President Trump

KS55 said:
THE BEGINNING OF THE END.
Donald Trump is toast. He owes more than half a billion dollars in court judgements and he doesn’t have the money. He cannot expunge these debts through bankruptcy and he has to start paying E Jean Carrol before the end of February.
How much does he have? Investigative journos are beavering away and seem to be settling around one billion as an interim estimate. It is unknown at this stage how much equity he has in his real estate. My guess is that the property is mortgaged to the hilt.
Narcissism insulates its sufferers from reality, but reality is about to bite him in the bum. He cannot raise a bond needed before he can appeal. He asked the court for a stay of execution but Judge Engoron denied that in a two sentence memo.
Letitia James and the lawyers of E Jean Carrol will now start the process of seizing assets assuming Trump does not find the cash from somewhere. Will anyone be stupid enough to lend it to him? I doubt it. The Republican party cannot raise it.
The man who tried to persuade Forbes that he was worth 6 billion dollars is a busted flush.
Bye bye Donald.
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Its decision time for the GOP mega donors.

There are right wing arse holes out there with deep pockets. The money can be found if they want to back their man. Or is now the time to cut him loose and let him drown in his debts.

The problem for the GOP is this will be a slow drawn out drowning where he can fight paying the money for months and the state will go after his assets. All the time he defends other criminal cases in court. And wins primaries and heads to the convention to collect his crown. Even if someone puts up the money, its going to get ugly.
 
Gareth Barry Conlon said:
Its decision time for the GOP mega donors.

There are right wing arse holes out there with deep pockets. The money can be found if they want to back their man. Or is now the time to cut him loose and let him drown in his debts.

The problem for the GOP is this will be a slow drawn out drowning where he can fight paying the money for months and the state will go after his assets. All the time he defends other criminal cases in court. And wins primaries and heads to the convention to collect his crown. Even if someone puts up the money, its going to get ugly.
Click to expand...
The polls suggest that swathes of voters will abandon him if he gets a federal conviction. He will. In that case the mega donors may back another horse.
 
KS55 said:
THE BEGINNING OF THE END.
Donald Trump is toast. He owes more than half a billion dollars in court judgements and he doesn’t have the money. He cannot expunge these debts through bankruptcy and he has to start paying E Jean Carrol before the end of February.
How much does he have? Investigative journos are beavering away and seem to be settling around one billion as an interim estimate. It is unknown at this stage how much equity he has in his real estate. My guess is that the property is mortgaged to the hilt.
Narcissism insulates its sufferers from reality, but reality is about to bite him in the bum. He cannot raise a bond needed before he can appeal. He asked the court for a stay of execution but Judge Engoron denied that in a two sentence memo.
Letitia James and the lawyers of E Jean Carrol will now start the process of seizing assets assuming Trump does not find the cash from somewhere. Will anyone be stupid enough to lend it to him? I doubt it. The Republican party cannot raise it.
The man who tried to persuade Forbes that he was worth 6 billion dollars is a busted flush.
Bye bye Donald.
Click to expand...

One of my favourite forms of entertainment over the past few weeks has been reading the interactions between Judge Engoron and Trump's lawyers on the docket. The two sentence email memo responding to the lawyer's argument that the short timelines are infringing on Trump's appellate rights is exactly the way children like this should be dealt with:

You have failed to explain, much less justify, any basis for a stay. I am confident that the Appellate Division will protect your appellate rights.
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KS55 said:
The polls suggest that swathes of voters will abandon him if he gets a federal conviction. He will. In that case the mega donors may back another horse.
Click to expand...
The problem for them is they have to decide now.

He has deadlines to put up the cash so he can then appeal. No cash and he has to just accept the judgment and move on.

Those calls to donors will be going in now. But it can't be a great sell. His legal defence was terrible and his appeal would only be worse. And with other cases about to start it will all just get lost in the noise. He's basically asking for half a billion to keep the pretence up that he has a valid legal defence. It ultimatley wont work. That's a lot of money for very little gain. But the GOP are all in on this so maybe he does get it together.
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
One of my favourite forms of entertainment over the past few weeks has been reading the interactions between Judge Engoron and Trump's lawyers on the docket. The two sentence email memo responding to the lawyer's argument that the short timelines are infringing on Trump's appellate rights is exactly the way children like this should be dealt with:
Click to expand...
Yeah, brilliant response knowing Trump asked for a stay because he can’t afford to appeal.
Engoron has been masterful. No appeal would succeed.
 
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Gareth Barry Conlon said:
The problem for them is they have to decide now.

He has deadlines to put up the cash so he can then appeal. No cash and he has to just accept the judgment and move on.

Those calls to donors will be going in now. But it can't be a great sell. His legal defence was terrible and his appeal would only be worse. And with other cases about to start it will all just get lost in the noise. He's basically asking for half a billion to keep the pretence up that he has a valid legal defence. It ultimatley wont work. That's a lot of money for very little gain. But the GOP are all in on this so maybe he does get it together.
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I know this is a really depressing view - but I wonder if Trump announcing personal bankruptcy would actually have a bigger impact on the polls than any federal charges. Given he is personally liable for the fraud, he can't limit it to a business liability. As others have mentioned, this could be where the Ponzi scheme falls in. If his business is very highly leveraged, as suspected, and they find he doesn't have enough net capital to cover the charges, there's a very real scenario where he could end up without a pot to piss in. Trump Tower gone, Mar-a-Lago gone.

That would be quite the illusion-shattering eventuality for his supporters. This bloke who has them all convinced he is some super billionaire, now can't afford his fake tan because of a $350m settlement. It doesn't factually scan does it? He has to have lied to them at that stage. Could be an emperor's new clothes moment.
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
I know this is a really depressing view - but I wonder if Trump announcing personal bankruptcy would actually have a bigger impact on the polls than any federal charges. Given he is personally liable for the fraud, he can't limit it to a business liability. As others have mentioned, this could be where the Ponzi scheme falls in. If his business is very highly leveraged, as suspected, and they find he doesn't have enough net capital to cover the charges, there's a very real scenario where he could end up without a pot to piss in. Trump Tower gone, Mar-a-Lago gone.

That would be quite the illusion-shattering eventuality for his supporters. This bloke who has them all convinced he is some super billionaire, now can't afford his fake tan because of a $350m settlement. It doesn't factually scan does it? He has to have lied to them at that stage. Could be an emperor's new clothes moment.
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It feels like that is where its headed but he's such a narcissist that you wonder if he could ever sign up to a personal bankruptcy filing.

I suspect he'd rather make his creditors fight for everything including having to take assets by force. And he could play this out for years. But ultimately he will likely lose all the Trump organisation assets. Including MarLago.

I suspect he just won't appeal and then these cases will just bubble along in the background. His criminal stuff will take centre stage.
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
I know this is a really depressing view - but I wonder if Trump announcing personal bankruptcy would actually have a bigger impact on the polls than any federal charges. Given he is personally liable for the fraud, he can't limit it to a business liability. As others have mentioned, this could be where the Ponzi scheme falls in. If his business is very highly leveraged, as suspected, and they find he doesn't have enough net capital to cover the charges, there's a very real scenario where he could end up without a pot to piss in. Trump Tower gone, Mar-a-Lago gone.

That would be quite the illusion-shattering eventuality for his supporters. This bloke who has them all convinced he is some super billionaire, now can't afford his fake tan because of a $350m settlement. It doesn't factually scan does it? He has to have lied to them at that stage. Could be an emperor's new clothes moment.
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Image the application for bankruptcy:
“Your honour, I am completely tapped out and need the protection of bankruptcy”
—-”Mr Trump, I have studied your statement of assets which you issued and defended in court. Go use them.”
”But your honour, those assets don’t exist.”
—“Oh really. Now you tell us. Looks like perjury to me. Ask the brilliant Alina Habba how you might get out of this. Application denied”
 
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FogBlueInSanFran said:
There won't be another one along in a few minutes because of the unique combination of his incredible pathological narcissism, off-the-scale amorality, and immense wealth. His intelligence doesn't figure into that picture.

I've said it a few times: I'm in real estate finance. I knew this guy was the absolute worst of the worst in 1989 when I was just starting my career due to first-hand experience. He was a bully, and a fucking dumb as shit bully, because the arguments for why he deserved a loan were inane, his threats if we said no ludicrous (and would have been ineffectual if he'd tried to make good on them), his track record as a businessman already in tatters, and his refusal to provide his tax returns for a loan on which we demanded -- for starters -- a personal guarantee patently ridiculous.

But he found money -- plenty of it -- from others. In fact that's been true his whole life. So I would say his determination to find people dumb enough to trust him is a hallmark of his. Is that persistence, or intelligence?
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He inherited all that wealth and effectively blew it all. It was only when 'The Apprentice' decided to use him that his 'brand' got a boost and he made a revival via NBC pay and options. He was for all intents on the verge of being completely broke and finished.
 
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