If a countries defensive weapon makes you impotent it can’t be considered purely in benign terms. However no amount of anti missile systems on the border of Russia would stop them landing a nuke on top of the White House - surely that would be the remit of re-entry defence systems in and around the US.
They do reduce Russias ability to bully its neighbours however so from a Russian perspective are a bit of a nagging inconvenience.
The threat of Global Thermonuclear War has been present since the 50s, yet not occurred, even though “conventional” war is omnipresent.
If it were as simple as “Fuck off or we will nuke you!” then every government on earth has wasted trillions of dollars on “lesser” arms, the USA and Russia included!
Defensive weapons don’t make all offensive weapons impotent, nor is that an achievable intent. What they do do, though, is help create time to launch an offensive response and may help maintain key infrastructure.
We are getting deep in the weeds and starting to stray from the facts staring us in the face…
Russia is creating instability in Ukraine.
Ukraine is a key geopolitical territory for Russia, both militarily and economically.
The timing of Russia’s show of force is noteworthy. It undermines key European, American and old Soviet foes at a time when the global economy in a period of inflection, and that inflection may aid Russia (increasingly higher oil & gas revenues).
Putin SEES an opportunity, which often leads him to SEIZE the opportunity.
We shall see if he seizes it shortly, and how that plays out will be instructive for the next generation.
Do economic sanctions work, in the absence of retaliatory military actions, or can a country be so vital to greasing the wheels of the global economy it makes any economic hardship one seeks to impose on the antagonist unreasonably painful to the protagonist(s)…or their allies?
Will Germany succumb to the will if the U.S. and stall N2 if German gas prices go vertical or Germans start to complain of American interference?
Is France appeasing Russia or will Macron stand up, and by his German, American and Ukrainian ally?
What CAN America do in the presence of a weak, or fractured, Europe?
Just how important to global stability is an independent Ukraine, and how much is the west willing to do to maintain it?
Putin looks like he’s willing to ask these questions.
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