President Trump

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

I have no idea how this goes, but I do think it's interesting that Harris is off to campaign in Houston, TX tonight -- which makes little sense unless she feels fairly confident in her chances, and/or Democrats feel like Allred really can beat Ted Cruz (and that race is tight if the polls accurately reflect sentiment).

I've suggested a few times she go to Florida and Texas. In Texas the Allred v Cruz fight is the obvious reason. But I'd suggest doing day after day in the same swing states is not news. If she did Penn and Georgia on alternating days for a week she could attend loads of events but it gets boring and loses impact.

Spend one day in Texas and everyone starts to wonder is she can win in Texas, it way more impact full than another day in Penn. Same with Florida, gets more coverage and puts the opposition on the back foot.

Campaign events don't directly move the dial. They generate news coverage and vibes and the coverage is what drives peoples views and behaviours.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Polls. Aren’t. Reliable. Post. Roe. Vs. Wade. And. Generation. Z. Started. Voting. Those. Fuckers. Don’t. Answer. Withheld. Numbers.

Depends what you mean by reliable.

"Too close to be able to predict" and "moved towards Trump slightly in recent weeks" seem reasonable conclusions to me.

Of course, if you know better, you can easily make a killing betting on your own expertise in this.

 

[west didsblue]

Punk. Chew. Ate. Shun. ?????

Person, Woman, Man, Camera, TV

 

[SWP's back]

Depends what you mean by reliable.

"Too close to be able to predict" and "moved towards Trump slightly in recent weeks" seem reasonable conclusions to me.

Of course, if you know better, you can easily make a killing betting on your own expertise in this.

Have done. Will do.

You may have only been in this thread ten minutes but there are plenty that know I’ve repeatedly put my money where my mouth with on votes against Trump since 2018. Thankfully.

 

[SWP's back]

This doesn’t happen to someone that’s about to smash the election.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Depends what you mean by reliable.

"Too close to be able to predict" and "moved towards Trump slightly in recent weeks" seem reasonable conclusions to me.

Of course, if you know better, you can easily make a killing betting on your own expertise in this.

The problem is the number of polls that are right leaning. And the backward looking methodology. It's becoming less reliable as younger generations don't respond to the methods used in the same way as older generations. So do the pollsters adjust the results to account for it, or just publish the raw data.

The bigger this problem the less accurate the polling and the more scope to engineer the outcome by making selective adjustments.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The problem is the number of polls that are right leaning. And the backward looking methodology. It's becoming less reliable as younger generations don't respond to the methods used in the same way as older generations. So do the pollsters adjust the results to account for it, or just publish the raw data.

The bigger this problem the less accurate the polling and the more scope to engineer the outcome by making selective adjustments.

Yeah, I'm not arguing polls are precise predictors

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

This doesn’t happen to someone that’s about to smash the election.

True, though that's the e-coli outbreak more than Trump I think.

 

[SWP's back]

Yeah, I'm not arguing polls are precise predictors

And I made a fortune in the midterms when they were expecting a red wave and ended up with nothing if the like.

Pollsters will very shortly be going out of business as people under 30 simply do not answer the calls. And those that do tend to be right wing.

 

[SWP's back]

True, though that's the e-coli outbreak more than Trump I think.

If E. coli had a human face….

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

This doesn’t happen to someone that’s about to smash the election.

Funnily enough, I was just looking at that. It's a fair drop off for a single day trading. Rallied a bit in the afternoon and looks to be on the way back up this morning, but it's hard to tell which way this is going to go.

 

[KS55]

In a poll where the margin of error is, say 3%, a swing of 0.5% to Trump from poll1 to poll 2 is of no statistical significance whatsoever.

 

[bluenova]

In a poll where the margin of error is, say 3%, a swing of 0.5% to Trump from poll1 to poll 2 is of no statistical significance whatsoever.

Very true - but I don't think that's what we're seeing in the US polls.

If it's the same polling company comparing their one weekly poll, then all those X is +1 and Y is -1, don't prove anything on their own.

However, where you have multiple polls combined, showing a trend over time, then statistically that's the margin of error being all but ironed out. Any poll watcher who sees a poll that's out of sync, or shows a new direction, should always wait for further evidence.

In the US, there has definitely been movement towards Trump - and that's showing in multiple state level polls, where the majority of the close races have flipped from Harris to Trump. Some of those changes will be well within the margin of error, but put together, it's a real trend.

Now, as @SWP's back has pointed out, there are problems with polling beyond the margin of error, which will skew all polling. I'm not sure I agree that it's definitely giving them a pro-Trump bias, as there are reasons why Trump supporters may also be under-polled. These effects also change between elections, with the polling companies having to be careful not to over-correct for the bias they showed in the previous campaign.

 

[west didsblue]

If E. coli had a human face….

View attachment 135955

He’s such a fucking freak.

How any adult thinks it’s a good look to smear orange colouring over their face and colour their hair bright yellow at any age never mind when nearly 80 is just bizarre.

The fact that around 70 million nutters will vote that piece of human excrement is even more weird.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

Person, Woman, Man, Camera, TV

I know what you mean!

 

[Blue Elvis]

Strongly recommend the latest episode of Jon Stewart's "The Daily Show" on YouTube.

Hilarious take down of the Orange one and his moronic supporters !

Only in the USA ;-)

 

[BlueHammer85]

But what ever we all think of Trump he really is like a comic sketch. I listen to him and can't help but think he is hilarious. Is that just me? I can understand why people vote for him even though he is literally one of the most controversial characters. One thing we can't call him is avoiding his own opinion unlike Harris.

About as funny as sitting in the Spurs end as they hammered West Ham the other day.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

I’m not going to ask where they are, but they are chickenshit cowards, both of them.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Really anyone believing these recent Trump surrogate polls needs to give their heads a wobble. The real data, that is registration and early voting suggests that Trump is toast, which maybe one reason he's sped off to Florida where Harris now has the "big Mo"
But of course the corporate media is desperate for a race and to keep the Trump clown show going in order to keep the ad men intersted.

In that case surely lump loads on Harris at 11/8 right now ?

 

[metalblue]

In a poll where the margin of error is, say 3%, a swing of 0.5% to Trump from poll1 to poll 2 is of no statistical significance whatsoever.

Margin of error is 1 divided by the square root of sample size. So in a sample of 16 people the square root of 16 is 4 and 1 divided by 4 = 25% margin of error.

A sample size of 1000 is about 3.2%