Yes you’ve made it very clear you have no time for African real world data and won’t believe it until some good Christian English folk confirm it in 3-4 weeks.

Silly Africans have even done away with test and trace and don’t even want to know if anyone tests positive unless they need hospital care. Silly Africans have seen how mild Omicron is and have decided to stop destroying their economy and have moved into the ‘endemic’ phase. Silly Africans.
 
SWP's back said:
Yes you’ve made it very clear you have no time for African real world data and won’t believe it until some good Christian English folk confirm it in 3-4 weeks.

Silly Africans have even done away with test and trace and don’t even want to know if anyone tests positive unless they need hospital care. Silly Africans have seen how mild Omicron is and have decided to stop destroying their economy and have moved into the ‘endemic’ phase. Silly Africans.
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wouldn't happen to be married to one, would you?
 
Tonster said:
Wouldn’t Chris Hopson be a reliable source?
He quoted this week on incidental admissions.

In the words of one hospital chief executive in the South West this morning: “we’ve seen a 30% increase in covid positive inpatient numbers compared to 7 days ago. But largest proportion are incidental finding on admission, so covid-19 is not the reason for admission

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But what does he know.
 
Some more good news following studies comparing different waves in SA (please note this is foreign data and thus several of you should immediately turn your nose up at it):


Periods covered :

  • Wave 2 (Beta): 29 Nov-26 Dec 2020
  • Wave 3 (#Delta): 2 May-29 May 2021
  • Wave 4 (#Omicron): 14 Nov-11 Dec 2021
How many reported Covid 19 cases (how many people tested positive) during the 1st month of each wave in Gauteng?

  • Wave 2 (Beta): 41,046
  • Wave 3 (#Delta): 33,423
  • Wave 4 (#Omicron): 133,551
Which percentage of people who tested positive for Covid 19 got admitted to hospital in the different waves?

  • Wave 2 (Beta): 18.9% (7,774/41,046)
  • Wave 3 (#Delta): 13.7% (4,574/33,423)
  • Wave 4 (#Omicron): 4.9% (6,510/133,551)
Which percentage of Covid 19 hospital patients had severe disease (Acute respiratory distress, Oxygen supplementation, Ventilation, Intensive care unit admission, Death)

  • Wave 2 (Beta): 60.1% (4,672/7,774)
  • Wave 3 (#Delta): 66.9% (3,058/4,574)
  • Wave 4 (#Omicron): 28.8% (1,276/4,438) [2,072/ 6,510 patients
Percentage of Covid 19 patients needing supplemental oxygen:

  • Wave 2 (Beta): 39.4% (3,063/7,774)
  • Wave 3 (#Delta): 48.8% (2,231/4,574)
  • Wave 4 (#Omicron): 19.7% (875/4,438)
Median hospital stay:

  • Wave 2 (Beta): 7 days
  • Wave 3 (#Delta): 8 days
  • Wave 4 (#Omicron): 4 days
What does the data tell us?

Admitted patients in the 1st month of SA’s Omicron (4th) wave were 73% less likely to have severe disease than patients admitted during the 1st month of the Beta and Delta waves.

Omicron admissions don’t strain the health system to same extent as Delta admissions because Omicron leads to severe disease 73% less often than Delta (after adjustment).

papers.ssrn.com

Clinical Severity of COVID-19 Patients Admitted to Hospitals in Gauteng, South Africa During the Omicron-Dominant Fourth Wave

Background: As Omicron became the dominant variant in South Africa, little is known about the severity of its clinical presentation. We describe the clinical se
papers.ssrn.com
 
Healdplace said:
To demonstrate that here are the 365 England hospital deaths reported today from the past 6 days over Christmas. By age.

0-19 (1) 20 - 39 (8) 40 - 59 (45) 60 - 79 (134) 80 PLUS (177)
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Of those 365 deaths, how many were killed by Covid? How many died without Covid being a factor? The numbers are meaningless without the granular details; as Omicron infects millions then the mortalities with Covid on the death certificate will increase exponentially. And will be reported as “record” Covid deaths by our press. Utterly ridiculous
 
johnnytapia said:
Of those 365 deaths, how many were killed by Covid? How many died without Covid being a factor? The numbers are meaningless without the granular details; as Omicron infects millions then the mortalities with Covid on the death certificate will increase exponentially. And will be reported as “record” Covid deaths by our press. Utterly ridiculous
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It’s utterly ridiculous and utterly pointless to fetishise over the numbers when we don’t have the data of how many are dying because of covid.
 
SWP's back said:
It’s utterly ridiculous and utterly pointless to fetishise over the numbers when we don’t have the data of how many are dying because of covid.
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Flip the coin over and it is utterly pointless to disregard them because we don’t have the data of how many are dying because of covid.

It’s the glass half full vs glass half empty approach.

Hospital numbers are rising sharply. They are nowhere near where they were at this time last year. Therefore we don’t need to lock down at the moment.

If admissions continue to double for the next few weeks, then that will have to be looked at. Is it Covid? Is Covid a major factor? Is Covid a minor factor? Etc.

I’m as hopeful as anyone that it looks like Omicron could well be our route out of this pandemic. We will know for sure in about 6-8 weeks.

It‘s still prudent to be wary of what might happen whilst we see what happens.
 
Dubai Blue said:
I get that you're being facetious, but if 200,000 are officially testing positive each day, is it really beyond the realms of possibility that 1 million are actually getting it? Especially with the Christmas/Boxing Day effect and shortage of testing kits/PCRs
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I don't buy the testing kit shortage. Everyone I seem to speak to, seems to think they're running out when they have less than 4 boxes left...

I think there's a lot of hoarding being done.
 
In April 2020, the media focused on % death rates. In January 2021, the media focused on deaths per day. In December 2021, the media focused on cases. For over 20 months, the media focus is on the statistic that will scare people the most. Because fear sells and it’s bloody ridiculous.

I see Spain had 166,000 ‘cases’ today, which obviously means nothing in the grand scheme of things, but does make a mockery of people wanting more restrictions here, given Spain are lauded for fining people for ‘breaking the rules’ and mask wearing is almost universal. Strange that a cloth face covering hasn’t stopped an aerosol virus.…
 
Octavian said:
Well just a bit of research can show the difference from a layman’s perspective, 15.2 people die on average from 100,000 infections of influenza (US stats), with 48% vaccinations for over 18s.

Taking data from earlier in December, there were over 1 million Covid cases and we now have less than 100 deaths (UK data). Taking that down to 100,000, it’s around 6 from that number now. Of course health care on offer and 90% UK vaccinations for Covid need to be considered but you’re more likely to die of influenza if you catch it now, than Covid, if you’re double jabbed and 9/10 adults are.

The problem we have is how contagious omicron is - I’ve read it’s the most contagious virus in history (?) - that will cause issues throughout society but we certainly don’t need to worry about bodies piling up.
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Omicron less contagious than Mumps (R0=12.2), Whooping Cough (R0=14.2) & Measles (R0=15).
Omicron R0 is about 11 falling to an Rn of 5 with restrictions .
 
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johnnytapia said:
Of those 365 deaths, how many were killed by Covid? How many died without Covid being a factor? The numbers are meaningless without the granular details; as Omicron infects millions then the mortalities with Covid on the death certificate will increase exponentially. And will be reported as “record” Covid deaths by our press. Utterly ridiculous
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I ignore the numbers now and have for a long time.

Meaningless propaganda most of the time and used to scare people.
 
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