Russian invasion of Ukraine

Chippy_boy said:
Not meaning to single you out, but replying with a more general point...

I understand everyone wants to see the weedy kid standing up to the school bully and giving him a bloody nose. Of course we want to see Putin turning around and pulling out.

But realistically, this is just not going to happen. Admirable - hugely admirable and courageous though the Ukrainian resistance may be - I honestly think it's futile. The longer it goes on, the more lives are lost, injuries sustained, buildings destroyed.

I am afraid I think there can be only one outcome here (sadly). No matter how well intentioned, I think the west's efforts to prop up the Ukrainian defence are ultimately just making it worse.
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Unfortunately that is one of the realities, if not the most seemingly likely one.
 
We have sarted a financial war. Depends how desperate they get. Don't think Putins generals or oligarchs are happy with their boss. Only issue is he doesn't use door handles.
 
KnaresboroughBlue said:
They were going to get invaded regardless of any NATO application. Their only way to avoid that would have been to elect a pro-Putin puppet.
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Maybe they were. Maybe not. We won't know now.

Personally, I think a guarantee of no NATO membership for 10 years (carrot) and well articulated tangible threat of hard sanctions and how it would be much worse for Putin personally (stick) would have worked.
 
If Putin does intend to reestablish the USSR then we may regret not attacking now.

It’s speculation on my part but if we are indeed in WW3, trying to be reasonable and placing sanctions is falling short. Hopefully the west have made the correct decisions and avoided all out conflict.

Putins aim is not yet clear. How many people would be ok with Russia taking Ukraine if it stopped a world war?
 
Gremlin said:
It depends what you are trying to achieve. Iraq and Afghanistan were initially successful (i.e. the regimes in power were dislodged) but it was what happened after that, because there wasn't a clear plan, that defined the final legacy. Even if Russia is initially successful at dislodging the Ukrainian government (which is by no means certain at this stage) they will have great difficulty dictating events after that.
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That's my take. They've created something much bigger to handle than Afghanistan, AND they're going to be poorer for it with all the sanctions and bad will there is now towards them

Putin has fucked up imo, which makes it more dangerous maybe.
 
domalino said:
Bluesteel, you need to look up Alexander Dugin and his political theories because Putin is a known believer in them and he spelled that out in his speeches before.

Putin does not believe Ukraine or Belarus are real countries, he thinks they are part of Russia that was opportunistically cut off the motherland in the fall of the USSR and that the future of the Russian state depends on them being reunified.

It has nothing to do with NATO.

In fact, you may have heard of this article that was accidentally published on Russian state news website that was meant to be kept back until the war was won.



This thread has the full translation but I’ve quote tweeted the two relevant ones. It’s not about NATO and it never has been.



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I’ll read through all that later, there’s a lot of propaganda on both sides at the minute.
 
mosssideblue said:
Then we don't support democracy
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Admirable sentinent, but not the first time it has been applied. That has generally been the way of it, and is there to stop any old conflict from becoming a worldwide one. This one just happens to be on a big scale and one with further reaching consequences.
 
Gorton_Tubster said:
Tbh that's my take on it too. The Russians don't want nato on their doorstep. I don't think it's fair to say it was caused by the West or by America because the Ukrainian people democratically elected to be closer to Europe than Russia. Putin himself said (in his propaganda piece on Ukraine a couple of years ago) the people of Ukraine must decide themselves if they want to continue the historic kinship between Russia and Ukraine.

I think an analogy is Russia wanting nukes next door to America, in Cuba. It doesn't play well with the superpowers. (Though Cuba wasn't a democracy and didn't really choose to be closer to Russia)

I think Germany had accepted that world view, ie that Russia wouldn't want / allow Ukraine to be part of nato and for Russia to have the enemies nukes on their doorstep. In effect it might cause a war itself.

So the west have pushed/brought/encouraged democracy too close to Russia (in Russian eyes) and so Russia have invaded them.

So what do you think?
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My take is that its complex. It's clearly not ALL about NATO membership, because as others have pointed out, he has NATO members on his border already. But equally the NATO piece should not be dismissed. Putin himself has said that he feared that were Ukraine to join NATO and subsequently try to take back Crimea, then he would not be able to protect Crimea without starting WW3. A strangely rational argument for a supposed madman.

But I am sure @domalino is also right about Putin's genuine belief that Ukraine "belongs" in Russia. It's not a coincidence that he invaded Ukraine and not e.g. Finland.
 
Chippy_boy said:
My take is that its complex. It's clearly not ALL about NATO membership, because as others have pointed out, he has NATO members on his border already. But equally the NATO piece should not be dismissed. Putin himself has said that he feared that were Ukraine to join NATO and subsequently try to take back Crimea, then he would not be able to protect Crimea without starting WW3. A strangely rational argument for a supposed madman.

But I am sure @domalino is also right about Putin's genuine belief that Ukraine "belongs" in Russia. It's not a coincidence that he invaded Ukraine and not e.g. Finland.
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They tried Finland before, it didn't work out well.
 
Chippy_boy said:
I don't think there's any thankfully about it. And BTW, I was not suggesting we should not have supported Ukraine and even that we should stop now. I am merely countering some of the gung-ho attitudes on here with a sense of realism.
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too many people are believing the tweets, we are seeing the ukrainian side of things, they will be showing the heroics, the facts are the russian invading forces out number them and have better fire power, forget the 40 million people taking up arms its not happening on that scale, there will be some , but civilians with guns v trained soldiers don't stand a chance , as soon as russia get air control this war wont last 2 more days , ukraine are fucked , its fucking horrendous ,and i hope we keep these sanctions going until russia are back in the dark age and won't be able to do this ever again.
 
The Russian forces are in old clapped out equipment. Their solders are conscripted and don't want to be their. A conventional Nato response would waste that army in a week. Putin is hiding behind his Nuclear weapons.
 
domalino said:
It wasn't a big enough issue to invade someone.

Stop regurgitating Putin's bullshit excuses for war.
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Eh? Have a word with yourself. I said it's been known for a while Putin wasn't happy with NATO's expansion, I didn't say it justifies it in any way shape or form. The man is a murdering ****.
 
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