Middle East Conflict

domalino said:
Like you say it's not surprising.

Remember there's no internet or telecomms in Gaza that's not Israeli. You can't google anything or text anyone without the Israeli Intelligence agencies seeing it.

So for an attack to happen on this scale - 22 simultaneous attacks, Air, Sea and Land, massive hostage taking - this has been planned for probably over a year, and you can't do that without using electronic communicaiton which means it slipped through the net probably hundreds of times.

Then there's the HUMINT side of things...people on the ground, informers etc. These attacks involved hundreds if not thousands of people in HAMAS. How could they not have any sources?

IIRC The USA recently warned Israel that the situation in Gaza and the West Bank was getting out of control and combined with their own constitutional crisis and upheaval they were risking something big happening.


I suppose there's only 2 outcomes. 1) People rally behind the flag and just allow the right wing takeover that's been resisted in Israel for the last few years. 2) People blame Netenyahu's corruption and attempts to make himself a quasi-dictator for the attack and he's booted out as soon as the dust settles.

WHich one of those happens probably depends a lot on the outcome of the hostage situation, which could take years to sort out.
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Egypt are saying they also warned Israel something big was brewing. Netanyahu’s entire security strategy was based on walling off the Palestinians and ignoring them. Keeping Hamas in place was part of that strategy. Couple this with ignored warnings and the continual internal strife with the security services, why anyone would entrust Netanyahu with Israel’s security going forward is beyond me, but electing bellends seems to be the fashion these days.

This is a failure of intelligence and Israeli foreign policy. What lessons Israel takes from this remains to be seen but I will guarantee that if they retain Netanyahu then the lessons drawn will be the wrong ones.
 
www.gov.il

PM Netanyahu Currently Speaking with Southern Local and Regional Council Heads

מבצע חרבות ברזל
www.gov.il www.gov.il

Prime Minister Netanyahu:

"We are in the midst of a campaign. I know that you have undergone a difficult and terrible ordeal. What Hamas will experience will be difficult and terrible; we are already in the campaign and we are just getting started. Your leadership has been very strong in these difficult days. The state will leave no stone unturned to help all of you. I ask that you stand steadfast because we are going to change the Middle East. I embrace you and the residents. We are all with you and we will defeat them forcefully."
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SWP's back said:
For me it would be deliberately targeting civilians on a scale not seen since World War 2 (to the best of my recollection and assuming we’re talking about targeting another country’s (for want of a better word) populace (obviously Stalin killed 20m of his own but no one really seemed to give a fuck).

If the blockade of food and medical supplies lasts any sort of time then it would be as morally bankrupt as this weekend’s attacks.
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Cutting off food and water would surely be classed as a war crime.
 
Huge explosions in Gaza City right now and clashes along the Lebanon/Israel border. Sounds like Israel are stealing a march on any potential incursion from the north.
 
Mr Kobayashi said:
Have you just responded to a satirical post seriously again?

Nobody knows the answer to the first. The nearest town is a small secular Kibbutz so not many.

There's an IDF base nearby.

en.m.wikipedia.org

Battle of Re'im - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org
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Of course I knew you were being satirical and were responding to people saying Hamas should be wiped out.

I was pointing out it’s a stupid analogy because the Hamas strategy is to try a kill as many Israelis as possible, not to target their actual enemies who are the ruling party in Israel. Israel’s response is to target known Hamas locations in Gaza and pre-warn civilians that they are being targeted, so your satire completely missed the mark.

As for posting the Wikipedia link, that battle was one minor part of this whole operation and if that had been the only target then it would be understandable if some people supported it. But it wasn’t.
 


I’m the last to don a tin foil hat but there’s something strangely reminiscent of Pearl Harbour about this and the age old question of whether the US knew it was coming but were happy enough for it to take place as pretext to enter a war it wanted to but felt was unable to due to it being hugely unpopular back home.
 
SWP's back said:
One would hope but given the sway Israel holds over the US, and the sway the US holds over everyone else, I’m not holding my breath. Hence my question re the Egyptian border with Gaza and who controls it.

I think Israel would be beyond foolish to lose the goodwill and sympathy they currently hold with the international community by collectively punishing a population of 2.5m people, of whom 99.999% will have had nothing to do with it, with starvation.
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They won't because they won't be allowed too, but they have to say this type of nonsense to keep the coalition together

Can you imagine what the reaction would be to mass starvation of 2.6 million people? And the US just allowing it to happen? The reaction of the Arab street would see increased instability in the Mid East especially the gulf region

There is a lot of silly speculation as to what the Israelis will do, including pushing the populations from the various areas to somewhere else, and then annexing the land, like any Arab country would want millions of Palestinians to cross the border

What's sad is that rather than getting to the route cause of the problem, it will just go the way of all the other wars, they can't destroy HAMAS or PIJ because just like they can't destroy Zionism because it's all based on ideology, what they can do, is to agree to some form of compromise, and eventually that's what's going to happen it's just that a lot of innocent people will suffer on both sides before it does
 
west didsblue said:
Of course I knew you were being satirical and were responding to people saying Hamas should be wiped out.

I was pointing out it’s a stupid analogy because the Hamas strategy is to try a kill as many Israelis as possible, not to target their actual enemies who are the ruling party in Israel. Israel’s response is to target known Hamas locations in Gaza and pre-warn civilians that they are being targeted, so your satire completely missed the mark.

As for posting the Wikipedia link, that battle was one minor part of this whole operation and if that had been the only target then it would be understandable if some people supported it. But it wasn’t.
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No it was the fact that you believe that a more moderate party will fill the gap, by wiping them out, that's insane. Resentment breeds resentment....

History suggests the exact opposite will happen.
 
Al Quds Brigade admits to operation on Lebanon border and Israel now replying with attack helicopters inside Lebanese territory
 
Netanyahu’s appeal to the electorate was based on him being a strong man who would keep Israelis safe. That has completely been blown out of the water. Whether the eventual outcome will be for him to be ousted and a more moderate government replaces his coalition remains to be seen, but that is the only hope for anything positive happening in the medium term. I don’t hold out much hope, mainly because the religious right are the fastest growing group in the country and are likely to keep him or someone even more right wing in power.

In the meantime Israel has no choice other than to try and neutralise Hamas but it’s what follows that will decide whether there will be another hundred years of conflict.
 
Streetsweeper said:
Yeah, throw in a supervolcano eruption and Judgement Day and this will have been the best decade ever...
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Brexit, Covid, Ukraine, Afghanistan, Earthquakes, Flooding, Global Warming, The Middle East, Amazon Rainforest, Donald Trump etc etc.

I am bloody glad I have reached the age of 77.
 
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