How do we resolve the Brexit mess?

NPBlue said:
In a strange and twisted world, as we become poorer and the public wake up to the fact we have shot ourselves in the foot, rejoining the EU will probably be seen as a benefit, and not a curse.

Leaving the EU was primarily a vote from the elderly that saw our membership as a buisness arrangement that cost us, in their eyes, too much money. They didn't grasp the idea it was a successful community, working together in harmony to protect us all from the ravages of extreme political nutjobs we now find ourselves being governed by.

'Ooh' the leavers wailed. 'it's costing us £7B a year', and the big red bus went around saying '£350 a week to the NHS' with the rest of their campaigners coming out with their claptrap like 'we'll take back control', 'a deal with the EU will be the easiest in history', 'they need us more than we need them', 'only Britain and Germany are net contributors to the EU budget, and 'they'll miss our money......'.

All of it was absolute bullshit, and saying we would lose control of our monetary policy if we had the Euro as our currency is just as much a fantasy as Jacob Rees-Mogg saying prices would come down after we had left the EU.

The EU exists to help countries, not punish them, and why is it, out of all the countries that belong to the wealthiest, most prosperous economic area in the world, and appreciate the benefits its membership brings, did we see it differently?

It's because the tories like being tories, they detest the idea of socialism, and they, along with the MSM, well and truly aided and abetted by Boris Johnson writing his garbage in The Telegrph about Prawn Cocktail crisps or bent bananas being banned, always held sway without any mature discussion regarding the positives our membership brought.

Yes, I voted to remain, because for the life of me I couldn't think of a single aspect of how my life had been adversely affected by our membership. Others saw it differently, and voted to leave. They quoted the £7B year membership fee but in a country spending £860B a year it was less than the contingency fund for emergency expeniture our sovereign and independent government thought was appropriate at the time.
Click to expand...
How is it fantasy?? Here are direct quotes from the EU's website:

Who can join and when?​

All EU Member States, except Denmark, are required to adopt the euro and join the euro area. To do this they must meet certain conditions known as 'convergence criteria'.

Adopting the single currency is a crucial step in a Member State's economy. Its exchange rate is irrevocably fixed and monetary policy is transferred to the hands of the European Central Bank, which conducts it independently for the entire euro area.

economy-finance.ec.europa.eu

Who can join and when?

All EU Member States, except Denmark, are required to adopt the euro and join the euro area. To do this they must meet certain conditions known as 'convergence criteria'.
economy-finance.ec.europa.eu economy-finance.ec.europa.eu

Go back 30 years ago and the EU didn't happily grant us an exemption from the Euro because we didn't fancy it, we had to negotiate that exemption. I.E we had to negotiate that we could use our own currency whilst remaining an EU member, that right wasn't just a given. How can we therefore run a negotiation to rejoin and not accept the Euro when it's absolutely fundamental to joining? They'd take us to the cleaners and good luck selling this to the population, there's zero chance of rejoining with this reality.

I wouldn't even mention socialism because most socialists are actually pro-leave because the EU epitomises the integrated pro-business globalisation model. Just look at how Greece was treated in the aftermath of 2008 where the EU mandated austerity in exchange for central bank support. That is what would happen to us with more hyper-inflation and another run of 2008 which is probably coming over the hill.

If we rejoin the EU then I'm sorry but the socialist dream you might want is over because the simple fact is rejoining the EU requires that you relinquish control. At the moment if Corbyn got in then he'd want to print money for spending but you can't print money if your monetary demands must be combined with 27 others and then sent for approval to the ECB in Germany. As I've said, Greece tried this and they were told no you must accept what we say or get booted out of the Euro, is that what people want to vote for?

I think it's a huge mistake for folk to believe that rejoin can be successful purely because the reality is completely incompatible with what people want. At the best what people want is to return to things as before but that's impossible. This is why I think EFTA is a good route for us although I have no idea if that's even possible but who knows because no-one has tried.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
inbetween said:
This time the benefits of rejoining have to be sold and the population is highly skeptical of those so I'd say 50/50 is far more likely.
Click to expand...
No way would it be only 50/50 today; demographic changes since 2016 alone would see to that.

That said, it’s a moot point. We aren’t rejoining. We simply have to accept we’ve made a terrible mistake and will just have to try and make the most of it.
 
blueish swede said:
EFTA are Iceland (pop350k) , Liechtenstein (38k), Norway (5,5M) and the biggest member Switzerland (8,7M), they do't want the UK (70M) because it will screw up all their trade deals.
There is very little benefit to EFTA members in letting the UK join.
Click to expand...
Forget populations which is a bit irrelevant and translate that into size of economies.

Iceland - GDP: 21.71 billion USD
Liechenstein - GDP: 6.839 billion USD
Norway - GDP: 362 billion USD
Switzerland - GDP: 748 billion USD
------
UK - GDP: 2.708 trillion USD

We're not the small man in the room, we're more than twice the size of them all put together.

Why would they not want the UK in their trade group? It would give the group considerable clout meaning they all benefit.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
No way would it be only 50/50 today; demographic changes since 2016 alone would see to that.

That said, it’s a moot point. We aren’t rejoining. We simply have to accept we’ve made a terrible mistake and will just have to try and make the most of it.
Click to expand...
We'd probably need two referendums, the first to get the ball rolling and a second to ratify whatever the negotiated rejoin is.

I can see the first one being well above 50/50 in favour but definitely not the second as the reality of what we would be able to negotiate will never be accepted.

We'd just see the same cycle as we did in the leave negotiations, perpetual cherry-picking and failed negotiation.
 
It's been worse than anybody even forecast, hasn't it? The economic, cultural and reputational damage were widely predicted, as was the risk to the Good Friday Agreement and the UK, but nobody warned us we'd end up with a government catastrophically unfit for purpose.

Brexit has broken Britain. I still can't believe it.
 
inbetween said:
We'd probably need two referendums, the first to get the ball rolling and a second to ratify whatever the negotiated rejoin is.

I can see the first one being well above 50/50 in favour but definitely not the second as the reality of what we would be able to negotiate will never be accepted.

We'd just see the same cycle as we did in the leave negotiations, perpetual cherry-picking and failed negotiation.
Click to expand...
That’s fair comment mate.
 
inbetween said:
Forget populations which is a bit irrelevant and translate that into size of economies.

Iceland - GDP: 21.71 billion USD
Liechenstein - GDP: 6.839 billion USD
Norway - GDP: 362 billion USD
Switzerland - GDP: 748 billion USD
------
UK - GDP: 2.708 trillion USD

We're not the small man in the room, we're more than twice the size of them all put together.

Why would they not want the UK in their trade group? It would give the group considerable clout meaning they all benefit.
Click to expand...

Which is why the existing members don't want us to join - an economy so large with a govt who display bullying tactics and a disregard for international agreements and laws is unwelcome - they get along fine and don't want us busting through the door and trying to call all the shots - however give this lot a couple of months and we will have an economy of comparable size to the rest so then probably welcomed
 
Didsbury Dave said:
It's been worse than anybody even forecast, hasn't it? The economic, cultural and reputational damage were widely predicted, as was the risk to the Good Friday Agreement and the UK, but nobody warned us we'd end up with a government catastrophically unfit for purpose.

Brexit has broken Britain. I still can't believe it.
Click to expand...
Political instability is another thing that it has unquestionably given rise to. This is often overlooked but prior to 2016 we were an incredibly stable country politically. Now we are the most unstable country in the developed world. What’s that down to? A fucking accident?

Many people voting to leave must have said to themselves ‘what’s the worse that could happen?’

So far (because it is likely to get worse) ‘Liz Truss’ is the answer to that question.
 
inbetween said:
How is it fantasy?? Here are direct quotes from the EU's website:

Who can join and when?​

All EU Member States, except Denmark, are required to adopt the euro and join the euro area. To do this they must meet certain conditions known as 'convergence criteria'.

Adopting the single currency is a crucial step in a Member State's economy. Its exchange rate is irrevocably fixed and monetary policy is transferred to the hands of the European Central Bank, which conducts it independently for the entire euro area.

economy-finance.ec.europa.eu

Who can join and when?

All EU Member States, except Denmark, are required to adopt the euro and join the euro area. To do this they must meet certain conditions known as 'convergence criteria'.
economy-finance.ec.europa.eu economy-finance.ec.europa.eu

Go back 30 years ago and the EU didn't happily grant us an exemption from the Euro because we didn't fancy it, we had to negotiate that exemption. I.E we had to negotiate that we could use our own currency whilst remaining an EU member, that right wasn't just a given. How can we therefore run a negotiation to rejoin and not accept the Euro when it's absolutely fundamental to joining? They'd take us to the cleaners and good luck selling this to the population, there's zero chance of rejoining with this reality.

I wouldn't even mention socialism because most socialists are actually pro-leave because the EU epitomises the integrated pro-business globalisation model. Just look at how Greece was treated in the aftermath of 2008 where the EU mandated austerity in exchange for central bank support. That is what would happen to us with more hyper-inflation and another run of 2008 which is probably coming over the hill.

If we rejoin the EU then I'm sorry but the socialist dream you might want is over because the simple fact is rejoining the EU requires that you relinquish control. At the moment if Corbyn got in then he'd want to print money for spending but you can't print money if your monetary demands must be combined with 27 others and then sent for approval to the ECB in Germany. As I've said, Greece tried this and they were told no you must accept what we say or get booted out of the Euro, is that what people want to vote for?

I think it's a huge mistake for folk to believe that rejoin can be successful purely because the reality is completely incompatible with what people want. At the best what people want is to return to things as before but that's impossible. This is why I think EFTA is a good route for us although I have no idea if that's even possible but who knows because no-one has tried.
Click to expand...

Rejoining won’t happen as the EU will not vote for us to join. No one wants a rerun of the UK ‘in and out’ fan dance. The EU would prefer us on the periphery and within their economic orbit, a prospect Truss is accelerating with her economic incompetence and through the Govts warmer words towards Europe (the prospect of a tough winter means we are looking for close friends to ease the burden).

Brexit as a project is in the bin, but our only realistic path forward is to start reducing trade barriers with Europe which will mean signing up to swathes of EU regs and rules without any meaningful political say in their development. EFTA was deemed inadequate back in the day, which was why we eventually joined the EU, but EFTA or something similar is the only game left in town.

Geography dictates we have to co-exist sensibly with the EU. I think Truss will start the process and the next Govt will accelerate it.
 
Didsbury Dave said:
It's been worse than anybody even forecast, hasn't it? The economic, cultural and reputational damage were widely predicted, as was the risk to the Good Friday Agreement and the UK, but nobody warned us we'd end up with a government catastrophically unfit for purpose.

Brexit has broken Britain. I still can't believe it.
Click to expand...

I can - it was all forecast in the run up to the referendum - and it will get worse. Until the absolute clowns who voted for it have the balls to own up and publicly voice the fact that they were lied to and want revenge on the liars by ousting them from power. Until that happens we will continue in the downward spiral we are in now.
 
BobKowalski said:
Rejoining won’t happen as the EU will not vote for us to join. No one wants a rerun of the UK ‘in and out’ fan dance.
Click to expand...

This this and this - why on earth does anyone think the EU want a re-run? They have us in a perfect position to humiliate and exploit - and its a position we chose for ourselves - fucking madness
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
Political instability is another thing that it has unquestionably given rise to. This is often overlooked but prior to 2016 we were an incredibly stable country politically. Now we are the most unstable country in the developed world. What’s that down to? A fucking accident?

Many people voting to leave must have said to themselves ‘what’s the worse that could happen?’

So far (because it is likely to get worse) ‘Liz Truss’ is the answer to that question.
Click to expand...
Calling this "political instability" is like calling Erling Haaland "a decent striker". It's gone way past instability (May), has passed smoothly through incompetence (Johnson) and is now at lunacy (the dregs who are left).

A simple line traces this right back to the referendum.
 
Didsbury Dave said:
Calling this "political instability" is like calling Erling Haaland "a decent striker". It's gone way past instability (May), has passed smoothly through incompetence (Johnson) and is now at lunacy (the dregs who are left).

A simple line traces this right back to the referendum.
Click to expand...
He is a decent striker tbf!

Whatever the semantics, Pandora’s box is well and truly open.
 
bluethrunthru said:
This this and this - why on earth does anyone think the EU want a re-run? They have us in a perfect position to humiliate and exploit - and its a position we chose for ourselves - fucking madness
Click to expand...
Maybe we needed a lesson in humility as a nation.
 
Phil1 said:
There are many who certainly need to recognise that the Uks standing in the world is rather diminished to what it once was.
It’s a big problem that until addressed is likely to drag the country down further.
Click to expand...
I found the rationale of many who voted leave to be arrogant, reckless, illogical and deluded. Not all, some were/are genuinely opposed to the concept of the EU, irrespective of the outcome, and I don’t think it’s right to sneer at that, but those who thought it was going to be a straightforward exercise displayed a staggering lack of judgement.

They are the ones who actually fucked us. Because their decision wasn't a visceral one, but rather one they thought would logically benefit us. It’s hard to image a worse collective exercise of discretion.
 
BobKowalski said:
Rejoining won’t happen as the EU will not vote for us to join. No one wants a rerun of the UK ‘in and out’ fan dance.
Click to expand...
Agree with the last bit but not the former.

They have made it very clear that they would welcome us rejoining. The EU is basically a trading club and the bigger the better. We are clearly worse of on the outside so we will either end up aligned or rejoining due to economic necessity. There is clear support for rejoining but it would need to be pretty much a slam dunk before anyone mentions the R word.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top