Russian invasion of Ukraine

[metalblue]

Sounds slightly comforting. But not very. Russia has around 6,800 nuclear weapons, and even if they only launched 10% of them and only 1% of those made it through to their targets, that's still 68 nuclear strikes and hundreds of millions of lives lost.

And worse, I am reminded of van Moltke's quote: "No plan survives first contact with the enemy".

@metalblue - you are spot on with your last paragraph above:

I hope the talks can bring an end to this, they need to be able to give Putin something he can sell - such as joint governance of the disputed eastern regions - not great but sometimes you have to be pragmatic. The west/NATO needs to look at their relationship with Russia and find common ground and work from there. Putin won’t last forever and doesn’t represent the Russian people, we just need to swallow deeply, hold our noses, smile sweetly at him and be nice once the fighting stops and an agreement that is acceptable to Ukraine is found. In the meantime we need to continue to support Ukraine and not pay any attention to Putins rantings, honestly if he wanted to make a nuclear strike he wouldn’t have broadcast it on TV - he sees the west as weak (or did until a couple of days ago) and it’s for the benefit of the flappers to try and create disunity.

Russia has about 400 ICBMs that are estimated to carry about 1200 warheads.

Obviously depending on targets it is estimated that one warhead kills 150,000 and injures 93,000. If all got through it would mean about 204m people are killed and 130m are injured in the west probably less for Russia given its sheer size and population distribution although most are on the western side. So you have a 21% chance of dying and 13% chance of being injured in the west and probably 70+% chance of being wiped out if you are in Russia. Although modern missiles are far more accurate so instead of targeting cities for value they are just as likely to target military installations which would significantly reduce that - estimated to be between 51-88m deaths for the west and Russia. Obviously life will be pretty shit for those that survive for some time so let’s hope we can stop arguing over borders and start agreeing over humanity.

 

[Northblue]

Don't mention the B word.

And certainly don't mention where the Leave campaign got its money from.

And don't mention the Russia report.

And don't even think about mentioning why it played into Russia's interests for Britain to withdraw from the EU.

Foundations of Geopolitics - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

• The United Kingdom, merely described as an "extraterritorial floating base of the U.S.", should be cut off from Europe.[9]
• Russia should use its special services within the borders of the United States to fuel instability and separatism, for instance, provoke "Afro-American racists". Russia should "introduce geopolitical disorder into internal American activity, encouraging all kinds of separatism and ethnic, social and racial conflicts, actively supporting all dissident movements – extremist, racist, and sectarian groups, thus destabilizing internal political processes in the U.S. It would also make sense simultaneously to support isolationisttendencies in American politics".[9]
• Ukraine should be annexed by Russia because "Ukraine as a state has no geopolitical meaning, no particular cultural import or universal significance, no geographic uniqueness, no ethnic exclusiveness, its certain territorial ambitions represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics". Ukraine should not be allowed to remain independent, unless it is cordon sanitaire, which would be inadmissible.[9]

 

[Cheadle_hulmeBlue]

Javelin and NLAW’s are decimating an invasion force that is literally thick as pig shit, sat in long stationary columns waiting to be hit and those vehicles are filled with soldiers.

Russia is taking a bit of a pasting here imo.

It’s hard to know what to believe - ie numbers of Russians killed

it seems like they are holding back most of their forces for now

 

[feedmpenzaandhewillscore]

Russia and Belarus might be the two countries who carry the Rus name, but it’s Ukraine that is the historic homeland, and Kyiv which is the capital city, of the Rus people. I doubt even Putin wants to cause too much destruction to Ukraine or level Kyiv.

Maybe I’m wrong and in the next weeks, months, or years, Ukraine and Kyiv could be rubble since Putin is a monster. But for all other Rus people across the three Rus countries, they’d be devastated with the devastation of the Rus homeland.

Kyiv is important to Putin due to his religious beliefs which he has turned more too in the past few years, Vladimir The Great who is seen as the father of Orthodox Church is buried in Kyiv. Some of those religious sites will be important to Putin and he will want them to remain intact as much as possible.

 

[Tuearts right boot]

Time to get some money in BAE and General Dynamics eh ??

 

[west didsblue]

Time to get some money in BAE and General Dynamics eh ??

You might have missed the boat. BAE up 20% in the last week!

 

[JASR]

Foundations of Geopolitics - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

• The United Kingdom, merely described as an "extraterritorial floating base of the U.S.", should be cut off from Europe.[9]
• Russia should use its special services within the borders of the United States to fuel instability and separatism, for instance, provoke "Afro-American racists". Russia should "introduce geopolitical disorder into internal American activity, encouraging all kinds of separatism and ethnic, social and racial conflicts, actively supporting all dissident movements – extremist, racist, and sectarian groups, thus destabilizing internal political processes in the U.S. It would also make sense simultaneously to support isolationisttendencies in American politics".[9]
• Ukraine should be annexed by Russia because "Ukraine as a state has no geopolitical meaning, no particular cultural import or universal significance, no geographic uniqueness, no ethnic exclusiveness, its certain territorial ambitions represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics". Ukraine should not be allowed to remain independent, unless it is cordon sanitaire, which would be inadmissible.[9]

Ta for link.

it’s like reading recent history.
no wonder putin was confident about Ukraine , he’s achieved all before - weaken uk from Europe, weaken Europe, divide to the nth degree the US.

 

[Tuearts right boot]

Russia has about 400 ICBMs that are estimated to carry about 1200 warheads.

Obviously depending on targets it is estimated that one warhead kills 150,000 and injures 93,000. If all got through it would mean about 204m people are killed and 130m are injured in the west probably less for Russia given its sheer size and population distribution although most are on the western side. So you have a 21% chance of dying and 13% chance of being injured in the west and probably 70+% chance of being wiped out if you are in Russia. Although modern missiles are far more accurate so instead of targeting cities for value they are just as likely to target military installations which would significantly reduce that - estimated to be between 51-88m deaths for the west and Russia. Obviously life will be pretty shit for those that survive for some time so let’s hope we can stop arguing over borders and start agreeing over humanity.

Can we make sure the League is mathematically ours beforehand then. Pep In.

 

[jaseirai]

Russia has about 400 ICBMs that are estimated to carry about 1200 warheads.

Obviously depending on targets it is estimated that one warhead kills 150,000 and injures 93,000. If all got through it would mean about 204m people are killed and 130m are injured in the west probably less for Russia given its sheer size and population distribution although most are on the western side. So you have a 21% chance of dying and 13% chance of being injured in the west and probably 70+% chance of being wiped out if you are in Russia. Although modern missiles are far more accurate so instead of targeting cities for value they are just as likely to target military installations which would significantly reduce that - estimated to be between 51-88m deaths for the west and Russia. Obviously life will be pretty shit for those that survive for some time so let’s hope we can stop arguing over borders and start agreeing over humanity.

On the bright side, there'd be no need to worry about global warming any more

 

[Blue Mist]

Agreed.

But, you shouldn’t get kudos for getting a round in once every three trips to the pub!

Ahhh, have you seen the stick I get on here ? is that where I am going wrong. ?

 

[Gray]

errr - if now is not the right time to facilitate Ukrainian refugee's when will be? My daughter went to Uni with a Polish lass - her family can take in a refugee and their dog no questions asked.....why at this moment of high alert do we require proof of salary or suggest they try to qualify as fruit pickers? Inhumane madness

I am all for taking in the Ukranians as they are genuine refugees.

 

[domalino]

It’s hard to know what to believe - ie numbers of Russians killed

it seems like they are holding back most of their forces for now

You’re right it’s very hard to believe anything.

If Ukraine’s numbers are true 1 in 30 of Russias entire invasion force is dead or injured.

Sounds too good to be true (for want of a better expression), doesn’t it?

 

[ell]

The West should be sending as many of these as possible, the yanks can fly them from thousands of miles away in their own country whilst over a war zone. Badge them up as Ukrainian whilst they discretely fly them from North Dakota. If the tank conveys are being picked off with death from above it will have the Russian army asking why the hell they are there.

Isn't that a war crime? Or does that only count if its soldiers/uniforms?

 

[Blue Maverick]

If it were not for the suffering of innocent Ukrainians then it would be a great thing. As you say, he has single handedly managed to force closer European ties and likely reinforce NATO than any other person in the last 30 years.

I might re enlist if they re open the German bases again had a great 7 years on the piss there, I’d happily see my days out living there.

 

[Scottyboi]

I might re enlist if they re open the German bases again had a great 7 years in the puss there, I’d happily see my days out living there.

Lad I know rejoined a couple of months back at 32, thought he would get a few quiet years in haha.

 

[marco]

Abramovich at the peace talks report sky

 

[shemnel]

I dont think Putin and co will simply stand down, and surely not many people do, but they will absolutely see EU/US/UK munitions supply into Ukraine as justification for their 'operation' in the region, in that it has to become a de-militarised state (from a Putin perspective, you understand). I think that supply will be a huge sticking point at the talks. I was really coming around to Putin being toppled by those close to him but now i am not so sure (hope it is the case).

 

[west didsblue]

You’re right it’s very hard to believe anything.

If Ukraine’s numbers are true 1 in 30 of Russias entire invasion force is dead or injured.

Sounds too good to be true (for want of a better expression), doesn’t it?

That's double the number of US troops lost in Afghanistan over 20 years, and that's 4 days in!
If those numbers are anywhere near real and not just propaganda there's only two ways this can go. End of Putin or it goes WMD.

 

[Citizen of Legoland]

Abramovich at the peace talks report sky

He's gone to collect Kepa's ball back.

 

[bluethrunthru]

He might have it in his mind that the main reason people voted Brexit was because of East European immigration.

But we are assured - mostly by those who voted Leave - that was the furthest reason away from what was in their minds