Russian invasion of Ukraine

[urban genie]

Never mind the eastern front everyones ignoring Russias war exercises off the Irish coast in the coming weeks, they would be hours away from invading Lands End ;-)

 

[blueinsa]

Good grief. British defence secretary burbling about appeasement. Remind me, how many battalions does the UK have?

We have as of October 21 159,000 active personnel, 32,000 reserves and we spend 2.7% of GDP on defence.

We have 47 full time and reserve battalions.

We also have Trident.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

When the president of Ukraine says he's seen no credible evidence of a planned invasion you start to wonder why the USA is publicly saying they're planning on invading. For me it smacks of the WMD in Iraq reports which turned out to made up by the USA as well. Never trust America bunch of lying scum bags basically the Liverpool of countries

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

I'm guessing that if they do invade the Russians will carry out air strikes for several weeks before any land invasion. Ukraine has a very big army and lots of armour. Much more so than what Putin has encamped on it's borders, so it would suicidal for the Russians to pile in without destroying the Ukranians air defences and air force first, Like the Allies did in the gulf wars.

I just can't believe this is going to happen anytime soon as I just can't see what Putin gains from an invasion. Pariah status, and the loss of foreign investments and frozen assets in exchange for no doubt a long drawn out war of attrition doesn't sound that appealing to me.

 

[blueinsa]

I'm guessing that if they do invade the Russians will carry out air strikes for several weeks before any land invasion. Ukraine has a very big army and lots of armour. Much more so than what Putin has encamped on it's borders, so it would suicidal for the Russians to pile in without destroying the Ukranians air defences and air force first, Like the Allies did in the gulf wars.

I just can't believe this is going to happen anytime soon as I just can't see what Putin gains from an invasion. Pariah status, and the loss of foreign investments and frozen assets in exchange for no doubt a long drawn out war of attrition doesn't sound that appealing to me.

Air superiority is always the first thing needed.

Let’s all hope he backs down, in fact, let’s hope everyone backs down here.

 

[SWP's back]

Intresting cartoon.

NATO bases surround Russia.

They don’t though do they?

Do you honestly think Putin thinks for one minute that NATO and the US are ever going to invade Russia or put her sovereignty into question? Of course you don’t because of course he doesn’t. Therefore where bases are is also immaterial.

NATO does not have anywhere with 350,000 mobilised troops on his literal border.

 

[hammocity]

The Americans were late to World Wars 1 and 2, they have said they will be very punctual for World War 3, Not the 9 o’clock News.

 

[west didsblue]

I'm guessing that if they do invade the Russians will carry out air strikes for several weeks before any land invasion. Ukraine has a very big army and lots of armour. Much more so than what Putin has encamped on it's borders, so it would suicidal for the Russians to pile in without destroying the Ukranians air defences and air force first, Like the Allies did in the gulf wars.

I just can't believe this is going to happen anytime soon as I just can't see what Putin gains from an invasion. Pariah status, and the loss of foreign investments and frozen assets in exchange for no doubt a long drawn out war of attrition doesn't sound that appealing to me.

If it happens I suspect it will be a much more limited exercise where they attack the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that are already largely controlled by Russian militias and then annex them like Crimea.

 

[urban genie]

They don’t though do they?

Do you honestly think Putin thinks for one minute that NATO and the US are ever going to invade Russia or put her sovereignty into question? Of course you don’t because of course he doesn’t. Therefore where bases are is also immaterial.

NATO does not have anywhere with 350,000 mobilised troops on his literal border.

Niether does Russia, American intel says the build up is 120-160 thound russian troops

In tha baltic states NATO has over 40000, with another 3 milliln avaialble if a Nato country is attacked.

Russia versus NATO would be russia versus central and eastern europe (bar the austrians, serbians and swiss), the UK, US and Turkey.

Now if as is probable everyone lets him invade without anyone entering Ukraine to help repel them then the Russian force dwarfs Ukraines adn they are fucked.

Ukraine is used by all as a defcto 38 parallel line and only Ukraine suffers because of this no other fucker.

Russia v NATO will never happen

 

[bobmcfc]

Russia drilling for oil and gas, and also shipping lanes up in the artic which would link to china ? Dominic Cummings linked a very interesting article on twitter . Seems they will be flush with resources

 

[St.Pauli support]

If it happens I suspect it will be a much more limited exercise where they attack the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that are already largely controlled by Russian militias and then annex them like Crimea.

That's what I suppose as well.
There's some strategical sense to improve the access to Crimea.

And maybe US and EU would even accept that in the back room while protesting in front of the cameras. Politics.

I think Putin only wants Ukraine to stay neutral and non-NATO (as NATO do). He knows they have lost Ukraine as a strategical and economical partner.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

I think Putin only wants Ukraine to stay neutral and non-NATO (as NATO do). He knows they have lost Ukraine as a strategical and economical partner.

Agree. But that's only part of the picture.

Putin wants to create situations where Russia is prominent on the world stage. And where his actions are popular.

Invasion of the Ukraine is perfect in that sense and is popular among Russians. They can forget about COVID for awhile, reveling in the might of Mother Russia.

 

[BobKowalski]

Clive Myrie talking sense on bbc one now.

Just because they can invade doesn't mean they will, reiterating in Ukraine itself many are quite calm about it against the hysteria in mainly the US, UK and France

Only 4 statemens voices have been heard on this.

Putin - serial tosspot and enboldened by new deal with China to form a stretegic alliance, especially after China only last year made claims over Russian territory being Chinese lands, but with no threat to his power can piss about and push it as far as he wants especially as the US/UK was made to look inept after the Afghan debarcle, he couldn't give a fuck about day to day russians suffering but need to look strong in front of China.

Johnson - on his arse needs a distraction on the news.

Macron - Election coming up and need a popular win, averting an invasion would be a boon.

Biden - similar to above, inflation in the US is rising, the mid term pollls are not looking good for later in the year, though Biden is doing well a big win on the international stage would be a massive boost.

All 4 have a reason to talk this up while also probably being reluctant to do anythng to escalate.

It's funny if you don't read any UK, US, Russian media bit read reports from countries not involved you get a very different angle that the one we hear everyday and Putins NATO excuse.

Okay, you have one country amassing troops and three others warning of invasion. Want it to de-escalate? Then Russia can pull back its troops and negotiate a lasting peace settlement - oh wait, they’ve done that in the past and ignored it. But maybe we’ll get lucky this time around.

Macron will win no plaudits for nothing happening and get grief if something does. The same is true of Biden. If nothing happens, Biden will be accused of hysteria (as you are doing now), and if something happens then he will be accused of not being strong enough or being weak on the international stage or whatever. There is little upside here and a lot of downside.

Ukrainians have been living with this shit for years, so their only option is to prepare for the worst and in the meantime get on with life and hope all the invasion warnings don’t scare off too much foreign investment and trash the economy.

What all these explicit warnings of invasion have accomplished is to largely control the narrative. Putin would love a pretext, so that any invasion can be portrayed as a ‘defensive move’. Instead, the message being hammered home is that any invasion is naked aggression, which is what it will be. Putin’s NATO threat excuse is weak piss, because no one other than Putin apologists are buying that one. Claims that Ukraine is planning covert moves to ‘damage Russia’ have gained zero traction.

We are here because of the actions of Putin and a Russian elite living in vast villas and dreaming of past glories and a Russian empire. No other reason than that.

 

[metalblue]

Niether does Russia, American intel says the build up is 120-160 thound russian troops

In tha baltic states NATO has over 40000, with another 3 milliln avaialble if a Nato country is attacked.

Russia versus NATO would be russia versus central and eastern europe (bar the austrians, serbians and swiss), the UK, US and Turkey.

Now if as is probable everyone lets him invade without anyone entering Ukraine to help repel them then the Russian force dwarfs Ukraines adn they are fucked.

Ukraine is used by all as a defcto 38 parallel line and only Ukraine suffers because of this no other fucker.

Russia v NATO will never happen

Those over 40,000 “NATO troops” are predominately the national armies of Latvia, Slovenia and Lithuania. So if you’re trying to suggest that NATO is being hostile by amassing 40,000+ troops then you’re wrong.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

Fucking "Little Rocket Man" in Russia - is having his fucking day.

Worst case - it'll lead to WWIII. Honestly this is possible.

Best case - some sort of face-saving gesture by the West will occur and Russia will back off...

Well, maybe not the best, human casualties though will result - perhaps the best outcome is that bully Putin decides to invade The Ukraine - and mass casualties among Russian troops result accompanied by numerous attacks on Russian infrastructure - to the extent that Russians finally reject Putin in mass numbers leading to his overthrow.

 

[urban genie]

Those over 40,000 “NATO troops” are predominately the national armies of Latvia, Slovenia and Lithuania. So if you’re trying to suggest that NATO is being hostile by amassing 40,000+ troops then you’re wrong.

I wasn't and didn't.

The eFP is led thpugh buly multinational battalions of a 1000 troops from the US, UK l, Canada and Germeny in the three bqptic states and poland

The rest are the national armys


I was just stating facts you can fnd on NATOs own website and from sources with no interest in these events and so are non partisan, I have neither a pro NATO or pro Russian angle, the only peole that matter are the Ukranians being used by both sides as a tool.

 

[SWP's back]

Russia v NATO will never happen

that’s exactly my point, so people saying NATO has surrounded Russia is a load of bollocks. Putin doesn’t think for a second that NATO will attack him, it’s a complete misnomer with respect to what he’s doing to Ukraine.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

Okay, you have one country amassing troops and three others warning of invasion. Want it to de-escalate? Then Russia can pull back its troops and negotiate a lasting peace settlement - oh wait, they’ve done that in the past and ignored it. But maybe we’ll get lucky this time around.

Macron will win no plaudits for nothing happening and get grief if something does. The same is true of Biden. If nothing happens, Biden will be accused of hysteria (as you are doing now), and if something happens then he will be accused of not being strong enough or being weak on the international stage or whatever. There is little upside here and a lot of downside.

Ukrainians have been living with this shit for years, so their only option is to prepare for the worst and in the meantime get on with life and hope all the invasion warnings don’t scare off too much foreign investment and trash the economy.

What all these explicit warnings of invasion have accomplished is to largely control the narrative. Putin would love a pretext, so that any invasion can be portrayed as a ‘defensive move’. Instead, the message being hammered home is that any invasion is naked aggression, which is what it will be. Putin’s NATO threat excuse is weak piss, because no one other than Putin apologists are buying that one. Claims that Ukraine is planning covert moves to ‘damage Russia’ have gained zero traction.

We are here because of the actions of Putin and a Russian elite living in vast villas and dreaming of past glories and a Russian empire. No other reason than that.

What he ^^^^ said!

 

[SWP's back]

Okay, you have one country amassing troops and three others warning of invasion. Want it to de-escalate? Then Russia can pull back its troops and negotiate a lasting peace settlement - oh wait, they’ve done that in the past and ignored it. But maybe we’ll get lucky this time around.

Macron will win no plaudits for nothing happening and get grief if something does. The same is true of Biden. If nothing happens, Biden will be accused of hysteria (as you are doing now), and if something happens then he will be accused of not being strong enough or being weak on the international stage or whatever. There is little upside here and a lot of downside.

Ukrainians have been living with this shit for years, so their only option is to prepare for the worst and in the meantime get on with life and hope all the invasion warnings don’t scare off too much foreign investment and trash the economy.

What all these explicit warnings of invasion have accomplished is to largely control the narrative. Putin would love a pretext, so that any invasion can be portrayed as a ‘defensive move’. Instead, the message being hammered home is that any invasion is naked aggression, which is what it will be. Putin’s NATO threat excuse is weak piss, because no one other than Putin apologists are buying that one. Claims that Ukraine is planning covert moves to ‘damage Russia’ have gained zero traction.

We are here because of the actions of Putin and a Russian elite living in vast villas and dreaming of past glories and a Russian empire. No other reason than that.

Pretty much nails the argument.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Agree. But that's only part of the picture.

Putin wants to create situations where Russia is prominent on the world stage. And where his actions are popular.

Invasion of the Ukraine is perfect in that sense and is popular among Russians. They can forget about COVID for awhile, reveling in the might of Mother Russia.

Absolutely, and frankly our pm and Biden both have good reason to want their populations distracted by these events too.
I think we are watching a redrawing of cold war boundaries which has probably been coming for 30 years. Putin gets to wave his dick and Western powers get to justify defense budgets and nukes for years / decades to come.