Russian invasion of Ukraine

Very depressing analysis of potential endpoints.

Basically either the Russians subjugate Ukraine or there's a nuclear apocalypse.

No idea how realistic any of this is, no expertise to judge how likely. Seems a bit defeatist given how well Ukraine army *seems* to be doing?

www.theguardian.com

I’ve studied all the possible trajectories of this war. None are good | Christopher S Chivvis

There are two likely paths: continued escalation, potentially across the nuclear threshold, or a bitter peace imposed on a defeated Ukraine
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
domalino said:
This is an incredible amount of soldiers.




The Russians are outnumbered about 2:1 now and these soldiers are experienced and professional, not conscripts on training missions who don’t want to be there.
Click to expand...


I heard an expert say an attacker needs to outnumber a defender 3 to 1. So to be 1 to 2 is a problem. Obviously with some of the weapons available to the Russians that might not apply.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Very depressing analysis of potential endpoints.

Basically either the Russians subjugate Ukraine or there's a nuclear apocalypse.

No idea how realistic any of this is, no expertise to judge how likely. Seems a bit defeatist given how well Ukraine army *seems* to be doing?

www.theguardian.com

I’ve studied all the possible trajectories of this war. None are good | Christopher S Chivvis

There are two likely paths: continued escalation, potentially across the nuclear threshold, or a bitter peace imposed on a defeated Ukraine
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...
Sobering reading.

However this ends up, Putin and his regime need to be removed from power. I'm not talking about an attack on Moscow or some similar high visibility strategy, but the world has to do it's best to slowly suffocate his regime.
I'm sure there will be experts behind the scenes who wont be influenced by the clamour for action from the tabloids or social media, and will know best how to put such a plan in motion.
 
Gremlin said:
Depends which energy company you are talking about. Electricity and gas suppliers to the consumers are actually hurting as they have a cap on the price they can sell it to us but the price they buy it from the producers is going up and up. The producers, however, are raking it in as their costs haven't changed much but the price they can sell it at has gone through the roof (although the situation is more complicated than that as a lot of electricity and gas is traded at fixed prices sometimes years ahead of time and it is only as those contracts elapse that the full price hike will start to be felt).
Click to expand...

Abu Dhabi and the region break even on $40 a barrel of oil.

Should be at $200 before much longer.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Very depressing analysis of potential endpoints.

Basically either the Russians subjugate Ukraine or there's a nuclear apocalypse.

No idea how realistic any of this is, no expertise to judge how likely. Seems a bit defeatist given how well Ukraine army *seems* to be doing?

www.theguardian.com

I’ve studied all the possible trajectories of this war. None are good | Christopher S Chivvis

There are two likely paths: continued escalation, potentially across the nuclear threshold, or a bitter peace imposed on a defeated Ukraine
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...
Maybe it’s the fact the Ukraine is doing so well is the reason for this strand of analysis.
There are other outcomes available.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Very depressing analysis of potential endpoints.

Basically either the Russians subjugate Ukraine or there's a nuclear apocalypse.

No idea how realistic any of this is, no expertise to judge how likely. Seems a bit defeatist given how well Ukraine army *seems* to be doing?

www.theguardian.com

I’ve studied all the possible trajectories of this war. None are good | Christopher S Chivvis

There are two likely paths: continued escalation, potentially across the nuclear threshold, or a bitter peace imposed on a defeated Ukraine
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...
You with a very depressing analysis and list of outcomes? Never.

We're all still alive from the last catastrophe you envisaged.
 
metalblue said:
I heard an expert say an attacker needs to outnumber a defender 3 to 1. So to be 1 to 2 is a problem. Obviously with some of the weapons available to the Russians that might not apply.
Click to expand...
3:1 is the accepted preferable ratio in operations out in the open but in urban warfare (like the Russians trying take Kyiv) then it is usually thought to be that 5:1 is required (I'm not an expert BTW, but I do have some military training and those are the numbers that are bandied about in Infantry training courses).
 
An 11 yr old boy travelled 600 miles on his own with a passport , note from his mum and a phone number of a relative on his hand , he was sent by his mum who couldnt leave as she was looking after a bed ridden relative and has other kids , the boy made it and was looked after at the border till his relatives could come and get him , bravo to him and everyone who helped him , incredible kid
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Very depressing analysis of potential endpoints.

Basically either the Russians subjugate Ukraine or there's a nuclear apocalypse.

No idea how realistic any of this is, no expertise to judge how likely. Seems a bit defeatist given how well Ukraine army *seems* to be doing?

www.theguardian.com

I’ve studied all the possible trajectories of this war. None are good | Christopher S Chivvis

There are two likely paths: continued escalation, potentially across the nuclear threshold, or a bitter peace imposed on a defeated Ukraine
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Click to expand...

The one thing I’d say is there isn’t much discussion in there at all about the impact of sanctions and the economic aspect to it. Very difficult to war game anything with the inter connectivity of economies nowadays.
 
Protein Junkie said:
On a lighter note I read about some brave Indian lad in Ukraine who has had to survive on Protein Powder the last few days.
I pity anyone else with him. He is evidence of Ukraine having a chemical weapon.
Click to expand...
On a strange side note, I've just been trying to get some protein powder from myprotein and the price at the moment is ridiculous.
 
EU forthcoming discussions on defence and energy. Gas is still the Achilles heel.

European Parliament centre-right EPPGroup leader Weber is asking national leaders to consider an EU missile defence system at the VersaillesSummit on Thursday.

“It’s obviously better to do it together and not on national level”


‘The European Commission will shortly unveil its #RePowerEU plan to reduce dependence on Russian energy.

At least 155 bcm of fossil gas use could be ended, 2/3 of that reduction within one year.

It also contains measures to shield consumers from coming energy pain from Ukraine War‘
 
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