Slipper One
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 7 Jan 2022
- Messages
- 1,036
I don’t think Putin is unhinged or a nut job.
He had a number of reasons to want to control Ukraine, historical, economical (Oil/Gas) and the expansion of NATO. I believe the major issue in all of this was his complete miscalculation on the response of the Ukrainian Government, people and Europe/World.
I think he was fully expecting the country to roll over when faced with the might of the Russian army and also that Europe would not commit to anything meaningful in response. Those wouldn’t have been inaccurate assumptions at the time.
I think a lot of credit has to be given to Biden and Johnson on their efforts to galvanize, pressurize, motivate and kickstart Europe out of its own self interests and and the response has been surprising and welcome. At last, a somewhat unified Europe (and world). To get agreements in place for these present sanctions has been a monumental achievement and one that has to be acknowledged.
It must be a nightmare for Putin to see how he alone has galvanized Europe in a matter of days, and that’s something that will have consequences for Russia for years to come.
A lot of people comment on the fact that not enough or nothing is being done for Ukraine, but I don’t believe that is true at all. I think we’d all be amazed at what work is going on through diplomatic channels and militarily with NATO to try and resolve this. The US have Stratotankers flying 24/7 along the borders servicing NATO aircraft and they along with the UK, are providing full aerial surveillance which would be invaluable information for the Ukrainian Government and military.
There have been calls for a no-fly zone over Ukraine, along with troops on the ground and attacks on Russian positions. Accepting the present casualties, this cannot be done, because as soon as an attack is made or any Russian personnel are injured, the whole conflict escalates dramatically to a new level. The increase the casualties would be huge and it would also give Putin the justification for his actions based on NATO aggression.
The global sanctions applied at present have surprised me and will be effective, especially if more can be applied as necessary. They won’t undo what has been done, but they will affect decision making in Moscow for the future.
When these present sanctions start having a purposeful effect on the day to day Russians, the propaganda will start to lose it’s ability to misinform. From my Russian friends here, I understand that the Russian people don’t agree with this war and have a fair understanding of what is going on. (Probably more the younger generations). More would be on the streets protesting, but for the consequences and I have a huge admiration for those that are. Our genuine freedom is something we take for granted, others are not so fortunate. The older generations might be harder to enlighten as to the realities of all of this, but that will come.
So, what next?
There’s a long column of Russian military parked outside of Kyiv. Why doesn’t it simply roll right into the city? Putin could flatten it this historic city, but the longer term ramifications of that could haunt him and Russia now and forever. Or perhaps Russia doesn’t have the logistics to mount a sustained attack? Perhaps they would rather decimate other areas and use this as intimidation for talks? Surrender or be annihilated. Quite a game of poker that is.
Apart from a negotiated settlement, the other option is to remove Putin. Regardless of what many people call for, this CAN’T be done by the West, it HAS to be done internally.
Putin helped make the Oligarch’s, but they can just as easily turn on him. They have been hit with sanctions and I don’t believe that prior to this conflict, they ever thought the world would unite and implement such far reaching sanctions on their country and them as individuals. Behind the scenes negotiations will be going on regarding the removal of Putin............and remember, Putin will know this. With the shite that he has been pulling regarding nerve agents etc, then I’m not surprised that he continues to sit at the far end of a very long table........for his own security!! Nowadays he would trust no one.
Any discussions with Oligarch’s or the Elite for his removal would have to be conducted with the utmost secrecy and take time, because their every move and communication would be monitored. It would be a death sentence were they to be found out.
China will be watching all of this conflict and response very closely, especially the world’s reaction with sanctions. Whatever the outcome, Russia will be severely weakened by this, yet Europe should come out much stronger. My fear is that Europe will go back to type and its self interests, but we’ll have to wait and see.
Putin is under immense pressure, but is not insane.
However it pans out, Putin can’t be allowed to win and get what he wants from this, but also I think there has to be a way out for him where he can save face............otherwise, somehow, he is removed from his position.
Ideally, in my very simplistic view, I’d like to see Putin removed, but not replaced with more of the same. A democratic government needs to evolve. Europe is NOT Russia’s enemy, Russia is Europe’s enemy and the young emerging generations of Russia don’t want conflict and war. The old attitude needs to change and Russia be embraced into a stronger Europe/Russian ‘community’. Both would benefit. That, along with the US, would also make a strong alliance against any future Chinese ambitions.
He had a number of reasons to want to control Ukraine, historical, economical (Oil/Gas) and the expansion of NATO. I believe the major issue in all of this was his complete miscalculation on the response of the Ukrainian Government, people and Europe/World.
I think he was fully expecting the country to roll over when faced with the might of the Russian army and also that Europe would not commit to anything meaningful in response. Those wouldn’t have been inaccurate assumptions at the time.
I think a lot of credit has to be given to Biden and Johnson on their efforts to galvanize, pressurize, motivate and kickstart Europe out of its own self interests and and the response has been surprising and welcome. At last, a somewhat unified Europe (and world). To get agreements in place for these present sanctions has been a monumental achievement and one that has to be acknowledged.
It must be a nightmare for Putin to see how he alone has galvanized Europe in a matter of days, and that’s something that will have consequences for Russia for years to come.
A lot of people comment on the fact that not enough or nothing is being done for Ukraine, but I don’t believe that is true at all. I think we’d all be amazed at what work is going on through diplomatic channels and militarily with NATO to try and resolve this. The US have Stratotankers flying 24/7 along the borders servicing NATO aircraft and they along with the UK, are providing full aerial surveillance which would be invaluable information for the Ukrainian Government and military.
There have been calls for a no-fly zone over Ukraine, along with troops on the ground and attacks on Russian positions. Accepting the present casualties, this cannot be done, because as soon as an attack is made or any Russian personnel are injured, the whole conflict escalates dramatically to a new level. The increase the casualties would be huge and it would also give Putin the justification for his actions based on NATO aggression.
The global sanctions applied at present have surprised me and will be effective, especially if more can be applied as necessary. They won’t undo what has been done, but they will affect decision making in Moscow for the future.
When these present sanctions start having a purposeful effect on the day to day Russians, the propaganda will start to lose it’s ability to misinform. From my Russian friends here, I understand that the Russian people don’t agree with this war and have a fair understanding of what is going on. (Probably more the younger generations). More would be on the streets protesting, but for the consequences and I have a huge admiration for those that are. Our genuine freedom is something we take for granted, others are not so fortunate. The older generations might be harder to enlighten as to the realities of all of this, but that will come.
So, what next?
There’s a long column of Russian military parked outside of Kyiv. Why doesn’t it simply roll right into the city? Putin could flatten it this historic city, but the longer term ramifications of that could haunt him and Russia now and forever. Or perhaps Russia doesn’t have the logistics to mount a sustained attack? Perhaps they would rather decimate other areas and use this as intimidation for talks? Surrender or be annihilated. Quite a game of poker that is.
Apart from a negotiated settlement, the other option is to remove Putin. Regardless of what many people call for, this CAN’T be done by the West, it HAS to be done internally.
Putin helped make the Oligarch’s, but they can just as easily turn on him. They have been hit with sanctions and I don’t believe that prior to this conflict, they ever thought the world would unite and implement such far reaching sanctions on their country and them as individuals. Behind the scenes negotiations will be going on regarding the removal of Putin............and remember, Putin will know this. With the shite that he has been pulling regarding nerve agents etc, then I’m not surprised that he continues to sit at the far end of a very long table........for his own security!! Nowadays he would trust no one.
Any discussions with Oligarch’s or the Elite for his removal would have to be conducted with the utmost secrecy and take time, because their every move and communication would be monitored. It would be a death sentence were they to be found out.
China will be watching all of this conflict and response very closely, especially the world’s reaction with sanctions. Whatever the outcome, Russia will be severely weakened by this, yet Europe should come out much stronger. My fear is that Europe will go back to type and its self interests, but we’ll have to wait and see.
Putin is under immense pressure, but is not insane.
However it pans out, Putin can’t be allowed to win and get what he wants from this, but also I think there has to be a way out for him where he can save face............otherwise, somehow, he is removed from his position.
Ideally, in my very simplistic view, I’d like to see Putin removed, but not replaced with more of the same. A democratic government needs to evolve. Europe is NOT Russia’s enemy, Russia is Europe’s enemy and the young emerging generations of Russia don’t want conflict and war. The old attitude needs to change and Russia be embraced into a stronger Europe/Russian ‘community’. Both would benefit. That, along with the US, would also make a strong alliance against any future Chinese ambitions.
