US Politics Thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter Ric
  • Start date Start date
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
I've posted the same sort of comment as the one that follows numerous times; it feels like I'm beating a dead horse, LOL. Nonetheless... once more unto the breach, dear friends...

If it's true that Trump has absolutely no chance, then you must accept that pollsters are completely inept.

I don't believe that polling is wildly off.

Moreover, if Trump has no chance, then bettors are dead wrong as well: https://www.oddschecker.com/us/insi...024-exploring-the-odds-and-potential-outcomes

I take solace in the fact that we're so far out from election day that there's every chance that odds will swing back once more in favor of Biden. But honestly, if we had to vote for the US President tomorrow, then it's Biden - not Trump - who would have very little chance.
Click to expand...
Yes. The polls are off and the odds are even for party winner (still plenty think the Dems will have another candidate).

But the polls sway the betting and I’m not arsed by either. Trump won’t win.
 
The key take away from the polls and the primary votes is that up to 40% of registered republicans are not supporting Trump and exit polls show about 25% of them will vote Biden. Trump is a dead man walking.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
I've posted the same sort of comment as the one that follows numerous times; it feels like I'm beating a dead horse, LOL. Nonetheless... once more unto the breach, dear friends...

If it's true that Trump has absolutely no chance, then you must accept that pollsters are completely inept.

I don't believe that polling is wildly off.

Moreover, if Trump has no chance, then bettors are dead wrong as well: https://www.oddschecker.com/us/insi...024-exploring-the-odds-and-potential-outcomes

I take solace in the fact that we're so far out from election day that there's every chance that odds will swing back once more in favor of Biden. But honestly, if we had to vote for the US President tomorrow, then it's Biden - not Trump - who would have very little chance.
Click to expand...
If you look at actual vote outcomes vs polling over the last couple of years then Trump in his primaries and the GOP generally has significantly underperformed vs polling.

And polling at primaries confirms a good chunk of gop voters don't want Trump. If Hayley stays in the game to the end those primaries will be a good indicator.

Odds on Biden or Trump to win are crazy considering its a 2 horse race. You can treble your money on Biden. It's mad.
 
SWP's back said:
Yes. The polls are off and the odds are even for party winner (still plenty think the Dems will have another candidate).

But the polls sway the betting and I’m not arsed by either. Trump won’t win.
Click to expand...
That’s an incredibly bold shout at this point in time.

Trump is going to get his 70+ million votes and so Biden will have to at least match the 2020 turnout which right now would be a miracle.
 
Iassel said:
That’s an incredibly bold shout at this point in time.

Trump is going to get his 70+ million votes and so Biden will have to at least match the 2020 turnout which right now would be a miracle.
Click to expand...
I think you’re right, Trump will win it and you get your choice.
 
Iassel said:
That’s an incredibly bold shout at this point in time.

Trump is going to get his 70+ million votes and so Biden will have to at least match the 2020 turnout which right now would be a miracle.
Click to expand...
It wont be. The alternative to Joe Biden is voting for that prick. People wont do it
 
Iassel said:
That’s an incredibly bold shout at this point in time.

Trump is going to get his 70+ million votes and so Biden will have to at least match the 2020 turnout which right now would be a miracle.
Click to expand...
“Bold shout”?

His statement is based on the fact that Trump is consistently underachieving what the polls say he’ll do.

Yours is based on nothing.
 
US Green Berets reportedly permanently based in Taiwan for 1st time American military advisors permanently stationed in Army amphibious bases in Kinmen and Penghu
By Keoni Everington, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
 
Uncle Wally One Ball said:
It wont be. The alternative to Joe Biden is voting for that prick. People wont do it
Click to expand...
The alternative is simply not voting, which a lot of people right now are suggesting they’ll do, and is the only way Trump can win
FogBlueInSanFran said:
“Bold shout”?

His statement is based on the fact that Trump is consistently underachieving what the polls say he’ll do.

Yours is based on nothing.
Click to expand...
i mean as said many times, I hope your belief that it’s fine to put your head in the sand and say it’ll never happen is correct, equally though it’s based on your belief that polls are nonsense rather than anything factual.
 
Some speculation that the SCOTUS will release their 14th Amendment decision today. They have given an unusually short window of notice that they are going to release “a decision” but they don’t tell anybody which decision. Plus it is the day before Super Tuesday so the timing would make sense.

The verdict is almost certainly going to be that Trump stays on the ballot (I would say 95%+ with a decent chance that the decision is unanimous). The more interesting bit is what guidance they’d offer on how somebody committing insurrection can be removed from the ballot and what the mechanism for that looks like.
 
SWP's back said:
I think the gap will be larger than 2020. Can’t see how Trump would gain more votes than four years ago in demographics alone, whatever the result of his court cases.
Click to expand...
I know you know but he could win the election with far fewer votes than last time.
 
Iassel said:
The alternative is simply not voting, which a lot of people right now are suggesting they’ll do, and is the only way Trump can win

i mean as said many times, I hope your belief that it’s fine to put your head in the sand and say it’ll never happen is correct, equally though it’s based on your belief that polls are nonsense rather than anything factual.
Click to expand...
The hyperbole and motive-assumption you use to "support" your arguments is getting really aggravating.

Where is the data that says "a lot of people" won't vote?

I'm not putting my head in the sand, I'm not saying it will never happen -- I am asking for the DATA that supports YOUR argument.

I don't believe the polls are "nonsense" -- but I have data that shows Trump's been underperforming what the polls say in the primaries. It's been posted many times by others here.

Where's yours?
 
SCOTUS have predictably moved unanimously in deciding that individual states don’t have the right to keep somebody off the ballot under 14(3). This overturns the Colorado decision.

They went further though, stating that only an act of Congress can make a determination as to whether a person is ineligible under section 3. This part of the issued opinion is not unanimous but landed at 5-4 (Barrett was the dissenting GOP voice), with the other judges mostly contending that it is an error for the court to rule on a question it has not been asked and that Congress may not be the only mechanism for enforcing 14(3).

This second part of the ruling is really problematic because it rules out the possibility that some other process such as federal conviction alone would be sufficient to stop somebody holding office under 14(3). Congress are now the only ones who can make that determination.

Therefore the US finds itself in a situation where somebody can be federally charged and convicted of insurrection and still be eligible for the ballot providing that Congress supports them.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top