How do we resolve the Brexit mess?

Estimates vary, but Brexit has knocked between 3 and 9 per cent off GDP. We have fallen in the rank of exporters from 6th to 14th.

In simple terms, you have a smaller pie, but the same number of people to share it between.

This means either taxes have to rise, or services have to be cut, or both. In reality, both. It may be that this is not all down to Brexit - but something that knocks 3-9% off GDP cannot be good news.

Since the Tories will never penalise the super-wealthy, who own a massively disproportionate share of the UK's wealth and are careful to minimise their tax, it follows as night follows day that most of the burden will fall on ordinary people. And it is! Why do you think people are so angry?

Like it or not, the economy is everything. Wagging a Union Jack about and boasting about how 'independent' we are does not put food on tables, create jobs, or do anything else that is actually useful. Sadly there is not another continent 22 miles away that we can trade with in substitution for the EU.
 
west didsblue said:
Cherry picking the 2021 GDP growth figure is totally misleading. Because our economy suffered more than practically all our peers during the pandemic, it had a much larger drop to recoup. Taking the pre-pandemic figure and comparing it to now provides a much better comparison and on that measure we've done by far the worst, and are the only major economy that has failed to regain (or barely returned to) the pre-pandemic position. Debt ratios are also totally dependent on the type of economy in question (Japan's is double everyone else's for example) and on their own don't tell us much other than by how much they get better or worse. You're absolutely correct about the social and educational factors which will have a longer term impact on the economic health of the country.
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Yeah. I was trying to avoid the pandemic years because the poster himself said that was misleading. Perhaps I fell into a trap of my own making.
Generally, I think people are far too fixated on the direct economic effects of brexit. They don’t like Brexit so they ascribe every short term economic ill to it, but miss the more important stuff.
I could bore for England on the social effects of which education is a major one. So much lost when, say, French students do not come here and ours do not go there: and it’s long term—Macron is an Anglophile and spends his holidays here, for instance. I was glad to see a mea culpa from Varadkar on N.I.— we are near solving that now, interestingly by EU accepting Red and green lanes for uk exports there, which we suggested years ago.
I worked extensively on EU banking regs (ugh!) and I was shocked at some of the cultish attitudes to be found in France, Germany and elsewhere concerning uk not being communitaire enough and the anti American stance. A completed EU standing as a bulwark between US and Russia and being the third great power was an article of faith. It was absolutely necessary for the commission (not the parliament) to become the driver. Putin has knocked that on the head. The future in or out of the EU will be challenging but good. I won’t be around to see it, more’s the pity.
 
BrianW said:
Estimates vary, but Brexit has knocked between 3 and 9 per cent. We have fallen in the rank of exporters from 6th to 14th.

In simple terms, you have a smaller pie, but the same number of people to share it between.

This means either taxes have to rise, or services have to be cut, or both. In reality, both. It may be that this is not all down to Brexit - but something that knocks 3-9% off GDP cannot be good news.

Since the Tories will never penalise the super-wealthy, who own a massively disproportionate share of the UK's wealth and are careful to minimise their tax, it follows as night follows day that most of the burden will fall on ordinary people. And it is! Why do you think people are so angry?

Like it or not, the economy is everything. Wagging a Union Jack about and boasting about how 'independent' we are does not put food on tables, create jobs, or do anything else that is actually useful. Sadly there is not another continent 22 miles away that we can trade with in substitution for the EU.
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The economy is not everything; the rule of law, education, health etc much more important. Ok, the economy pays for these things but if you start there, there is no plan, no purpose. It’s like Cameron who became prime minister without a single idea in his head about what he would do with power. Consequently, he achieved very little, tho’ credit is due for gay marriage laws. You must start with a vision and plan how the economy can deliver it. The economy is our servant, not our master.
Side note: GDP does not tell you the size of the pie. You can have a big GDP and a small pie. Profit per capita, ROCE etc tell you the size of the pie.
 
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KS55 said:
The economy is not everything, the rule of law, education, health etc much more important. Ok, the economy pays for these things but if you start there, there is no plan, no purpose. It’s like Cameron who became prime minister without a single idea in his head about what he would do with power. You must start with a vision and plan how the economy can deliver it. The economy is our servant, not our master.
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This is all very well, but as my grandad used to say, you cannot have a Rolls-Royce on pushbike money.

There are some people, I suppose, who would be happy to live like a Carthusian monk, on minimal rations, for the sake of some nebulous 'principle' that they have fixated upon. I am not one of them.

If you want to talk intangibles, what about European culture? We are part of it. We have been for centuries and our medieval kings were more cosmopolitan than any Tory MP of this generation. We are not Americans (God forbid!) or Australians or Indians. We are Europeans and it makes no sense whatever to diverge from other Europeans. No sense whatever.
 
BrianW said:
This is all very well, but as my grandad used to say, you cannot have a Rolls-Royce on pushbike money.

There are some people, I suppose, who would be happy to live like a Carthusian monk, on minimal rations, for the sake of some nebulous 'principle' that they have fixated upon. I am not one of them.

If you want to talk intangibles, what about European culture? We are part of it. We have been for centuries and our medieval kings were more cosmopolitan than any Tory MP of this generation. We are not Americans (God forbid!) or Australians or Indians. We are Europeans and it makes no sense whatever to diverge from other Europeans. No sense whatever.
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I agree. Cultural and social factors are the most important aspect of all this.
The response to your granddad is you have to decide first whether you want a Roller or something else. That is the decision that tells you what sort of country we will be. Do you want to be a society like Scandinavia or like US? That will dictate your economic plan. Compare those societies: US has huge disparity of wealth and plenty of Rollers, Scandinavia has few Rollers but very little disparity. Hardly intangible features.
 
KS55 said:
The economy is not everything; the rule of law, education, health etc much more important. Ok, the economy pays for these things but if you start there, there is no plan, no purpose. It’s like Cameron who became prime minister without a single idea in his head about what he would do with power. Consequently, he achieved very little, tho’ credit is due for gay marriage laws. You must start with a vision and plan how the economy can deliver it. The economy is our servant, not our master.
Side note: GDP does not tell you the size of the pie. You can have a big GDP and a small pie. Profit per capita, ROCE etc tell you the size of the pie.
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Camerons delivery of ''Gay Marriage Laws'' was only the logical extension of Labours enactment of ''Civil Partnerships'' ....nothing new or dramatic.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Emily Matliss was on the other week and said that every day/week/month of the Brexit debate they had many many more economists and businessmen against Brexit than for it but, on every news show, for the sake of ‘balance’ they always had one of each on, which is actually more nonsensical than it sounds…
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FPTP v PR
 
Metal Biker said:
How many would take EFTA membership today, I ask myself.

Could have sorted this six years ago but reasoned debate was never on the cards, just vitriolic verbiage.
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There was never going to be reasoned debate when simplistic phrases such as oven-ready deal, taking back control, and £350 million a week to the NHS had been used to win the vote. Negotiating a new deal was always going to be a thankless task after that.
 
East Level 2 said:
There was never going to be reasoned debate when simplistic phrases such as oven-ready deal, taking back control, and £350 million a week to the NHS had been used to win the vote. Negotiating a new deal was always going to be a thankless task after that.
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Yet few if any on the remain side of the debate were willing to engage in the discussion of rejoining the EFTA. Instead it was all about remaining in the EU, when everyone saw it was a heavily controversial stance in the wake of what was seen as a public vote of opinion. The 'soft' brexit option was debated for about a few months at best and then became a soundbite in later discussions as everything became toxic, calling those who voted to leave stupid, racist, xenophobic etc, and everyone's stances hardened to be wholly for or against.
 
Metal Biker said:
Yet few if any on the remain side of the debate were willing to engage in the discussion of rejoining the EFTA. Instead it was all about remaining in the EU, when everyone saw it was a heavily controversial stance in the wake of what was seen as a public vote of opinion. The 'soft' brexit option was debated for about a few months at best and then became a soundbite in later discussions as everything became toxic, calling those who voted to leave stupid, racist, xenophobic etc, and everyone's stances hardened to be wholly for or against.
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As soon as the referendum was done, I was really hoping for an efta deal, I thought that was the best option that aligned with a 52/48 split in the electorate. The narrative domestically changed a lot though, those that were pushing it as a potential option on the leave side turned it into a “not proper Brexit” offering and a lot on the remain side spent way too long trying to overturn it from the start.

It was a binary choice to stay or leave but people weren’t binary in their reasons for choosing it and subsequently how they’d have liked it to have been delivered. Whatever side people initially voted in the referendum, I don’t think anyone would disagree that the last six years since it and how it’s been dealt with is a clusterfuck. Rather than being a proper debate and consideration, the whole thing has regressed our political discourse across the board.
 
meltonblue said:
As soon as the referendum was done, I was really hoping for an efta deal, I thought that was the best option that aligned with a 52/48 split in the electorate. The narrative domestically changed a lot though, those that were pushing it as a potential option on the leave side turned it into a “not proper Brexit” offering and a lot on the remain side spent way too long trying to overturn it from the start.

It was a binary choice to stay or leave but people weren’t binary in their reasons for choosing it and subsequently how they’d have liked it to have been delivered. Whatever side people initially voted in the referendum, I don’t think anyone would disagree that the last six years since it and how it’s been dealt with is a clusterfuck. Rather than being a proper debate and consideration, the whole thing has regressed our political discourse across the board.
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Its what I was advocating for before and after the referendum and still do. You can't be in both, so I opted for a decision that would put us on a path towards it. I was never on the side of the 'not proper brexit', because I despise the term; a little soundbite for politicians and journalists to stoke up fervour.

Leaving was leaving, but there was nothing to stop us making choices that kept many of the things the nation wanted to keep whilst ditching the things many were opposed to, something EFTA offered and the EU even recommended to the UK. Continued tariff-free trade in exchange for freedom of movement of people. Yes to Single Market access, no to the Customs Union (because the EFTA does not advocate for one, nor wants it). They were the compromises, ones many would accept on both sides, but we all saw how the debate turned out when the more "passionate" took over the discussion.
 
Metal Biker said:
Its what I was advocating for before and after the referendum and still do. You can't be in both, so I opted for a decision that would put us on a path towards it. I was never on the side of the 'not proper brexit', because I despise the term; a little soundbite for politicians and journalists to stoke up fervour.

Leaving was leaving, but there was nothing to stop us making choices that kept many of the things the nation wanted to keep whilst ditching the things many were opposed to, something EFTA offered and the EU even recommended to the UK. Continued tariff-free trade in exchange for freedom of movement of people. Yes to Single Market access, no to the Customs Union (because the EFTA does not advocate for one, nor wants it). They were the compromises, ones many would accept on both sides, but we all saw how the debate turned out when the more "passionate" took over the discussion.
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I remember you being strongly in favour of it, and in hindsight it does look the sensible option, but to be honest other than yourself I don’t remember anyone of note talking about it in the mainstream. I’m not sure the politics sun forum carries the weight over political discourse we think it does :)
 
Mr Kobayashi said:
Are you a scouser?

Brexit was always going to be a hard Brexit and EFTA was never going to happen.

It’s some cheek to blame others for something you have more responsibility for.
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Wile the leave campaigns were saying all things to all people one thing was clear. They were the worst of our political class. Liars and arseholes. Anyone voting for Brexit made a massive error in assuming these people had any good intentions. The shit show was inevitable.
 
joe123 said:
I remember you being strongly in favour of it, and in hindsight it does look the sensible option, but to be honest other than yourself I don’t remember anyone of note talking about it in the mainstream. I’m not sure the politics sun forum carries the weight over political discourse we think it does :)
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I'd have had us join up straightaway. But people heard "soft brexit" and thought it the 'weaker' option and I remember it was barely discussed or pooh-pooh'd by those favouring "hard" brexit or remaining.
 
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