The Title Race - 2021/22

[Katsunari Takayama]

I would assume that's down to the goal difference, slowly moving towards us needing to drop points in at least 3 games as opposed to 2.

GD is still too close to call. Next weekend will probably see it move back in their favour and if GD comes into it at all it will be because they’ve won their game in hand and beaten us at home and if that happens their GD could well be better than ours.

It’s all ifs and buts though …..we’re firmly in the driving seat and that’s all that really counts

 

[Alfie Budd]

A big intangible in the race is (assuming both teams get through) the Champions League quarter final draw with the two legs in the midweeks immediately before and after we play Liverpool. I certainly don't want to have to play the league game if it's sandwiched between us having to play (for example) Bayern Munich twice. Conversely, us having a more straightforward draw than them potentially makes life a little easier.
There's always the horrible prospect of playing the dippers three times in the space of seven days.....

 

[balotellishaircut]

GD is still too close to call. Next weekend will probably see it move back in their favour and if GD comes into it at all it will be because they’ve won their game in hand and beaten us at home and if that happens their GD could well be better than ours.

It’s all ifs and buts though …..we’re firmly in the driving seat and that’s all that really counts

Why will GD be back in there favour next week, they got a nervous win today, all we can do is keep winning and when they come to the Etihad get the win or draw.

 

[xgorton]

Then after that Liverpool have

City a
villa a
Everton h
Newcastle a
tottenham h
southampton a
wolves h
plus they have to reschedule arsenal away

And rags at home if they win cup game.

 

[Northblue]

I would assume that's down to the goal difference, slowly moving towards us needing to drop points in at least 3 games as opposed to 2.

Also 1 less game to play, the longer the points difference stays the same, the more chance we have of lifting the trophy

 

[117 M34]

Spurs next week worries me.
They've lost 3 on the bounce so due a win and with the whole kane transfer saga in summer it would be typical if he were to score the winner.

 

[Spurs quarter 69]

Went to watch Burnley today with some friends who are Clarets, Liverpool were shite if they play like that the title is ours.

 

[Corky]

Judge for yourself, they open source their data

How Our Club Soccer Predictions Work

References Engsoccerdata / Opta / Transfermarkt Harmonic mean / Massey’s method / Monte Carlo method / Poisson process / Ranked probability score The Details We…

fivethirtyeight.com

By projecting expected goals. Good to see when Everton beat us 4-0 we won on non-shot based expected goals.

 

[Pablo ZZZ Peroni]

A big intangible in the race is (assuming both teams get through) the Champions League quarter final draw with the two legs in the midweeks immediately before and after we play Liverpool. I certainly don't want to have to play the league game if it's sandwiched between us having to play (for example) Bayern Munich twice. Conversely, us having a more straightforward draw than them potentially makes life a little easier.
There's always the horrible prospect of playing the dippers three times in the space of seven days.....

Possibility it could be 4 times in 10 days :)

The weekend after the CL 2nd leg is the FA Cup Semi final and both of us could still be in that as well..

 

[LongsightM13]

By projecting expected goals. Good to see when Everton beat us 4-0 we won on non-shot based expected goals.

Well its a bit more complex than that but like any predictive model there will always be occasional outliers, aka ‘coupon busters’

 

[LongsightM13]

Possibility it could be 4 times in 10 days :)

The weekend after the CL 2nd leg is the FA Cup Semi final and both of us could still be in that as well..

That would be toxic

 

[Alfie Budd]

Possibility it could be 4 times in 10 days :)

The weekend after the CL 2nd leg is the FA Cup Semi final and both of us could still be in that as well..

It happened in Spain when Pep was at Barça and Mourinho at Real. Four Clásicos in a fortnight. From memory it was total carnage!

 

[Pablo ZZZ Peroni]

That would be toxic

Too right it would :)

Knocking them out of the CL and clinching the title in the same week would be the sweetest thing ever.... high stakes or what

 

[Northblue]

A big intangible in the race is (assuming both teams get through) the Champions League quarter final draw with the two legs in the midweeks immediately before and after we play Liverpool. I certainly don't want to have to play the league game if it's sandwiched between us having to play (for example) Bayern Munich twice. Conversely, us having a more straightforward draw than them potentially makes life a little easier.
There's always the horrible prospect of playing the dippers three times in the space of seven days.....

Id hope we have enough buses

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

Spurs next week worries me.
They've lost 3 on the bounce so due a win and with the whole kane transfer saga in summer it would be typical if he were to score the winner.

Spurs are crap. I’d be very surprised if we can’t beat them they way they are playing. Can’t stop conceding goals.

 

[toffee balls]

Spurs next week worries me.
They've lost 3 on the bounce so due a win and with the whole kane transfer saga in summer it would be typical if he were to score the winner.

You worry too much

 

[Marvin]

Spurs next week worries me.
They've lost 3 on the bounce so due a win and with the whole kane transfer saga in summer it would be typical if he were to score the winner.

Spurs are a counter-attacking side so it worries me too. Kane lying deep to feed Son is dangerous for a team like City.

 

[Inter Me Nan]

Spurs are a counter-attacking side so it worries me too. Kane lying deep to feed Son is dangerous for a team like City.

That's countered by Spurs having no defence.

 

[Withnail]

Possibility it could be 4 times in 10 days :)

The weekend after the CL 2nd leg is the FA Cup Semi final and both of us could still be in that as well..

Don't even go there, one game at a time.

 

[StillBluessinceHydeRoad]

There are some views of the number of points Liverpool will get this season which seem to credit them with greater ability than is the case. At the moment they have 54 points from 24 games, an average of 2.25 points per game. If they win all their remaining games they will finish with 96 points but that would mean winning 18 consecutive league matches. While not impossible .... If they continue taking their average of 2.25 points per game they will finish with 85 or 86 points which is much more reasonable. With a strong run in they may increase this to 89 or 90 points. It is interesting to compare these projections with the points totals of PL champions in the last 10 or so years.