Russian invasion of Ukraine

I live in Ukraine.

I have to say I am very surprised you've not mentioned this at all in your previous 200 posts in the thread.

Also a bit odd that you said this earlier -

Seen the price of fuel recently?

This is going to impact all of us I am afraid, it doesn't mean we are going to have tanks rolling down our streets - but more holistic impacts.

Weird thing for someone who lives in Ukraine to say.


I believe Russia has 900k active military personnel.

Yes. They aren't moving every single Russian soldier in the world into Ukraine and leaving Russia empty. The invasion force is 200k and it's outnumbered.
 
I would have expected someone who lives in Ukraine to know that Russia's invasion force of 180-200,000 is significantly less than Ukraine's 215,000 active army + 200,000 called up trained reserves. We won't mention the 60,000 new territorial guards as they're not much more than a last resort although they are freeing up trained soldiers to go elsewhere.

I don't live in Ukraine, I was posting something from a friend who a friend of a friend who lives in Ukraine.

Hence the quotes.
 
No, we get a confused, patchy sense of what is happening on the ground. I may be cautiously optimistic, but this conflict is by no means over, hence the caution.

But you cannot take a country the size of Ukraine, with a population of 45 million with 200k troops. Especially as they are facing a well equipped modern force of comparable size in the conflict area. The Russians can capture a city here and there, but is that city under their control and subdued? How many troops do they need to station per city? What is the overall strategic plan here? Is eventually levelling every city one by one going to secure any thing other than eternal enmity? Can Russia sustain the current level of losses even accounting for Ukraine over estimating them?

And that’s not even taking into account sanctions starting to bite.

In the Iraq war the Americans said they needed 300k to control it they had 50k
 
They've CHOSEN to disconnect from the world. They're even shutting down Twitter and Facebook or any other source of independent media from their own citizens to 'protect' them from 'misinformation' and reprimanding their own civilians for calling the war a war, rather than an 'operation'.

Your instance that we should all see things from the poor Russians point of view is what's "fucking retarded", to use your phrasing.
He’s said that we don’t know the real figures as both sides are manipulating the truth. Especially understandable from the Ukrainian side as they need to keep morale up.
 
Question to all the financial bods out there; with the Russian Stock Market closed, how long can the country effectively run before they face financial collapse if they're not trading?

Is this going to come down to a waiting game?
In theory Russian trade can continue forever. Economies existed before stock markets, and the majority of economic activity doesn’t require the stock market to function.

In economic terms, the stock market exists as the most efficient mechanism to allocate capital: provide funds for new businesses, provide extra funds for those that need more capital to expand, and to ensure all these capital flows are priced in terms that reflect the level of risk.

Without this critical economic function operating there will be a considerable cost, but it is a long term cost and isn’t a short term or existential event.

Obviously, the reason the market is closed is to avoid an immediate massive sell off where much of the funds released would probably end up leaving Russia entirely. The hope for Putin is that the situation will soon stabilise and markets can then reopen without any panic selling.
 
Question to all the financial bods out there; with the Russian Stock Market closed, how long can the country effectively run before they face financial collapse if they're not trading?

Is this going to come down to a waiting game?

Economies existed before the stock market.

Economies also existed, and continue to exist in some parts of the world, where a fair trade could be for example a turnip in exchange for a shag of the family goat.

This is looking more and more likely where Russia will end up.
 
Economies existed before the stock market.

Economies also existed, and continue to exist in some parts of the world, where a fair trade could be for example a turnip in exchange for a shag of the family goat.

This is looking more and more likely where Russia will end up.

Well I know where my next holiday is then.
 

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