Russian invasion of Ukraine

Blue Maverick said:
So Putin doesn’t want more missile systems on his borders so invades another country so NATO will put more into Poland etc when he takes over Ukraine therefore more missile system on the border! The guy is a fucking idiot, does he expect us to ever invade Russia? He will invade and the human cost will be huge on both sides for Ukraine and Russia.
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No because as this article says:

504195EB-97AD-4CFD-934E-DC1B84BFB98C.jpeg

It’s not about NATO. It’s about him not wanting a successful democracy of 40m Slavs on his border.
 
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ChicagoBlue said:
“Pantomime” is not the term I would use for what will happen on the ground in Ukraine in February, but the European response seems baked in, as you described.

The question in the USA remains, what are we willing, and not willing, to do to try to dissuade Russian expansionism? Does this military action undermine or exacerbate the desire to put defensive weaponry on the Russian doorstep, as they’ve shown they can put 100,000s of troops and heavy arms on their border in short order.

May we live in interesting times.
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The thing is if he takes Ukraine then doesn't NATO in Poland at 'Russian' borders now become an issue? Does he then take Poland? But then what about Germany, does he then take Germany....?

Obviously that's silly but it just proves that this NATO expansion argument is rubbish and actually it's just a pretext to reform the ex-Soviet territories under Russia to mask his failings over the last 10 years. The only reason Ukraine and other countries would even entertain NATO membership is because of Russian behaviour.

The Russian economy has contracted by 1/3 since its high prior to 2014. Putin also can't handle the fact that the Eastern bloc is looking westwards and not eastwards for prosperity. We have him over a barrel, he knows it and that's why he's using military posturing to mask that fact.

The wildcard for me is China, Putin has trended towards allying with China but we've yet to see the Chinese position in terms of where they fit into the last 30 years of global powerplays dominated by war in the Middle East. If China did become involved somehow and allied with Russia then we are in for a lot more potential indirect pain then we probably realise at the moment.
 
urban genie said:
My biggest concern over this today, is I need to nip to Lidl and in this storm the best hat to wear is my ex soviet ushanka.

I just don't want the people of abbey hey to think a secret invasion has started and panic, but I do want to keep my head warm and dry ;-)
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Used to love that chippy on the bend of Abbey Hey lane when I was walking home from school late.
 
The latest US intelligence re kidnapping, torture and death lists just reeks of childish desperation to hoodwink the western public.
It may well be that terrible things will happen if things kick off but that's war.
And the idea that the West doesn't kidnap and torture the enemy is laughable. Rendition, water boarding, targeted assassinations.
 
robbieh said:
The latest US intelligence re kidnapping, torture and death lists just reeks of childish desperation to hoodwink the western public.
It may well be that terrible things will happen if things kick off but that's war.
And the idea that the West doesn't kidnap and torture the enemy is laughable. Rendition, water boarding, targeted assassinations.
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Yeah, but we only do that to the bad guys…
 
urban genie said:
My biggest concern over this today, is I need to nip to Lidl and in this storm the best hat to wear is my ex soviet ushanka.

I just don't want the people of abbey hey to think a secret invasion has started and panic, but I do want to keep my head warm and dry ;-)
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Put the hat on and cover with a carrier bag
 
I absosilutely think Russia are going to move in now, but I also don't think it's going to be some mass conflict.

It would not surprise me if he's already made deals with Ukrainian leaders for a peaceful transition of power and that there might be pockets of resistance, but this will all be over with quickly.

Without Western intervetion, the Ukranians just don't stand a chance.
 
robbieh said:
Yeah right. Vietnam, Cambodia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Korea and that's just the US.
France.... Algeria, Indochina
UK...going back a bit Iran, Suez, more recently anything the US gets up to.
And let us not forget WW1, France, Britain, Germany were all democracies.

Yeah right we don't like war it's unpopular.
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It might be unpopular but its very very profitable.
 
SWP's back said:
No because as this article says:

View attachment 36982

It’s not about NATO. It’s about him not wanting a success democracy of 40m Slavs on his border.
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Is the right answer for me. Ukraine can become a successful economy and free society - it has all the ingredients if it can sort out corruption. It will make people ask questions in mother Russia about how Ukraine can prosper but Russia can’t. Seize their assets, seize their opportunity and carry on the corruption merry go round.
 
Bazzmand Show said:
I absosilutely think Russia are going to move in now, but I also don't think it's going to be some mass conflict.

It would not surprise me if he's already made deals with Ukrainian leaders for a peaceful transition of power and that there might be pockets of resistance, but this will all be over with quickly.

Without Western intervetion, the Ukranians just don't stand a chance.
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Well they don't stand a xhamce then as the main ones makomg noise have no interest in intervening.

To some western powers the Ukraine is seen as an independent buffer zone after belarus basically became a satelite state Ukraine being pro west and possibly a new nato member (but never gonna be given membership) keeps russia off the direct border.

For 400 years through various guises russian empire, soviet union, russian fwderation Russians have believed they are strongly linked to the baltic states, ukrian, belarus and finland as a collective both geopoliticaly and cultturaly.

This is rinse and repeat centuries of russian interference or dream of occupation and unification.

As for this being about Putin scared of a western style democracy on his border, well the chances of such coming about in Russia is zero since America and Europe backed the wrong horse in Boris Yeltsin over the communist reformers who wanted to democasize the soviet union, his coup destroyed that and reinforced Russian belief in a strong state model, used by Tzars, Stalin and now Putin.
 
I openly admit I dont speak Russian and am posting in the hopes that someone here does and can verify what is being said in the tweet?

 
robbieh said:
Yeah right. Vietnam, Cambodia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Korea and that's just the US.
France.... Algeria, Indochina
UK...going back a bit Iran, Suez, more recently anything the US gets up to.
And let us not forget WW1, France, Britain, Germany were all democracies.

Yeah right we don't like war it's unpopular.
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Democracies these days don’t like the horrors of war - we don’t mind seeing the missiles flying off, especially at night because it looks ace, but we don’t want to see what they do when they land.
 
metalblue said:
Is the right answer for me. Ukraine can become a successful economy and free society - it has all the ingredients if it can sort out corruption. It will make people ask questions in mother Russia about how Ukraine can prosper but Russia can’t. Seize their assets, seize their opportunity and carry on the corruption merry go round.
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But it won't Russia, since 1993 Russia has been in wars on it's borders, it has reinforced Russian militaristic mindset and belief in a strong state protecting it from interference form outsiders.

This is why you see when there are pro democracy or anti putin protest in russia they are easily put down from authority and civilain puplic opinion vastly against them.

I mean look at the last few years here and how fucked up our countrys been since the same tactics of promoting soviegnty and rhetoric about foriegn interference, it left us with a **** runing the place, iand government breaking laws all over the shop. The promise of a strong nation is a great tactic to gain support amongst the people and Putin and his aides are good at pushing the right buttons when necessary to keep their political model strongly routed

Ukraine being a free democracy won't be a threat to his power, but it will be a humiliation to his legacy.
 
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metalblue said:
Democracies these days don’t like the horrors of war - we don’t mind seeing the missiles flying off, especially at night because it looks ace, but we don’t want to see what they do when they land.
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Plus it’s only happened once that a democracy has declared war on another democracy.

Can anyone guess which were the two? (Germany 1914 was not a democracy despite Robbieh’s assertion that it was)
 
urban genie said:
But it won't Russia, since 1993 Russia has been in wars on it's borders, it has reinforced Russian militaristic mindset and belief in a strong state protecting it from interference form outsiders.

This is why you see when there are pro democracy or anti putin protest in russia they are easily put down from authority and civilain puplic opinion vastly against them.

I mean look at the last few years here and how fucked up our countrys been since the same tactics of promoting soviegnty and rhetoric about foriegn interference, it left us with a **** runing the place, iand government breaking laws all over the shop. The promise of a strong nation is a great tactic to gain support amongst the people and Putin and his aides are good at pushing the right buttons when necessary to keep their political model strongly routed

Ukraine beeing a free democracy won't be a threat to his power, but it will be a humiliation to his legacy.
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That’s a great summary.

As you point out Ukraine needs peace to encourage development of its resources and the world is slowly starting to shift away from fossil fuels so time is not on their side. Thatcher called it the peace premium (or something similar) - although she was referring to the end of the Cold War and nations not having to spend money on weapons and the such - something that doesn’t seem to appeal to a flag waving Johnson with his borderline nationalist tendencies but I digress.

It does seem unlikely Ukraine will get any peace to realise its potential. 40m people failed for the insecurities of one man - history will judge him badly assuming our politicians don’t vaporise us all in the meantime of course.
 
SWP's back said:
Plus it’s only happened once that a democracy has declared war on another democracy.

Can anyone guess which were the two? (Germany 1914 was not a democracy despite Robbieh’s assertion that it was)
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To be honest, neither was the UK before 1929 when more than half the adult population were not allowed to vote.
 
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