The Conservative Party

They are in freefall - and Johnson is out of the country for another 8 days ......... could be he left as PM and return as a back bencher

 
MillionMilesAway said:
I agree with that - letters don't get sent that early without having been planned.

It wouldn't be admitted, but there has been a fair bit of more negative stuff for Johnson since the confidence vote - the Carrie job and failure to answer the direct yes/no question, rail strikes, Mogg keeps talking.

Dowden isn't really strong enough a character for the absolute top jobs, but he'll now be out of the firing line and not have to go out defending for a while. I don't know how significant he is in terms of having the respect of the backbenches, but he may be looking to the next election and being the first (cabinet?) senior face to resign because of Johnson.
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I just don’t think there is anyone strong enough in Cabinet to throw their hat in the ring. They would probably all look around the table and view each other as equal or worse, so it’s hard to see someone breaking ranks from within, though if I were to crack open the piggy bank, I’d wager on Raab having the ambition to lead. Outside of the right, it’s virtually impossible for someone from the left of the party to mount a credible challenge.
 
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Gabriel said:
I just don’t think there is anyone strong enough in Cabinet to throw their hat in the ring. They would probably all look around the table and view each other as equal or worse, so it’s hard to see someone bt]realign ranks from within, though if I were to crack open the piggy bank, I’d wager on Raab having the ambition to lead. Outside of the right, it’s virtually impossible for someone from the left of the party to mount a credible challenge.
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Its to the detriment of the Tory Party that they elected the clown on the Get Brexit Done lie - allowed him to fill a cabinet with such a dearth of talent - then go around claiming there is nobody good enough to replace him. Pretty damning and if you are a back bencher with any pride you should take offence at being accused of lacking talent.

Like them or not there are several in the Shadow Cabinet that get mooted as possible successors to Starmer - Labour have option the Tories keep telling themselves they have none as they continue to ruin the country
 
bluethrunthru said:
Its to the detriment of the Tory Party that they elected the clown on the Get Brexit Done lie - allowed him to fill a cabinet with such a dearth of talent - then go around claiming there is nobody good enough to replace him. Pretty damning and if you are a back bencher with any pride you should take offence at being accused of lacking talent.

Like them or not there are several in the Shadow Cabinet that get mooted as possible successors to Starmer - Labour have option the Tories keep telling themselves they have none as they continue to ruin the country
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It is basically what happens when a political party moves to one extreme; the same was arguably true with Labour under Corbyn. They end up with a talent deficit and simply fill positions with people who share the same political ideology, but that is not necessarily to the country’s benefit.

The Conservatives certainly have capable people on the back benches as well, but the circumstances within the party make it incredibly difficult for there to be a successful leadership challenge. As you say, it was their decision, but to an extent, they are as much a hostage to the government now as the country is.

It is a most peculiar situation though it bizarrely bears some similarities with the situation Labour found itself in under Corbyn. It may well take a General Election defeat in 2025 to oust Johnson as well.
 
Fred_Quimby said:
Says it all about the present Cabinet. Nobody, i repeat, nobody to come forward for interview this morning. Spineless.
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Raab was on the Today programme on Radio 4.

Think Dowden’s resignation was timed so as to maximize Government embarrassment; they would all have gone to bed thinking he would be doing the morning rounds.
 
It's already becoming apparent in the Tory client media that the battle lines for the next election will be Brexit again. Johnson along with imaginary Remoaners will be blamed for not delivering the Brexit that was voted for and a new leader such as a de-lorded David Frost will be parachuted into a strongly Brexit voting constituency and he will promise sunny uplands again if only everyone votes Tory, with a warning that Brexit will be undone by anyone else and Labour will take us back to the 1970s.
 
west didsblue said:
It's already becoming apparent in the Tory client media that the battle lines for the next election will be Brexit again. Johnson along with imaginary Remoaners will be blamed for not delivering the Brexit that was voted for and a new leader such as a de-lorded David Frost will be parachuted into a strongly Brexit voting constituency and he will promise sunny uplands again if only everyone votes Tory, with a warning that Brexit will be undone by anyone else and Labour will take us back to the 1970s.
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I agree and said so a while ago. This is the only way they will get across the line.
 
west didsblue said:
It's already becoming apparent in the Tory client media that the battle lines for the next election will be Brexit again. Johnson along with imaginary Remoaners will be blamed for not delivering the Brexit that was voted for and a new leader such as a de-lorded David Frost will be parachuted into a strongly Brexit voting constituency and he will promise sunny uplands again if only everyone votes Tory, with a warning that Brexit will be undone by anyone else and Labour will take us back to the 1970s.
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That will be terribly difficult to do if the next election is in 2025. That will be nine years after the Brexit referendum and over 50 years since the 1970s; might as well make rationing and National Service issues.

Labour are playing a straight bat by saying they now want ‘to make the best of Brexit’, and even the Liberal Democrats have settled on the vague ‘closer European cooperation’, so I suspect Brexit just won’t resonate.

Parts of the media would like it to be an issue because that is in their interest, but I sense the Opposition parties realise that the Government is running out of steam and will ultimately run out of time. They cannot accelerate its downfall, so they don’t need to put forward shiny new policies, just sit back and wait. Those on the right will hate that prospect, but it’s looking ever more likely.
 
Gabriel said:
That will be terribly difficult to do if the next election is in 2025. That will be nine years after the Brexit referendum and over 50 years since the 1970s; might as well make rationing and National Service issues.

Labour are playing a straight bat by saying they now want ‘to make the best of Brexit’, and even the Liberal Democrats have settled on the vague ‘closer European cooperation’, so I suspect Brexit just won’t resonate.

Parts of the media would like it to be an issue because that is in their interest, but I sense the Opposition parties realise that the Government is running out of steam and will ultimately run out of time. They cannot accelerate its downfall, so they don’t need to put forward shiny new policies, just sit back and wait. Those on the right will hate that prospect, but it’s looking ever more likely.
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Fully agree with that. I think the Tories will do what I said but I think they will fail.
Fucking hope so anyway.
 
west didsblue said:
Fully agree with that. I think the Tories will do what I said but I think they will fail.
Fucking hope so anyway.
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I’m working on the assumption that the next General Election will not now be until January 2025, so the latest possible time, and by then the only issue will be the economy, which would traditionally be a Conservative strength.

The country is sliding into recession, however, and the war in Ukraine will be protracted, meaning food, fuel, and energy prices will remain high, could even rise further. How long that all runs into 2023-24 will dictate how much time the Government has to effect a recovery, but if the recession becomes deep, it simply won’t have long enough.
 
Gabriel said:
Raab was on the Today programme on Radio 4.

Think Dowden’s resignation was timed so as to maximize Government embarrassment; they would all have gone to bed thinking he would be doing the morning rounds.
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Having thought about things for a bit, I think this is a certainty.

My guess would have been that person or persons vented at Dowden over the previous 12 hours or so, and it's a very polite piece of revenge to do the 'honourable' thing and drop them in it, knowing that to field anyone else they'd have to get a minister up early at short notice.
 
MillionMilesAway said:
Having thought about things for a bit, I think this is a certainty.

My guess would have been that person or persons vented at Dowden over the previous 12 hours or so, and it's a very polite piece of revenge to do the 'honourable' thing and drop them in it, knowing that to field anyone else they'd have to get a minister up early at short notice.
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It had been well known inside the party for weeks that he was going to lose his position in the coming reshuffle, irrespective of last night’s results, and he would have known from inside polling how disastrous things were looking. Turns out that revenge is a dish best served cold and served before breakfast, too.
 
Just been listening to question time while being bored extracting sales data at work and only just realised that the slogan "offended by everything, embarrassed by nothing" that i frequently use when talking to Liverpool fans is equally applicable to the Tory Party
 
Sick of hearing Gary Neviille commenting on politics, it shouldn't be allowed.
Maybe he should run the country
 
Alan Harper's Tash said:
Why?

Should you only be allowed to talk about blue cricket?
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Hes a summariser for Sky but he pretends he knows everything about other stuff.
I'm not suggesting he shouldn't have opinion but he shouldn't be going to social media every time there is a bye election result, he should have some moral responsibility.
For me people who work in the media shouldn't be posting on social media.
 
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