Russian invasion of Ukraine

[BigJoe#1]

Given time, your average Russian, when they can no longer afford to live, will turn

Sadly, this is the most effective least conflict way of dealing with the meglamaniac.

All I can add is the sooner we can apply the maximum economic pressure peacefully the better. Every single interaction with Russia should be ceased.

 

[Coatigan]

Totally agree with that. I just find some opinions that if we can just hold out a bit longer Putin will just pack up and go home, staggeringly naive.

The only way he stops this is when there's something he can "sell" to his electorate.

I think if the invasion went as quickly as he anticipated, I would agree. He would have got to have shown what he can do, and would have the bargaining position to then give up and take what he wants.

Now, i'd say Domalino is (currently) right unfortunately. Any possoble compromise is now at opposite ends.

The only way it shifts back towards a middle is through sustained losses as this drags on, unfortunately to both sides. And more frustration amongst both sets of public and the world in general.


The thing is, the longer it goes on, the longer the natural 'why is the west doing nothing here' feelingd will add a level of frustration and complexity too, which will unfortunately muddy the long term outcome and feelings in Ukraine.

 

[mosssideblue]

Sadly, this is the most effective least conflict way of dealing with the meglamaniac.

All I can add is the sooner we can apply the maximum economic pressure peacefully the better. Every single interaction with Russia should be ceased.

Only hope the nutter doesn't feel the need to go down in a blaze of glory

 

[meltonblue]

25 sanctioned across the whole EU vs 11 within just one country.

Not sure I understand your point here? That’s 25 sanctioned in every EU country

 

[BobKowalski]

We could be for individual countries.

I don’t really care tho as long as it’s a unified response by the West.

We’re not. European countries and US have applied wider sanctions to more people and entities than the UK. Our point of weakness is the City and Russian money. We didn’t even put Sberbank on the sanctioned list last time I looked.

 

[Dave Ewing's Back 'eader]

EU and UK exploring alternative supplies. Germany building three LNG terminals. Ultimately, they must make exclusion from Swift complete.

Didn't Merkel mothball umpteen nuclear reactors that are just ticking over, ready for further use!

 

[SamBlue]

...We have an island mentality here regarding all borders as hard lines. The reality elsewhere is more fluid I suppose - Ukraine for example they probably regard themselves as pretty Russian in the east and more European in the west

I am not sure that is true, this is what Putin is trying to do all over the place, contest the borders and introduce inter-ethnic issues between people, then bring in his own army and act as a 'peace-keeper'. His biggest allies are in the West Balkans, namely Serbia and their politicians who fucked up Yugoslavia in the same manner. My cousin's wife was born in Donetsk (very much east) to a Russian speaking father and Ukrainian speaking mother and she's been banging on for years to me that Putin was going to do this. It is just that we in the west don't have appetite to confront him and justifications are easy to find not to get involved.
I cannot believe I am saying this, but Johnson for once has a semblance of the serious politician!

 

[Gremlin]

Maybe worth thinking about medium term possible outcomes:

1. Putin puppet regime in whole of Ukraine

2. Partitioned Ukraine, puppet regime in Eastern portion

3. Russia retreats in defeat, Zelinskiy democratic govt across whole of sovereign Ukraine

Bearing in mind that we've had a form of (2) in place for many years already, (3) in its entirety seems very, very unlikely

2. seems most likely at present, with Putin declaring that the 'special military operation' (TM) has achieved it's aims, conveniently never having explicitly stated what those aims are, probably after he has concluded that their in it for the long haul and have no way of taking the whole country. The question is, how much of Ukraine will they have at that point (my guess is a land bridge to Crimea and the wider area around those two eastern provinces would be minimum acceptable to him) and whether there is an ongoing insurgency in those areas thereafter.

 

[BigJoe#1]

Compromise.... is it possible?

High level strategy; Could the West agree to give Putin the parts of Ukraine he claims to be his and separate it it from the remainder. I know this would be an almost impossible task, but then to invite Ukranians to locate themselves on the side they want to live (East v West) then build another iron curtain.

Could that work?

 

[Chippy_boy]

Owen Jones in the Guardian is telling us how we really can end this. An anti war movement should do the trick. Isn’t Stop The War one of them?

Putin’s aggression makes clear the case for an anti-war movement | Owen Jones

Activists should champion Ukraine’s right to resist and an international order based on shared values and peace, says Guardian columnist Owen Jones

www.theguardian.com

Nothing too contentious in that article, but a bit rich coming from him who is a hard left socialist at best, arguably outright communist and previous supporter of the likes of Hugo Chavez.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

If any of the founding 12 articles are breached then NATO can’t exist. Article 10 states that any European country can ask to join and membership is between extra sting members (the council) and the country requesting accession. No 3rd country involvement. Or should we just unite article 5 if Putin think not attacks Estonia as well it’s only Estonia and they’ve got a fucking woman as leader so probably deserve it?

No, we should probably just say thanks but no thanks to Ukraine for the benefit of global security, while attaching heavy strings to this concession to Putin - ie he gets out and stays out.

 

[Allnightlong]

We do seem to be taking our time with the sanctions, should be much much wider than they currently are.

People making out that this is a league table of who is the best at sanctions. We have no idea of what is going on behind the scenes. I think we should be happy that things across the board are getting done.

 

[Chris B]

We do seem to be taking our time with the sanctions, should be much much wider than they currently are.

I suspect one issue is that many of the people we’d like to sanction are not only Russian but also UK citizens. Certainly it has been rumoured that Usmanov has UK citizenship (perhaps conferred as an honorary status by the UK government in more peaceful times).

Hopefully, they can be stripped of the citizenship and sanctioned but it could be a longer process.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

People making out that this is a league table of who is the best at sanctions. We have no idea of what is going on behind the scenes. I think we should be happy that things across the board are getting done.

Yep, hard to ensure they target Russia without turning into acts of self harm for ourselves or our allies.

 

[wolviedinho]

Compromise.... is it possible?

High level strategy; Could the West agree to give Putin the parts of Ukraine he claims to be his and separate it it from the remainder. I know this would be an almost impossible task, but then to invite Ukranians to locate themselves on the side they want to live (East v West) then build another iron curtain.

Could that work?

Give into a madman? He will take what he wants anyway. Ukraine is fucked. Plundered for resources and a timely reminder to the west to stop spreading east. The reality is that Russia have a lunatic in charge. You cant deal with crazy.

Ukraine will fall and the west will either have to accept it or turn a blind eye. Option 3 is going to war and that is not on the table.

Peace will only happen once putin has succeeded. Then talks will begin.

 

[mosssideblue]

Compromise.... is it possible?

High level strategy; Could the West agree to give Putin the parts of Ukraine he claims to be his and separate it it from the remainder. I know this would be an almost impossible task, but then to invite Ukranians to locate themselves on the side they want to live (East v West) then build another iron curtain.

Could that work?

Ukraine is not the west's to give

 

[BlueAnorak]

We do seem to be taking our time with the sanctions, should be much much wider than they currently are.

UK litigation with Oligarch's is the answer to this question.
Why us the EU so far behind the UK supplying Arms for the Ukrainians to defend themselves.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

I think some of the “Oh please, make this stop!” ideas are simple wishing.

Putin wants ALL of Ukraine. He wants a puppet in place, just like in Belarus, so he has an eastern buffer of “independent” dependencies that he fills with Russian military bases.

He wants ALL of the northern coast of the Black Sea, so his Med/MidEast fleet has unfettered access and US warships, etc. have to steer much clearer of Sevastopol and Odessa.

And, while he’s at it, he’d like the Baltic ELL states back as dependencies, so he has a land bridge to Kaliningrad, his only year round ice free port in N. Europe, and their coastlines.

This is not his endgame, it’s his opening gambit!

 

[Chippy_boy]

2. seems most likely at present, with Putin declaring that the 'special military operation' (TM) has achieved it's aims, conveniently never having explicitly stated what those aims are, probably after he has concluded that their in it for the long haul and have no way of taking the whole country. The question is, how much of Ukraine will they have at that point (my guess is a land bridge to Crimea and the wider area around those two eastern provinces would be minimum acceptable to him) and whether there is an ongoing insurgency in those areas thereafter.

Just putting it out there: If 2 is the most likely, might it not be better to try to negotiate that now, whilst all of Ukraine is not lost, rather than wait until Putin holds all the cards (in Ukraine)? Not least if it reduces greatly the numbers of senseless deaths?

Give him is small victory which allows him to save face. (But in reality he knows he lost and would not dare try it again). And is allowing to return to Russia, regions which actually if allowed a democratic vote of their own, might very well wish to be part of Russia, so terribly bad? If for example Luhansk and Donetsk actually WANT to be part of Russia?

 

[Chris B]

People making out that this is a league table of who is the best at sanctions. We have no idea of what is going on behind the scenes. I think we should be happy that things across the board are getting done.

True, but here is a league table of sorts for those that are interested. This is produced by an organisation with links to the former chess champion and Putin critic Gary Kasparov, who is looking to provide pressure to governments to do more.
https://fight4ukraine.com/