Russian invasion of Ukraine

[bluemoon32]

Worrying time.
I do wish Boris would step away though and just let the big boys talk

 

[carlosthejackal]

Has Putin broke international law in a specific and limited way?

 

[robbieh]

We went because the Falklands is a British overseas territory and your attempt to equate what we did and what Putin is doing is laughable.

I wasn't trying to equate them. I honestly wanted to hear why the situations are different.

 

[BobKowalski]

Does anyone really care about the Ukrainians? I mean all the bluster about the poor Ukranians etc its quite disingenuous isnt it? We're there to spread Western values right onto the doorstep of Russia. Surely? Or am I going to get called a commie or Putin Sympathizer to stifle any conversation?

I think the Ukrainians care. Russian isn’t communist, it’s a right wing authoritarian state.

As for Western values, it seems the Ukrainians are rather keen on them and would rather like to have economic prosperity and the security of NATO membership.

Their country, their choice.

 

[Metal Biker]

Does anyone really care about the Ukrainians? I mean all the bluster about the poor Ukranians etc its quite disingenuous isnt it? (From the governments of the world). We're there to spread Western values right onto the doorstep of Russia. Surely? Or am I going to get called a commie or Putin Sympathizer to stifle any conversation?

No, it genuinely isn't. Ukraine wants to join NATO and adopt those western values willingly, nobody is forcing them to do anything, especially not the West.

 

[BobKowalski]

Has Putin broke international law in a specific and limited way?

Naughty.

 

[inbetween]

Has Putin broke international law in a specific and limited way?

Yes, he broke the law with the continued occupation of Georgia, he broke the law with the annexation of Crimea and he broke the law when his separatist backed thugs took Donbas.

He's now using the defence of the latter separatists as a pretext to send in the Russian army into another country.

Imagine sending armed fellas bearing no uniform into a country, they take a region and then you recognise that region as independent so you send in your army to defend the fellas with no uniform.... That's what's happening.

 

[Metal Biker]

Has Putin broke international law in a specific and limited way?

Annexation is unlawful under international law, and he already broke that with Crimea and looks likely to do it again with Donbass.

 

[robbieh]

At the 2001 Ukrainian National Census, the ethnic groups within the Donetsk Oblast were: Ukrainians – 2,744,100 (56.9%), Russians – 1,844,400 (38.2%), Pontic Greeks – 77,500 (1.6%), Belarusians – 44,500 (0.9%), others (2.3%).

In Luhansk it was 58% Ukrainian and 39% Russian.

There may well be a Russian majority now due to Ukrainians fleeing over the last 7 years.

As for the Falklands it was and still is internationally recognised as a sovereign UK territory. The Donbas is anything but sovereign Russian territory.

Thanks for that explanation. Obviously two different scenarios.

 

[SPIDERBOY]

Two Ukrainian soldiers have been killed by shelling overnight and 12 more were injured, according to Ukraine’s Joint Forces Operation situation report published this morning.

The report says Ukraine recorded 84 violations over the past 24 hours from Russia-backed forces, 64 of which were using weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements.

As a result of the shelling, two Ukrainian service personnel died from shrapnel wounds while 12 service personnel were injured and are receiving treatment, Ukraine’s ministry of defence added.

 

[mexico1970]

Two Ukrainian soldiers have been killed by shelling overnight and 12 more were injured, according to Ukraine’s Joint Forces Operation situation report published this morning.

The report says Ukraine recorded 84 violations over the past 24 hours from Russia-backed forces, 64 of which were using weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements.

As a result of the shelling, two Ukrainian service personnel died from shrapnel wounds while 12 service personnel were injured and are receiving treatment, Ukraine’s ministry of defence added.

What I fine disconcerting is that it's hard to tell what the real news is, it's all spin or propaganda. The news you posted may very well be true, the reader nowadays has no way to tell.

 

[BobKowalski]

None of that enables Russia to invade Ukraine though does it? Nor has it influenced the UK response.

It does. If the calculation is that the West facilitates Russian money or needs its resources, then any response to an invasion will be tempered by these factors. We are still taking Russian money despite the murder of a UK citizen on UK soil, the invasion of Crimea and the effective annexation of Belarus and any number of other provocations. Germany is still hooked on Russian gas.

The fact we are now talking about ‘taking tough action’ makes you wonder what exactly we have been doing up to now (other than talking that is).

 

[SPIDERBOY]

What I fine disconcerting is that it's hard to tell what the real news is, it's all spin or propaganda. The news you posted may very well be true, the reader nowadays has no way to tell.

True.

 

[inbetween]

It does. If the calculation is that the West facilitates Russian money or needs its resources, then any response to an invasion will be tempered by these factors. We are still taking Russian money despite the murder of a UK citizen on UK soil, the invasion of Crimea and the effective annexation of Belarus and any number of other provocations. Germany is still hooked on Russian gas.

The fact we are now talking about ‘taking tough action’ makes you wonder what exactly we have been doing up to now (other than talking that is).

I think it's wrong to say we haven't tried or been successful in hitting Russia where it hurts.

 

[metalblue]

All true, however Johnson has made the U.K. pretty much irrelevant on the world stage unless he’s prepared to do something about Russian money in London. The key players in the response to Putin are the US, EU and NATO.

Thats not the case. You seemingly don’t appreciate how important London is in the global financial markets. The key players in regard financial sanctions are the US and the UK, the EU is the least important of the trio. The US alone is effective, the UK+US is very very effective, the EU+UK+US is marginally better (but better). Given this invasion was signposted I expect a unified and aligned response in the first instance.

And to those saying sanctions against Russia won’t matter due to China… sanctions don’t work like that - if the west are serious and want to really enforce them then they will then hit Chinese firms/government (or anyone else) that breaches the sanctions by supporting Russia. The flip side is it hurts us as well so let’s see how much appetite the west has. Moreover sanctions are effective in attacking Putins power base - the reason the oligarchs deposited/ invested money in London was it was considered a safe jurisdiction - there is half a trillion pounds worth of Russian company shares - that are vital to the Russian economy - traded in London. For context that is 10x what Russia spends on its military. Russian firms raise billions on London markets although that has switched to Moscow more recently - but we can shut off their supply to global markets. There are non-Russian companies that operate in Russia on top of that. The US then take the banks out of the global settlement system for dollars and the Russian economies access to money is about to shut down, inflation and real hardship for the Russian people will follow.
Now exports is definitely something that the EU can come into their own on and really hurt Russia - probably to equivalence of the UK in terms of financial sanctions. The EU can be far more effective here than both the US and UK combined; the EU is effective, EU+US very effective, and EU+US+UK marginally more effective. If China joined in banning exports it would cripple Russia but that’s highly unlikely - albeit traceability may play a part in limiting Chinese exports that have origins in Russia if EU and US wanted to play hardball.

Putin was warned. He probably won’t give a fuck however because he’s a mental ****.

 

[west didsblue]

It does. If the calculation is that the West facilitates Russian money or needs its resources, then any response to an invasion will be tempered by these factors. We are still taking Russian money despite the murder of a UK citizen on UK soil, the invasion of Crimea and the effective annexation of Belarus and any number of other provocations. Germany is still hooked on Russian gas.

The fact we are now talking about ‘taking tough action’ makes you wonder what exactly we have been doing up to now (other than talking that is).

The new Cold War is alive and well and has been ongoing for at least 10 years, and so far it's only the Russians who have taken it seriously. Trump and Brexit were strongly backed by Russia through their proxies in the West and we've done fuck all about it. Brexit's biggest backer, Arron Banks, has broken cover and is openly supporting Putin. Trump spent four years backing Putin over his own intelligence services. Germany managed to fuck themselves by shutting down their nuclear industry after Fukushima and becoming totally dependent on Russian gas for their energy needs. Putin must have pissed himself laughing when that happened. It's left the western alliance divided and weak with few options to help Ukraine other than rhetoric and a few sanctions that Putin won't give a shit about.

 

[metalblue]

It does. If the calculation is that the West facilitates Russian money or needs its resources, then any response to an invasion will be tempered by these factors. We are still taking Russian money despite the murder of a UK citizen on UK soil, the invasion of Crimea and the effective annexation of Belarus and any number of other provocations. Germany is still hooked on Russian gas.

The fact we are now talking about ‘taking tough action’ makes you wonder what exactly we have been doing up to now (other than talking that is).

It doesn’t. You’d naturally think the opposite - Russian investments in London creates connectivity and trade - the very things the EU say has kept peace in Europe.

I do agree with the rest of your post - we were a little half arsed after Crimea, we avoided pretty much anything that damaged the interests of the west. Now let’s see how much pain we are willing to take abs for how long…

 

[BobKowalski]

I think it's wrong to say we haven't tried or been successful in hitting Russia where it hurts.

I think we have hit the Russian economy, the argument is have we hurt the people who matter, rather than just your average man in the street.

What is clear, whatever we have done so far has not deterred the people who matter from pursuing an aggressive nationalist agenda otherwise we would not be having this discussion in this thread.

 

[west didsblue]

Thats not the case. You seemingly don’t appreciate how important London is in the global financial markets. The key players in regard financial sanctions are the US and the UK, the EU is the least important of the trio. The US alone is effective, the UK+US is very very effective, the EU+UK+US is marginally better (but better). Given this invasion was signposted I expect a unified and aligned response in the first instance.

And to those saying sanctions against Russia won’t matter due to China… sanctions don’t work like that - if the west are serious and want to really enforce them then they will then hit Chinese firms/government (or anyone else) that breaches the sanctions by supporting Russia. The flip side is it hurts us as well so let’s see how much appetite the west has. Moreover sanctions are effective in attacking Putins power base - the reason the oligarchs deposited/ invested money in London was it was considered a safe jurisdiction - there is half a trillion pounds worth of Russian company shares - that are vital to the Russian economy - traded in London. For context that is 10x what Russia spends on its military. Russian firms raise billions on London markets although that has switched to Moscow more recently - but we can shut off their supply to global markets. There are non-Russian companies that operate in Russia on top of that. The US then take the banks out of the global settlement system for dollars and the Russian economies access to money is about to shut down, inflation and real hardship for the Russian people will follow.
Now exports is definitely something that the EU can come into their own on and really hurt Russia - probably to equivalence of the UK in terms of financial sanctions. The EU can be far more effective here than both the US and UK combined; the EU is effective, EU+US very effective, and EU+US+UK marginally more effective. If China joined in banning exports it would cripple Russia but that’s highly unlikely - albeit traceability may play a part in limiting Chinese exports that have origins in Russia if EU and US wanted to play hardball.

Putin was warned. He probably won’t give a fuck however because he’s a mental ****.

I did say that we are are irrelevant as long as we are not prepared to do anything about Russian money in London. Sounds like you agree with me. The question is are we prepared to act? With Johnson in charge I suspect it will be more hot air than substance.

 

[west didsblue]

I think we have hit the Russian economy, the argument is have we hurt the people who matter, rather than just your average man in the street.

What is clear, whatever we have done so far has not deterred the people who matter from pursuing an aggressive nationalist agenda otherwise we would not be having this discussion in this thread.

Exactly.
An affluent Russian population is more of a threat to Putin than a struggling Russian population. The oligarchs have stayed rich and poor have got poorer. That works well for Putin.