How do we resolve the Brexit mess?

[bluethrunthru]

The UK would require the consent of the other EFTA states to join. There are significant reasons why the UK is unlikely to join EFTA. The EFTA agreement requires accession to the four freedoms of persons, goods, services and capital.

 

[Vic]

I have seen inflation and high interest rates ascribed to Brexit. A cursory glance at EU Figures disproves that notion. Similarly high energy prices are nothing to do with Brexit. There was a post somewhere on BM recently that said our cutting off of EU energy arrangements was to blame. Our energy relationship with the EU remains unchanged, tho’ there are leisurely discussions about a new regime some years hence.
Similarly, the cluster fuck in N.I. has been ascribed to Brexit yet Varadkar and the EU have reportedly accepted all the main points that the UK was making i.e. Green and Red channels for UK exports to N.I., the removal of the EU commission’s right to apply to the court to amend UK regs. etc etc.
There are of course downsides to Brexit but it is important to identify them correctly in order to take the best remedial action. Contrary to the post above, there is no going back, we are stuck with it and we should plan accordingly.
Edit PS. The IMF forecast that UK will do worse than Russia this year has similarly been ascribed to Brexit but the IMF put it down to fiscal consolidation, absolutely nothing to do with Brexit. The way some media have reacted to this, you wouldn’t know that the forecast is an improvement on the previous one or that the IMF have said the consolidation policies are the correct ones.

It's obvious that Brexit is a driver of food prices.

Why are energy prices higher here than in the EU?

IMF - they've been telling the effect of Brexit for a long time:

The Uneven Path Ahead: The Effect of Brexit on Different Sectors in the UK Economy

www.imf.org

See Bloomberg, their estimate is it's costing us £100bn a year!

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

Well, start by telling me why each epithet is true about Brexiteer Rishi Sunak

Does he have a non-racist immigration policy on refugees? Or did reappoint an evil witch to the role so he could get his slimy hands on the premiership?

Do you think that man isn't in someway deluded about is own ability and perhaps a bit stupid?

How many times have you asked a homeless man if they work in Business?

To be fair I regularly ask if the beggars hassling me for change if they live in a mansion and only smoke crack to seem more interesting.

But that's all besides the point anyway, these comments are about voters not politicians. Ordinary people don't usually have to be two faced about their motivations for voting for something.

 

[Brewster's millions]

The UK would require the consent of the other EFTA states to join. There are significant reasons why the UK is unlikely to join EFTA. The EFTA agreement requires accession to the four freedoms of persons, goods, services and capital.

It’s an empty argument to say the UK should join EFTA, as EFTA essentially reflects the relationship its members have with the EU, rather than EFTA dictating their relationship with the EU.

For the UK, joining EFTA would essentially mean joining the EEA, as its unlikely the bilateral agreements the EU has with Switzerland would be copied over to the UK. The EEA means following EU regulation and law for 90%-plus of the UK economy, without any formal UK influence over its formation. No large country would ever sign up to that, and joining the EEA wouldn’t solve the Northern Ireland border issue either.

 

[KS55]

Does he have a non-racist immigration policy on refugees? Or did reappoint an evil witch to the role so he could get his slimy hands on the premiership?

Do you think that man isn't in someway deluded about is own ability and perhaps a bit stupid?

How many times have you asked a homeless man if they work in Business?

To be fair I regularly ask if the beggars hassling me for change if they live in a mansion and only smoke crack to seem more interesting.

But that's all besides the point anyway, these comments are about voters not politicians. Ordinary people don't usually have to be two faced about their motivations for voting for something.

Ok here’s a voter.
Jim Ratcliffe

 

[KS55]

It’s an empty argument to say the UK should join EFTA, as EFTA essentially reflects the relationship its members have with the EU, rather than EFTA dictating their relationship with the EU.

For the UK, joining EFTA would essentially mean joining the EEA, as its unlikely the bilateral agreements the EU has with Switzerland would be copied over to the UK. The EEA means following EU regulation and law for 90%-plus of the UK economy, without any formal UK influence over its formation. No large country would ever sign up to that, and joining the EEA wouldn’t solve the Northern Ireland border issue either.

Signing up to being a law taker but not a law maker was exactly what T. May asked the commons to approve.
N.I. An agreed solution (red and green channels) has been reached according to the Times.

 

[bluethrunthru]

waffle waffle waffle - VACCINES - it a load of shite isn't it

 

[Brewster's millions]

Signing up to being a law taker but not a law maker was exactly what T. May asked the commons to approve.
N.I. An agreed solution (red and green channels) has been reached according to the Times.

Theresa May asked for all kinds of silly things on Brexit, the worst one being a proposal for the EU to treat any good exported from the UK to the EU as a purely UK-produced product from a rules of origin perspective, regardless of where the good and its components had actually been manufactured.

This would have allowed the UK to undercut the EU on trade with third countries, and then re-export these goods into the EU tariff- free, and her proposal was pretty much the last thing the EU would ever agree to. It neatly demonstrated how utterly clueless she was regarding Brexit, and her chief adviser on the issue - who was equally culpable in dreaming up stuff that would never fly - ended up getting a knighthood and a job at Goldman Sachs. Which pretty much sums it all up.

On NI, the red and green lanes should help and the EU hasn’t behaved well on this issue over the past couple of years, but my comment was more in relation to EFTA membership not eradicating the need for some form of border checks on GB - NI trade.

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

Ok here’s a voter.
Jim Ratcliffe

A rag who lives in Monaco for tax purposes?

 

[johnnytapia]

Well, we aren't are we?

And under your system (not in the ECHR) there is no protection whatever for our rights and liberties.

Because under our crazy electoral system, 35% of voters (located in the right places, not evenly spread across the UK) can elect a majority government. And that government can then do anything. There are no effective checks and balances. Our constitution, such as it is, can be amended by a 326/324 vote in the Commons. Take away the ECHR, and whatever they then vote for is the law.

The law is not about morals. It is what it is. Evil governments can pass evil laws. We have a burning example still in the living memory of very old people. Adolf and his mates were elected. Everything they did was legal under German law.

Far-fetched? Couldn't happen here? That's what they said. And we have seen how demagogues can gain sway in this country and how easily they can lead a huge chunk of the population into folly.

So yes, I would prefer the supervision of the ECHR. And preferably the EU too, even though, when it comes down to it, its powers over the sovereign states that form its membership are strictly limited by the agreed treaties. Because people are sometimes cunts, and very often they do not think things through. It's too easy to inflame people with headlines and conspiracy theories. And our political class is vile, among the worst in the 'democratic' world, while we also have a media that is wholly unchecked and run for the benefit of plutocratic, criminal tax exiles.

On top of all that, Brexit has fucked our economy. That's why you're paying more tax for less, and why that will be a continuing aspect of your life.

Does that answer your question?

As the Germans would say...genau.

 

[Bodicoteblue]

waffle waffle waffle - VACCINES - it a load of shite isn't it

What we were told we would get- and what we actually got.
A perfect example of why so many are becoming disillusioned with the whole shit-show.

 

[Gabriel]

 

[Gabriel]

 

[KS55]

A rag who lives in Monaco for tax purposes?

I see my plea for a more sensible Brexit debate has fallen on stony ground.

 

[KS55]

Well, we aren't are we?

And under your system (not in the ECHR) there is no protection whatever for our rights and liberties.

Because under our crazy electoral system, 35% of voters (located in the right places, not evenly spread across the UK) can elect a majority government. And that government can then do anything. There are no effective checks and balances. Our constitution, such as it is, can be amended by a 326/324 vote in the Commons. Take away the ECHR, and whatever they then vote for is the law.

The law is not about morals. It is what it is. Evil governments can pass evil laws. We have a burning example still in the living memory of very old people. Adolf and his mates were elected. Everything they did was legal under German law.

Far-fetched? Couldn't happen here? That's what they said. And we have seen how demagogues can gain sway in this country and how easily they can lead a huge chunk of the population into folly.

So yes, I would prefer the supervision of the ECHR. And preferably the EU too, even though, when it comes down to it, its powers over the sovereign states that form its membership are strictly limited by the agreed treaties. Because people are sometimes cunts, and very often they do not think things through. It's too easy to inflame people with headlines and conspiracy theories. And our political class is vile, among the worst in the 'democratic' world, while we also have a media that is wholly unchecked and run for the benefit of plutocratic, criminal tax exiles.

On top of all that, Brexit has fucked our economy. That's why you're paying more tax for less, and why that will be a continuing aspect of your life.

Does that answer your question?

Increased taxation is about fiscal consolidation and has nothing to do with Brexit. In or out the measures for consolidation would be the same. They are there to reduce borrowing, curb the growth of debt, and reduce spending. See the Autumn statement.
In what way has Brexit fucked our economy? Even economists cannot agree on this.

 

[west didsblue]

Increased taxation is about fiscal consolidation and has nothing to do with Brexit. In or out the measures for consolidation would be the same. They are there to reduce borrowing, curb the growth of debt, and reduce spending. See the Autumn statement.
In what way has Brexit fucked our economy? Even economists cannot agree on this.

It has shrunk GDP, reduced international trade and increased our borrowing requirement leading to record deficits. The Brexiteers can blame the pandemic and Ukraine as much as they like but those factors have impacted every country in Europe and we're still doing worse than everyone else in spite of government claims to the contrary. The only reason that GDP isn't even worse is because of the non-value added inclusion of LNG gas imports and exports as discussed yesterday.

 

[KS55]

It's obvious that Brexit is a driver of food prices.

Why are energy prices higher here than in the EU?

IMF - they've been telling the effect of Brexit for a long time:

The Uneven Path Ahead: The Effect of Brexit on Different Sectors in the UK Economy

www.imf.org

See Bloomberg, their estimate is it's costing us £100bn a year!

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

2022 food price inflation eu….17.8
2022 food price inflation uk….16.8
Dead obvious.

 

[The perfect fumble]

waffle waffle waffle - VACCINES - it a load of shite isn't it

Like everything else, the vaccine bullshit is a lie.

 

[KS55]

It has shrunk GDP, reduced international trade and increased our borrowing requirement leading to record deficits. The Brexiteers can blame the pandemic and Ukraine as much as they like but those factors have impacted every country in Europe and we're still doing worse than everyone else in spite of government claims to the contrary. The only reason that GDP isn't even worse is because of the non-value added inclusion of LNG gas imports and exports as discussed yesterday.

We are not doing worse than everybody. I have no idea which of the high or low estimates for the effects of brexit on GDP are nearest the truth, but neither have economists.
Are you mixing up achieved numbers with one recent forecast?
In 2021 we had the highest GDP growth in G7. In 2022, we fell back somewhat but the differences to most eu countries are small.
We did worse than most in the pandemic.
In terms of debt ratio (a better indicator of economic health) we do much better than many eu countries and better than the eu as a whole, but again the differences overall are not great- we have about 5% to 10% less debt.
As I keep saying, there are many downsides to Brexit but you have to identify them correctly in order to deal with them.
For example, I would point to social factors being much more deleterious than economic ones. Education is a massive loser in Brexit, but none here ever mention it. Gov is even now trying to drum up more Iranian and Chinese students to the uk to replace lost eu students.

 

[west didsblue]

We are not doing worse than everybody. I have no idea which of the high or low estimates for the effects of brexit on GDP are nearest the truth, but neither have economists.
Are you mixing up achieved numbers with one recent forecast?
In 2021 we had the highest GDP growth in G7. In 2022, we fell back somewhat but the differences to most eu countries are small.
We did worse than most in the pandemic.
In terms of debt ratio (a better indicator of economic health) we do much better than many eu countries and better than the eu as a whole, but again the differences overall are not great- we have about 5% to 10% less debt.
As I keep saying, there are many downsides to Brexit but you have to identify them correctly in order to deal with them.
For example, I would point to social factors being much more deleterious than economic ones. Education is a massive loser in Brexit, but none here ever mention it. Gov is even now trying to drum up more Iranian and Chinese students to the uk to replace lost eu students.

Cherry picking the 2021 GDP growth figure is totally misleading. Because our economy suffered more than practically all our peers during the pandemic, it had a much larger drop to recoup. Taking the pre-pandemic figure and comparing it to now provides a much better comparison and on that measure we've done by far the worst, and are the only major economy that has failed to regain (or barely returned to) the pre-pandemic position. Debt ratios are also totally dependent on the type of economy in question (Japan's is double everyone else's for example) and on their own don't tell us much other than by how much they get better or worse. You're absolutely correct about the social and educational factors which will have a longer term impact on the economic health of the country.