Gareth Barry Conlon
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Russian domestic issues seem to be slowly coming to a head. Inflation is rampant. They can't afford another recruitment drive. Something has to give.
Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Thread starter feedmpenzaandhewillscore
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Time published an article yesterday on Zelenskyy and Ukraine quoting senior Ukrainian official that is far from rosy…
Inside Volodymyr Zelensky’s Struggle to Keep Ukraine in the Fight
“Nobody believes in our victory like I do. Nobody,” Zelensky told TIME in an interview after his trip to Washington, D.C.time.com
TLDR:- Ukraine is running out of men and weapons, recruitment has ground down to basically zero now and too many are able to bribe their way out of serving. Ukraine needs to implement serious anti-corruption measures to retain US funding meaning Zelenskyy has had to fire senior, popular military figures and nobody wants to replace them..
Also directly confirms what Lukashenko said a few days ago, that essentially it’s now a stalemate and Russia having this winter to restock and reinforce defences would make it impossible for Ukraine to win, so Zelenskyy has demanded to keep pushing on through the cold and mud rather than freezing again for winter.
Final TLDR: - neither side is ‘winning’ - Ukraines losses are well into the 6 figures with no masses of men signing up or being conscripted to plug gaps unlike Russia, they need a constant flow of massive support packages and can’t afford to give Russia this winter to restock or it’s all over.
I’m sure many will complain as this thread has long turned into a circlejerk, but reality is needed sometimes.
I hope you wiped your cock after that post...
I'm still not sure why you find positive news a bad thing.
Most here know there is plenty of bad news and are under no illusions to the realities of this war.
Of course there will be setbacks. I find your obsession with (unverified) negative news suspect.
It has been mentioned many times that moral is equally important.
A stalemate is actually a winning situation (as such) for the Ukraine.
Nobody expected them to last a week never mind this long.
Well i have some bad news for you.
The Ukraine isn't looking at short terms solutions. They have been planning for a long offensive from the start.
You don't send troops off to other countries for training if you think it will be over anytime soon. They know the route to liberating your country is to plan for what you will need later.
They will have a new batch of pilots soon. With fresh planes and new missiles.
All this while Russia is losing pilots and planes/aircraft.
Have you seen the state of the armour that the Russian's are being forced to use?
Ever wondered why they haven't dropped the bridge yet?
It isn't because of the Russian defences. If it was, we would be seeing Ukrainian attempts failing and the Russians making the most of it.
It is simply timing.
Lack of action sometimes just means something else is being planned.
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cleavers
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Yes that's a good read, and it's hard to disagree with much of it, but I'd sooner Ukraine look after their people first, unlike russia they can't draw on a population from wide ranging poor states from the Pacific to Finland, they can literally only draw from within their own borders.Mark Sumner Update:
- I respect Mark's analysis and although Russia is losing men and material by the bucket load, I think we have indeed reached a sort of stalemate.
Ukraine Update: Five months in, Ukraine's counteroffensive has not achieved a breakthrough
From the start, Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has been a disaster. It’s been a disaster for dictator Vladimir Putin and Russia on every level. The vaunted “second-best army in the ...www.dailykos.com
BlueAnorak
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More comment on tge Ukrainian offensive:
Read what Noel is responding to first.
Read what Noel is responding to first.
BlueAnorak
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Central Command Report on the left/east bank of tge Dinipro:
BlueAnorak
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300k Russian Dead and permenantly incapacitated.
roubaixtuesday
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CTID1977
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Kirkstall Blue
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Here you go remember this video.
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Kirkstall Blue
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Igor Kyivskyi
@Igor_from_Kyiv_
When recently I see all these articles consisting of forecasts, expert opinions... some of them claim that the war in Ukraine has reached a dead end... that Ukraine will not win or at least return the occupied territories. I want you to watch and remember this video. I also want to remind everyone that a few days before and in the first days of the full-scale invasion, many military experts, including generals in the West, predicted the fall of Ukraine and Kyiv within 72 hours. Today is the 615th day of the full-scale invasion (the war itself against Russian terrorists has been waged since 2014). Kyiv stands.. Ukraine has cleared the Kyiv, Chernigiv, Sumy, Mykolayivska regions of the Russian plague. Ukraine regained control over most of the Kharkiv region. Kherson (and this is not just a small city, but a regional center) and part of this region were liberated. And Ukraine will return all its territory. And Ukraine already returned under its control half of the territories occupied by Russian occupiers after February 24, 2022.And also destroyed 300 thousand Russian soldiers, and thousands of Russian military equipment.And no matter what the skeptics and “experts” say, we will win this war and return all our lands, which rightfully belong to Ukraine and the Ukrainian people.Archive. Columns of the russian occupiers at the beginning of the war. And what happened to them next (to watch to the end). From the series "We will capture Kyiv in 3 days."
I only come here for news on Ukraine their doing very well in holding back the might of Russia
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Yes mate,my cousin been fighting there since 2015.
It seems to of eased up slightly at Avdiivka,thats not to say it will remain that way though.
Captured Russians tell Ukrainian soldiers that many Russians are refusing to attack Avdiivka on foot as they are...not my words,but a Russian soldier's words "walking towards certain death".
They still attack from the North,Southwest and Southeast.
Avdiivka will hold,of that,i'm sure.
Slava Ukraini.
33rd Mechanized Brigade taking ground Southwest of Robotyne.
This is the first time a push has been made in this direction,which is why i posted "WATCH"
116th Mechanized Brigade doing the same Southeast of Robotyne.
Slava Ukraini.
This is the first time a push has been made in this direction,which is why i posted "WATCH"
116th Mechanized Brigade doing the same Southeast of Robotyne.
Slava Ukraini.
Scottyboi
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From yesterday this so probably already outdated.
From the Analyst:
RUSSIA MASSES SIX BRIGADES AROUND AVDIVKA
The latest information is increasingly of concern. Russia senses a weakness around Avdivka and yesterday they captured the quarry to the west of the southern peninsula. This isn’t about moving westward in general, but widening the front it creates to the north of the west extended front. That gives them more room to push upward as their forces storm the coking plant from the northern arm.
More of Russia’s few reserves are being pulled here and there appears to be a weather window that will give them time to exploit the situation.
One of the biggest concerns with Avdivka is that it’s a deep salient. That means it gives little time to the Ukrainian forces to pull out of it if the neck suddenly collapses, which is never an impossibility in these circumstances. There comes a point when you just can’t hold open such a narrow artery if the enemy has reached a momentum.
Even if the Ukrainians manage to hold the neck wide enough to continue supporting the city and its environs, they also have to hold the defensive perimeter around the city to make it worth the effort.
It’s hugely resource intensive and the Russians know it. They’re trying to force the Ukrainians to accept the fact it isn’t a viable place to defend when its disadvantages are so obvious. They also know that if they capture it, any hope Ukraine ever had of taking back occupied Zaporhizia let alone Donetsk is largely out of the window without massive military aid far beyond anything that’s been seen so far. This then, will be the point Putin offers a genuine willingness to negotiate. He’d have a winning hand. Everything to gain and nothing to lose.
And that’s why it cannot happen. Ukraine faces a huge existential threat here. It either fights to the point of exhaustion - risking the rest of the front line because the Russians will press them in distraction efforts.
The Russians know this is make or break for them. Avdivka is the closing argument. If they can’t take it the war rumbles on, US aid will flow again (I remain convinced it will), Ukraine will start to gain an active air force from the spring and the tables if not turned, will be rebalanced.
So far Ukrainian attempts to destabilise the offensive haven’t worked. I think that’s because Russia has created such a mass that while they take heavy losses it’s something they’ve already accepted as inevitable. By building that into their calculations any countervailing measures Ukraine takes - unless vastly more powerful than Russia has calculated - will amount to nothing more than they already expect to loose.
This is the Russian way. It always has been. Pile up vast amounts of mediocre forces and overwhelm the enemy.
There’s just no getting away from that quantity of men, and they absolutely don’t care how many they lose. It’s all irrelevant if they win. And if they don’t? There’s more where they came from.
There is great danger here, have no doubt. What Ukraine does next needs to be brilliant, forceful and devastating uin its accuracy. They have to topple the Russian’s balance and give them something to think about they didn’t expect and can’t quickly react to.
Defeat here and a bloody nose for Russia will stop it dead and prevent another offensive for months to come.
Slava Ukraine !
From the Analyst:
RUSSIA MASSES SIX BRIGADES AROUND AVDIVKA
The latest information is increasingly of concern. Russia senses a weakness around Avdivka and yesterday they captured the quarry to the west of the southern peninsula. This isn’t about moving westward in general, but widening the front it creates to the north of the west extended front. That gives them more room to push upward as their forces storm the coking plant from the northern arm.
More of Russia’s few reserves are being pulled here and there appears to be a weather window that will give them time to exploit the situation.
One of the biggest concerns with Avdivka is that it’s a deep salient. That means it gives little time to the Ukrainian forces to pull out of it if the neck suddenly collapses, which is never an impossibility in these circumstances. There comes a point when you just can’t hold open such a narrow artery if the enemy has reached a momentum.
Even if the Ukrainians manage to hold the neck wide enough to continue supporting the city and its environs, they also have to hold the defensive perimeter around the city to make it worth the effort.
It’s hugely resource intensive and the Russians know it. They’re trying to force the Ukrainians to accept the fact it isn’t a viable place to defend when its disadvantages are so obvious. They also know that if they capture it, any hope Ukraine ever had of taking back occupied Zaporhizia let alone Donetsk is largely out of the window without massive military aid far beyond anything that’s been seen so far. This then, will be the point Putin offers a genuine willingness to negotiate. He’d have a winning hand. Everything to gain and nothing to lose.
And that’s why it cannot happen. Ukraine faces a huge existential threat here. It either fights to the point of exhaustion - risking the rest of the front line because the Russians will press them in distraction efforts.
The Russians know this is make or break for them. Avdivka is the closing argument. If they can’t take it the war rumbles on, US aid will flow again (I remain convinced it will), Ukraine will start to gain an active air force from the spring and the tables if not turned, will be rebalanced.
So far Ukrainian attempts to destabilise the offensive haven’t worked. I think that’s because Russia has created such a mass that while they take heavy losses it’s something they’ve already accepted as inevitable. By building that into their calculations any countervailing measures Ukraine takes - unless vastly more powerful than Russia has calculated - will amount to nothing more than they already expect to loose.
This is the Russian way. It always has been. Pile up vast amounts of mediocre forces and overwhelm the enemy.
There’s just no getting away from that quantity of men, and they absolutely don’t care how many they lose. It’s all irrelevant if they win. And if they don’t? There’s more where they came from.
There is great danger here, have no doubt. What Ukraine does next needs to be brilliant, forceful and devastating uin its accuracy. They have to topple the Russian’s balance and give them something to think about they didn’t expect and can’t quickly react to.
Defeat here and a bloody nose for Russia will stop it dead and prevent another offensive for months to come.
Slava Ukraine !
BlueAnorak
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The so called experts often underestimate the Ukrainians. They are fighting for their future and for their childrens’ future. They are fighting for the very existence of Ukraine, they are fighting for their freedom. Strong motivations. When things look grim, they gird their loins and go again.
r.soleofsalford
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Heroyam Slava.
Churchlawtonblue
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I don't think anyone is doubting the bravery and resolve of Ukrainians. I just think that unless they get significantly more help, and the west hardens its resolve and imposes more stringent sanctions on Russia this war will grind on and on.
The gains they are making are impressive in one way but the amount of land they have to take back is huge compared to what they have liberated. And the Russians seemingly have an endless supply of men and equipment and entrenched positions.