US Politics Thread

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BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
The Trump civil fraud case isn't going to sway anyone. Because third party accounting rules in force at the time, coupled with tangential depreciation along the elliptic curvature of the asset deferred time tensor clearly shows that Trump has no liability... huh?!?, whatthefuck!!!... no lay person is going to understand this.

The Stormy Daniels hush money case is going to have very minor impact.

And the other cases aren't (very likely) going to go to trial before the election.

If you're counting on the electorate turning against Trump because his felony trials are delayed... well, I hope you're right. But let's be honest... you're engaging in wishful thinking.
(I was all in for Trump!!! but then his felony trial was delayed - now, I'm not voting and the missus is now voting for Biden... really???)

In reality, delayed trials will not sway enough voters either way to make a difference.

Hell... FogBlue even doubts that a felony conviction will make the slightest difference. I strongly disagree due to recently exit polling of Republican caucus voters... but who knows.

55% Trump as next US President versus 45% Biden for me ATM (Haley, Kennedy, Harris and so on are less than 1 %).
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No lay person is going to understand defrauding a bank or the IRS or an insurance company? Ok.
 
Heard on the radio earlier that Taylor Swift is seen by Trump supporters as a deep state plant working against Trump and the NFL are rigging the Super Bowl so Travis Kelce so the Kansas City Chiefs win because that helps her plot to ......... that was where it fell apart as I couldn't see how that would benefit her in the dastardly subversive plot they have going. The MAGA's are mental.
 
bluethrunthru said:
Heard on the radio earlier that Taylor Swift is seen by Trump supporters as a deep state plant working against Trump and the NFL are rigging the Super Bowl so Travis Kelce so the Kansas City Chiefs win because that helps her plot to ......... that was where it fell apart as I couldn't see how that would benefit her in the dastardly subversive plot they have going. The MAGA's are mental.
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As I noted — if they put some thought into it, it would be a better conspiracy narrative if alternative-lifestyle, crime-ridden, whacko-liberal, BLM-loving, home-of-Pelosi-and-Gavin-Newsom San Francisco won it! But no one ever accused conspiracy theorists of thinking very hard.
 
BayernMan said:


The GOP is embracing its loser status.
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As we keep discussing, the GOP is suffering defeat after defeat on political issues that “matter” since Roe was overturned. The anti-MAGA undercurrent is very strong, and the “we won’t cooperate with libs even to get something we want” overcurrent is too.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
55% Trump as next US President versus 45% Biden for me ATM
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Nothing Trump does or gets convicted of will sway anyone. His support is 100% baked in.

Biden's already lost muslims voting for him as he's supporting Israel.. they won't flip to trump but there's a sizeable size of them in the swing states. He obviously made the calculation that losing Israeli voters would be losing more.

BTW polls don't matter for shit.. most of them are just some 75% old white guy polls anyways.

But in reality it's going to come down to 6 states: PA, MI, WI, NV, AZ and GA. Whoever wins 4 out of those will be potus!

The only thing that can rescue dems and Biden is those who don't want a MAGA dictatorship for whatever reason.. gen z abortion vote and those who can see trump is sabotaging immigration control. Lets hope enough of those people who can see through the bullshit of MAGA live in those states.

www.nytimes.com

Biden Has Openings for a Comeback on Two Weak Points (Published 2024)

He now has a clear line of defense on the border issue and a strong argument about the economy.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
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Blue_Lightsaber said:
Nothing Trump does or gets convicted of will sway anyone. His support is 100% baked in.

Biden's already lost muslims voting for him as he's supporting Israel.. they won't flip to trump but there's a sizeable size of them in the swing states. He obviously made the calculation that losing Israeli voters would be losing more.

BTW polls don't matter for shit.. most of them are just some 75% old white guy polls anyways.

But in reality it's going to come down to 6 states: PA, MI, WI, NV, AZ and GA. Whoever wins 4 out of those will be potus!

The only thing that can rescue dems and Biden is those who don't want a MAGA dictatorship for whatever reason.. gen z abortion vote and those who can see trump is sabotaging immigration control. Lets hope enough of those people who can see through the bullshit of MAGA live in those states.

www.nytimes.com

Biden Has Openings for a Comeback on Two Weak Points (Published 2024)

He now has a clear line of defense on the border issue and a strong argument about the economy.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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The polls which show erosion of support for Trump if he's convicted of a felony - which I'm going to take as conviction in the classified document case or in the federal Jan 6th case - were particularly relevant as they were exit polls of Republican caucus voters.

I agree that 30-35% of Trump's base are MAGA diehards who could care less, but that's not the entire Republican electorate.

You're free to discount the polling if you wish, but I think it's relevant.
===
As for what might rescue Democrats absent a Trump felony conviction... numerous factors are in play, particularly abortion. If, in swing states, Democrats are successful in getting abortion rights measures to appear on their ballots, this will have a big impact in turnout of woman voters the vast majority of whom will vote Democrat.

Although it remains to be seen how impactful the House's refusal to take up the bipartisan immigration bill passed by the Senate will be, one would think that the hypocrisy this action lays bare could well sway some few voters.

Then there's the repeated bullshit impeachment attempts that the House keeps trying to pull off. This behavior rankles many folks.

And on and on.

It's really amazing that the race is going to be close. Biden should win this thing by a landslide.
 
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BayernMan said:


Oof.
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Haley's route to POTUS is based on Trump going to jail and she positions herself as the 2nd option. She has zero chance in the primary process but that is not the end of the road.
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
The polls which show erosion of support for Trump if he's convicted of a felony - which I'm going to take as conviction in the classified document case or in the federal Jan 6th case - were particularly relevant as they were exit polls of Republican caucus voters.

I agree that 30-35% of Trump's base are MAGA diehards who could care less, but that's not the entire Republican electorate.

You're free to discount the polling if you wish, but I think it's relevant.
===
As for what might rescue Democrats absent a Trump felony conviction... numerous factors are in play, particularly abortion. If, in swing states, Democrats are successful in getting abortion rights measures to appear on their ballots, this will have a big impact in turnout of woman voters the vast majority of whom will vote Democrat.

Although it remains to be seen how impactful the House's refusal to take up the bipartisan immigration bill passed by the Senate, one would think that the hypocrisy this action lays bare could well sway some few voters.

Then there's the repeated bullshit impeachment attempts that the House keeps trying to pull off. This behavior rankles many folks.

And on and on.

It's really amazing that the race is going to be close. Biden should win this thing by a landslide.
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Its to far out for polling - there is a tsunami to go under the bridge before election day.
 
TinFoilHat said:
If Trump is Jailed and Haley becomes the nominee she wins.

However I see both houses being controlled by the Dems.
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Do you think MAGA is going to support Haley, or stay home (or write in Trump?) Or maybe Trump runs as a third party candidate from his jail cell, or endorses a proxy. She can win independents I guess but without the MAGA base I don't think she has much of a chance vs. Biden.
 
FogBlueInSanFran said:
Do you think MAGA is going to support Haley, or stay home (or write in Trump?) Or maybe Trump runs as a third party candidate from his jail cell, or endorses a proxy. She can win independents I guess but without the MAGA base I don't think she has much of a chance vs. Biden.
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I think they'll stay at home.

Hayley will win. Biden would beat the Mango Mussolini but she will defeat him purely on coming across younger.
 
TinFoilHat said:
I think they'll stay at home.

Hayley will win. Biden would beat the Mango Mussolini but she will defeat him purely on coming across younger.
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Well, she isn't getting Democrats and she's said she'd pardon Trump so that isn't going to go over well with independents who view him unfavo(u)rably. She'll have to kowtow to the base to get them to show up which will turn off some independents too. What could happen is Democrats stay home without Trump to vote against. Once again, the critical issue in any scenario is blue turnout.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
I agree that 90-95% of Trump's base are MAGA diehards
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FTFY

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Don't expect logical ethical decisions from that lot. Their #1 mission in life is to OWN THE LIBS - fuck the constitution, fuck democracy, fuck America, fuck common sense, fuck decency!

Just think about it.. why would 74 million people vote for a Russian puppet? It's about hurting the people they hate most - libs!

TinFoilHat said:
If Trump is Jailed and Haley becomes the nominee she wins.

However I see both houses being controlled by the Dems.
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You're missing something.

If Trump is elected.. he is POTUS and can pardon himself. He will be the MAGA nominee in November jailed or not.
 
Blue_Lightsaber said:
You're missing something.

If Trump is elected.. he is POTUS and can pardon himself. He will be the MAGA nominee in November jailed or not.
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He'll definitely try it. But it's not confirmed whether you can pardon yourself. The main school of thought is that presidents can't do that.

Logically if he was barred from office he couldn't obtain the powers of the office to then pardon himself. But if he has enough power and backing that won't count for much in the real world.
 
Mr Kobayashi said:
He'll definitely try it. But it's not confirmed whether you can pardon yourself. The main school of thought is that presidents can't do that.

Logically if he was barred from office he couldn't obtain the powers of the office to then pardon himself. But if he has enough power and backing that won't count for much in the real world.
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The self-pardon was confirmed as an available option during the Nixon era (including pre-emptive pardoning), but no one (including Nixon) thought there'd be any political capital and he would have been impeached anyhow. The option was he'd pardon himself and then resign. By the end Nixon assumed he'd likely be going to jail. He remarked that some of the best political writing of the era had been done in jail (he meant Gandhi, not Hitler). He had no sense nor idea that Ford would pardon him. But as craven, paranoid and morally-broken as Nixon was, Trump is on a whole different plane -- who he hurts, how he's thought of by history and the mark he makes on American society is irrelevant to him. That wasn't true of Nixon.
 
FogBlueInSanFran said:
The self-pardon was confirmed as an available option during the Nixon era (including pre-emptive pardoning), but no one (including Nixon) thought there'd be any political capital and he would have been impeached anyhow. The option was he'd pardon himself and then resign. By the end Nixon assumed he'd likely be going to jail. He remarked that some of the best political writing of the era had been done in jail (he meant Gandhi, not Hitler). He had no sense nor idea that Ford would pardon him. But as craven, paranoid and morally-broken as Nixon was, Trump is on a whole different plane -- who he hurts, how he's thought of by history and the mark he makes on American society is irrelevant to him.
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It's not confirmed until there's a test case. Obviously Trump wouldn't resign so it would face far greater political pushback even if it was legal.
 
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