Guardiola is warning that qualification for next season's CL is not guaranteed while others talk of the crisis in which the club finds itself and others assure us Liverpool or Arsenal are more likely to win the title. Our club has not won in four. It is true that Villa (13), Liverpool (14) and Arsenal (!5) have all taken considerably more points than our modest nine. Closer inspection, however, suggests that the evidence of the points might not be as decisive or convincing as at first sight.
If we look at the quality of the opposition faced in those 6 games we note that the only side in the top half of the table that Liverpool played is, in fact City. The other 5 matches were against sides in 18th, 11th,13th,20th and 15th. Wins were secured at Palace (against 10 men) in the last minute, at home to Fulham with goals in the 87th and 88th to come from behind while the draw at Luton was won with a last minute equaliser. In Arsenal's case they have only played Newcastle from the top half of the table and this was a match they lost. In their other games they have played all three teams in the relegation places (two at home) and the teams in 11th and 12th. The team in 18th was beaten by a goal in the 7th minute of stoppage time while Brentford lost to a goal in the last minute of normal time. Villa have played two teams from the top half of the table and they played exceptionally well at Villa Park against us. They won at Spurs which was a good result thought could well have lost the game in the first ten minutes. Apart from those games they beat Luton and Fulham at home but could only draw at Bournemouth (coutesy of a last minute equaliser and they lost at Forest.
On the other hand City have played 4 of the last 6 against top half teams and while no-one would claim we are in top form the only one lost is the match at Villa, the side with the best home record this season in the PL. The other three ended in disappointing draws but we were the victim of very late equalisers against Spurs and Chelsea and an 80th minute equaliser for Liverpool. In our other two games we hammered 13th place Bournemouth 6-1 and the 6th place team 3-0 at their ground.
What emerges from this is just how right Pep is when he explains what a difference "small things" can make; take off the last minute (and later!) goals that Arsenal, Liverpool and even Villa got and their points total is pretty much the same as ours. Had we not conceded late goals our points total could have put us comfortably in top spot. It's maybe not a crisis yet!